Bellamy Road

[jimbo66]

Miff,

Agreed completely.  I have watched and re-watched the GP race and the Wood.  He never looked rank in either race.  At one point early in the GP race the other favorite came up next to him and pressed him, but he didn\'t seem to accelerate or act rank, but rather kept at his normal pace.

But he will probably be behind at least one horse in the Derby and I think Chuckles is right in that how he reacts to that is part of the puzzle this year.  It would seem loigcal to build a small premium into the price you are willing to accept on Bellamy to factor in the chance that he may not want to run from off another horse.

[davidrex]

     ctc,

your waddling again...you self proclaimed the title on yourself!..look it up it\'s in the archives

the amount of information you bring forward and your linkups...truly breath taking...but alas the \'m\' must be removed.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

No he\'s most certainly not \"rank speed\", however, he has caught some very kind pace scenarios. If he\'s left alone to do his thing, hes very happy on the lead. It may be pressure unravels him. It may have in the past. He\'s gonna see a big crowd and in all likelihood the toughest pace scenario  hes ever come across. Its debateable whether he\'s been the best working horse at Churchill. (Some think he hasn\'t worked there particularly well as compared to the pre Wood work.) Granted he had to win that Wood to get in the Derby. And then there is the bounce angle in regard to the Wood effort.

Alot depends upon how a handicapper evaluates loose on the lead wins. Some give more weight to a win like Bandini\'s last.

[TGJB]

CTC-- let me get this straight. You think someone is 60% to win this race, and someone else is 20%?

[gvido]

Go over to the nyra site and watch the Wood. Bellamy was being pushed along by Going Wild then Scrappy T for 5f when BR just dusted them off.

That was a strong gallop out after the wire also.

I firmly believe BR is an all or nothing proposition. Either wins easily or he\'s off the board all together.

btw: plenty of angst, gnashing of teeth over BR\'s work on 4/21 in 1.02.8.

How many were in 58 or 59 and change......none

How many were 1.00 and change......uhhh none.

The bullet for the day 1.01.2, not a very glib surface.

BR\'s work just a leg stretcher, imo.

[miff]

Jim,

I am thinking that the result of the Derby may be obvious(like I felt last year).We have in BR,arguably, the fastest three year old ever, rested,training very well and in the care of a proven 3yr classic trainer. For me, that\'s a lot, the price may suck.

If he continues to train well up to Saturday, draws ok and looks good parading, I\'ll probably step out good if he\'s 4 to 1 or better and use him first and second in the exotics.

I\'m a little sentimentally challenged this year because the owner of Noble Causeway is a friend of mine and I may pass and just root Len home.With so many fast fig horses going in, we all may be over analyzing the race looking for bombs.

[miff]

CtC,

I speak to two people every day at CD.BR looks \"monstrous\" according to them. Curious, where did you get the \"knocks\" on BR\'s training from?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff, someone said the expert horse watchers thought Smarty J\'s coat was looking ragged in his Keeneland works last year. He was working up a storm during that time per the posted works. The times were brilliant.

Who here has had a chance to watch Bellamania work? Nevertheless, they\'ve raved about his works at Churchill downs, but the times are not outstanding, regardless of \"Finally\" being pulled up. His best work at Churchill was April 3rd prior to the Wood. That 1.02.3 was not stellar.

If you go to Steve Haskins article about Bandini\'s last work he fawns all over him. But he does the same for many horses working that day.

http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=27920


His words yesterday about Bellamania\'s last work were \"If you liked him, this work was impressive and won\'t discourage you.\" By all accounts it was a 1.00.2 He galloped out in 1.28 and 1.44 Unless you\'re there you can\'t see them, but figures and times aren\'t subjective. They tell their own story and if you use figures enough you can project the imagery without seeing. Theres better working horses at Churchill Downs.

TGJB, saying this in the third person is difficult, but there appears to be a horse in this field advantaged sufficiently by the variables (post excepted, track bias not considered) to win this race over half the time it is run. Figures, Pace, Form and likely position evaluated. The other horse that has a big chance is Bellamy on the probability that Tgraph is correct about the Wood and that he could freak and overcome the obstacles. The rest of the possible winners (5) have an estimated aggregate 20% chance. 13 horses have been eliminated as possible winners.

It may not hold up. Some seem to recall a statement in a recent ROTW that Between Consolidator and High Limit they aggregated a 75% chance to win the race. Because they didn\'t that doesn\'t mean they weren\'t well positioned to do so.

