New Top to Win the Derby?

[HP]

High Limit will not wear blinks in the Derby.  Frankel said this last week (I read it on kentuckyderby.com).  12-1 is more like it.  HP

[jimbo66]

FlushedStraight,

I would give you 25-1 on High Limit going off at 25-1.

Over/Under on High Limit is 10-1, which is still a good price.

He is getting raves on his training.  On bloodhorse.com they call him the star of the morning workouts.

Plus Bobby Frankel gets bet.

The Derby odds board is the toughest to predict.  Every year one or two horses get bet down for seemingly no reason and one or two horses that are expected to be bet, drift up.  The Cliff\'s Edge was the morning line favorite and he went off at 8-1 or so, I believe.

[Michael D.]

jim,
HL is 22-1? how\'s he going to drift down to 10-1? do you mean HF? he\'s 10-1 right now...

[jimbo66]

No Michael.

I mean High Limit.

Watch the board on Saturday.  He will be around 10-1.  

It is a prediction.  Obviously, who knows what he really will go off at.

High Fly will be around 8-1.  I think the margin of error there is less.  I can\'t see him being much shorter or longer than that.

Good to see you are still around Michael D.  I thought you dropped off the face of the earth, on Derby week no less!!

[richiebee]

Re: High Limit

Flushed, we\'ve had this dialogue before. Greeley\'s Galaxy and High Limit have had 4 lifetime starts. No horse since Exterminator(1918)has won after only 4 prior starts. Of the two, I might think GG has a better chance of winning (or running in the tri or super)because all 4 of his starts have been as a 3YO and he probably has more foundation.

If you tell me that very few animals have tried to win the Derby in their 5th L/T start, that may support my belief more than weaken it.

Frankel\'s best job with HL has been that he has acted enthusiastic about his colt\'s chances. In truth, owners Gary and Mary West pointed this colt to the Derby the moment they moved him from Tony Dutrow to Frankel.

After HL\'s BG, when he was both beaten out of the gate by a horse and passed by a horse for the first time, I\'m sure if it were up to the trainer and not the owners, HL would have reemerged in the Peter Pan (1 turn) at Bel or maybe even the Preakness.

Maybe I am just mad at the Wests because they were the first owners who had a horse with its own website (Dollar Bill). As Ignatius Reilly would say, horses with their own websites offend all notions of taste and decency.

With regards to Ramon Dominquez his riding style resembles very closely that of his self professed idol, Edgar Prado. I am anxious for Ramon to ride at NYRA full time,
and think he would enjoy great success



Post Edited (05-03-05 17:09)

[flushedstraight]

Richie, at 10-1 I\'m with you 100%

at 20-1 I\'m willing to take a chance he can get position, rate, and last for a piece.

out of the list you previously posted of the recent entrants with only 4 starts, several finished in the money even though none won. At 10-1 that doesn\'t inspire much excitement, and looks like an underlay.

Enjoy Belmont. There will be at least 200 races out there this year more bettable than this derby horror.

[bloodline bob]

Did I see here that Wilko raced with bar shoes last time? Can someone confirm that?

[gvido]

Yup, since Holly.

[Michael D.]

jim,
odds they \"x\" .....?

big tops entering the derby (name, degree of top, degree of bounce)

indian charlie - 4 pt top - back 1.5
chilito - 7 pt top - back 14
first american - 4 pt top - back 9
valhol - 5 pt top - back 6
stephen got even - 4 pt top - 6 back
general challenge - 5 pt top - 2 back
charismatic - 5 pt top - PAIR.. THE ONLY ONE!
more than ready - 3 pt top - 3 back
war chant - 3.5 pt top - 5 back
keats - 17 pt top - 22 back
S&P - 4 pt top - 12 back
millennium wind - 6 pt top - 9 back
jamaica run - 5 pt top - 5 back
private emblem - 4 pt top - 5 back
ten most wanted - 5 pt top - 2 back
scrimshaw - 6 pt top - 2 back
indian express - 6 pt top - 9 back
brancusi - 3 pt top - 11 back

no complaints, i did this very quickly....
these are all of the big tops going into the derby over the last eight years. yes, there is only one pair, and no new top. do you really want to own these tickets (aside from lucas)?



Post Edited (05-03-05 20:31)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Nice quick rundown michael. I did notice three 5 point tops with good results if you\'re thinking Bellamy. One a pair, two with 2 pt regressions. If Bellamy ran a legit Neg 5, A 2 point regression probably wins the race.

[Michael D.]

no definite conclusions here. out of the four that jim mentioned, i would guess that two \"x\" pretty good, one runs ok, and one beats the \"x\" (within two or three lengths of top). still deciding myself, and still deciding which of the others are due for a jump.....

and jim, 40-1 that all four \"x\" is tempting.



Post Edited (05-03-05 21:22)

[Silver Charm]

Michael D,

You have succeeded in confusing me even further. If the statistical history doesn\'t look good for horses who go into the Derby OFF New Tops and the statistical history doesn\'t look good for horses who go in to the trying to run a New Top.

Then who\'s left.

Using this type of backing in to the possible winners approach leaves you with horses such as High Fly, High Limit and I guess Sun King.

Whats that triple pay on a saver ticket?

[Michael D.]

silver,
i listed the statistical history. confuse yourself with it or not - your choice. big new tops to deal with this year (especially with the favorites), some big top info might help.

[Silver Charm]

>confuse yourself with it or not - your choice.

How about this. 6 of the 18 horses you mentioned either paired or backed up three points or less. Thats 33%, just so you don\'t have to get out your calculator.

If Bellamy Road backs up three points or less, and I don\'t think anybody believes he is going to pair up, HE WINS THE RACE.



Post Edited (05-03-05 22:12)

[Michael D.]

silver,
the next 12 \"x\" by an average of 17 lengths. just read my conclusion about the \"x\". i\'m just looking to toss a few favorites in favor of some slower colts who might have a better chance of developing. nothing complicated here.