Davidrix,
Are you reading all the stuff on bloodhorse.com, drf.com, and thoroughbredtimes.com?
Plenty of positive reports about Afleet Alex. Most agile horse, most athletic horse, brilliant workouts, done nothing wrong all week, etc.etc.
Those are just the latest things about the horse. What about the past performances? He is the only one of the 4 \"negative number\" horses that had nice figures as a two year old, so his progression this year is not huge and some would theorize that he is much less likely to bounce. If you throw out the race at Oaklawn where he was sick, he is BY FAR the most consistent performer in the race, racing consistently in top graded stakes and always right there.
On Beyer figures (which most of the betting public uses), Bellamy Road is a \"one race wonder\". Never had a triple digit beyer until the Wood, and thus looks like a huge bounce candidate. T-Graph has the race before the Wood very fast, so he looks better on their figures, but T-Graph\'s market share is not enough to over-ride how Bellamy looks on the Beyer figures.
If John Velasquez was still on the horse, he would be the favorite, I think. And he still could be the favorite, although I have him at 9-2.
Would be pretty surprised to see him go off at 6-1 or better as you are looking for. Who will they bet in leiu of him to drive his price up? Not Bandini. He won\'t be shorter than AA. And Bellamy won\'t be bet down below 5-2, I wouldn\'t think.
