Withers

[johndrj]

BB\'s Best look extremely solid.

John

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I dont think Survivalist will hit the top three in there. If he does I\'ll reconsider his Wood.

[NoCarolinaTony]

I\'m Betting Anthony J. cause thats my name!!

How\'s that for handicapping?...actually he has run well angainst some good 2 year olds (now 3) and was coming strong in the end of last race (need more distance), been working well. Think mile will be good starting point for this one. Will be long, and will play small exacta\'s with Scrappy T, BB Best and Proud Acolade.

It\'s a sucker hunch play. What can i say.

(But if you really look at horses figs they are improving every race, and last fig fits with these, and he\'s fresh)

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

Well anthony J got Scratched ......That save a few bucks for the derby Trial then.

NC Tony

I think BB\'s Best is the most probable winner. He\'s coming out of the fast paced Florida Derby and he held fairly well against better horses than these. I expect a lifetime top.

I\'m very interested to see how Scrappy T. does. He was very close to Bellamy Road in the Wood. The Wood pace was in line with the final time (Which was obviously blazing. So that means the pace was also  blazing for the class). That means that Scrappy T ran a terrific race by being so close and not packing it in badly. On the flip side, the track looked friendly to speed that day. I think Scappy T\'s performance here could give us a clue about the quality of Bellamy Road\'s performance. I expect him to run well here. I think BR\'s pace cooked several of those cheap horses in the Wood.

Proud Accolade may be well suited to 8F around 1 turn. (off track is a ?) He can\'t be as bad as he ran in the Rushway (on slop) and would be tough to beat if he could make the leap from his 2YO form to 3 (with just the typical improvement). Plus this is Pletcher!

I think the horse to key against is Survivalist \"if he takes some serious money\". The Gotham was not an especially good field and he wasn\'t as good as Scrappy T in the Wood. He was well off BR\'s pace and just sucked up for second.

May be worth spreading in the exactas against Survivalist.



Post Edited (04-30-05 16:13)

[TGJB]

Just so that everyone is on the same page, tomorrow, when everything is in the RBR, note that Survivalist, at the weights, goes in as the 6th fastest horse in the race (based on tops). Whether he goes forward-- and he might-- or not,  his FINISH POSITION will not reflect on his Wood number.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I can\'t believe Scrappy T is twice the price of Survivalist. Theres a fair amount of pace. The post may not be ideal and he could go wider than you\'d like but still.

CTC,

IMO PAB at 14-1 is a must use the in the exactas also. I\'m spreading.

TGJB,

I think there\'s no way to avoid looking at the performances of Survivalist and Scrappy T today for clues about the Wood.

Come to PAPPA!!!!!!!    Exacta!!!!

Baby baby baby!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

lol

[TGJB]

We put this horse up in the analysis, and I managed to get tied up doing other stuff and not bet the race. I would have used the winner and third horse, had to have this tri.

But no, we didn\'t need this to know the Wood was right, since we know they don\'t run at the same level every time. I mean, do you look at the winner, or Survivalist?

I\'m talking about figures here, CH-- not your other stuff.

TGJB,

\"But no, we didn\'t need this to know the Wood was right, since we know they don\'t run at the same level every time. I mean, do you look at the winner, or Survivalist?\"

I hear you. I think you have the Wood right to begin with.

I just thought Scrappy T ran a lot better than Survivalist in that race because he was close to BR\'s pace and held tough.

I\'m too happy to debate anyway. I just made a really nice score. My most probable winner was BBB, but I equal weighted the exactas to beat Survivalist because I thought the most value was on the 1 and 8. So this was terrific outcome. I started out the year terribly and just went heavily black in the last 2 weekends. :-)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

That was not a difficult winner, but his Wood effort was not near the same race. Horses don\'t run with slipped saddles. Everything gets out of gear. Its why he crashed in 28 plus the last 1/8th

[Captain Stormfield]

Okay, I\'ll bite.  How do you get \"28 plus the last 1/8th\"?