[Wrongly]

Jimbo the favorite in the GP race you were talking about was Dearest Mon.  I was there in person that day and BR just ran Dearest Mon into the ground before they even hit the turn.  Dearest Mon was a well regarded colt at the time breaking his maiden against Noble Causeway by 3 lengths.  I think the play against is AA not BR, he was slow early and pushed extensively in the stretch.  Now if he runs a similar race in the Derby he will have to make up at least 15 lengths, traffic problems and a questionable jock.

[jimbo66]

Miff,

You could be right about this being an \"obvious\" type of year.  I came away from the Wood overwhelmed and made a sizable bet in the futures taking 8.5 to 1 on \"any horse to win the triple crown\".  I wanted to bet Bellamy to win the Derby then, but it was too late to get value.  I posted here about that triple crown bet, saying it was one way to get value, if Bellamy really is a standout.  Since then, I have been trying to find excuses to look for value in the Derby, but Bellamy may just be too good.  Interesting that you mention Noble Causeway, he is the horse I am trying to convince myself to bet.  I like his breeding, running style and think he could move up on Derby day.  I loved his Florida Derby, it was \"Real Quiet-like\" to me.

Wrongly,

Agreed.  AA could be a play-against.  Greeley\'s Galaxy for me is also a \"play against\".  

Chuckles,

You do some serious research and post insightful comments about half the time.  But man, the other half are ridiculous.  Somebody being 60% to win this race and somebody else being 20%.  That might rank as the most ridiculous \"handicapping\" statement ever posted here.......

No offense intended.

[gowand]

I really have a hard time throwing AA out based not only on the numbers but also on running style.  Although I am worried about the jock, AA has shown me a great ability to run covered up by horses and not be intimidated despite his size.  He actually seems to relish running in traffic which is an obvious plus in a field of this size.  He has shown the ability to run big despite being taken all over the track by Rose in a number of starts.  I don\'t think he needs a great trip to run in the exacta.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Well, it might be worth the time to review Bellamania\'s races on video. Some aren\'t the best trip handicappers but in the Lanes End Futurity who believes that Bellamy hustled for a lead, faced an early challenge, held it safe and caved when facing a second and more significant challenge? Almost like since he wasn\'t leading the race was over? An immediate fold once headed from behind.

There was more in the Wood and the horse does have pretty good early foot, especially when hes leaning in on his only competition in the race. He also runs with his head a little high and a little too much head movement, especially under pressure. Additionally his stride is nice left alone, but its nowhere near as large as some have opined.  

The way to beat this horse is test him early and challenge him late. In the Lanes end the same horse did it. There just wasn\'t sufficient quality to do that in his last two races.

Additionally, High Limit wasn\'t as ragged at the end of the Bluegrass as he first appeared. He moved to the inside after heading Spanish Chestnut and that may not have been the wisest move. While there he jumped shadows at least twice and certainly looks to have broken his momentum. Bandini on the other hand stayed three wide throughout and was probably advantaged by the anti rail bias. Post wire it certainly appeared that Sun King had the best energy, but Bandini is reported to be a quick stopper after the work is done.



Post Edited (05-02-05 23:26)

[jimbo66]

Chuckles,

I assume you have heard/read that Bellamy got hurt in the Lanes End.  I guess you don\'t believe that and think that he got run into the ground?  

I usually don\'t buy the \"excuse injuries\", but based on evidence before and after, this one looks like it could be legit.  They did lay him up after the race and hold him out until late this spring.  Hence the two preps.

\"I assume you have heard/read that Bellamy got hurt in the Lanes End. I guess you don\'t believe that and think that he got run into the ground? \"

I asked about this a few weeks ago and no one responded.

Where did you read that?

I actually think an injury in that race increases the probability that this horse could be something special instead of a one hit wonder.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

He took a funny step after he was headed. They said he was injured in the race?  Depending on the severity of it, sure it can affect performance. Zito was saying he thinks this horse can rate, which tends to indicate he can\'t and it could be strategy so the others dont get right on the gas so he can. Biancone should instruct his jockey to try and bury them with a quick burst. Spanish Chestnut is liable to be a big load for Bellmany, because he ran almost directly into the Bias in the Bluegrass and hung around for some time.

An injury could also mean hes prone to overextend himself in a jam. This horse does not move especially pretty.



Post Edited (05-02-05 23:37)