The Case for Wilco

[albany]

Lauren Stich, breeding analyst for the DRF, states on tonight\'s DRF chat room that Wilko \"definitely has a shot at a 1 1/4 and should be among the colts finishing the best.\" She also states that Wilko\'s Dosage of 7 is \"ridiculous.\"



Post Edited (05-05-05 19:44)

[spa]

Albany, you\'re a little late coming to the Wilko bandwagon. This colt will run a big one Saturday...........The biggest longshot looks like Sort It Out. Here\'s where the TG numbers come to play.

[albany]

Spa,

I hope your right on Wilko. I\'ve liked him for quite some time, but I was waiting for his final works and post position before I made any commitment.

What do the TG numbers tell you about Sort It Out? For that matter, what do you think they say about Wilko?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

bloodline bob wrote:

> wilko\'s second dam was effective at 9-10f.

Bob, Wilkos second dam won 22 k in 21 races in the late 80\'s. No Black Type. If she won at 12 marks how relevant is it?

 WIL compares well with the last 2
> winners of the derby who were buy stone sprinters.

Wilko has a improvement chance, its just that I prefer the stamina Dam side.

Maria\' Mon has only a 6.86

Maria\'s Mon is a nice stallion. Hes got a Derby winner and won the B.C. Juvy didn\'t he? Its pedigree i like.

[albany]

Jbelfior:

Sorry for not getting back to you sooner.

Yes, I do think Giacomo is a contender. Too bad I didn\'t follow your logic, sarcastic as it might have been in its expression, when I bet the race!

[jbelfior]

Albany--

I was not trying to be sarcastic. I was trying to get feedback to what I thought may have made some sense.

I did not push hard enough on GIACOMO at the windows using him in exacta boxes. (not CLOSING ARGUMENT)

My wife, of course, said IF you had just bet all that money to win ...blah..blah...blah...blah...blah. Wives are great to have around at that point, aren\'t they? I told her IF the queen had jewels she would be the king.

In hindsight, i believe GIACOMO got real lucky and if one of those other donkeys had run 2nd, i would have been real lucky.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[albany]

Jbelfior:

I must apologize for thinking you were being sarcastic. I was being overly defensive since I had been assailed by an earlier poster. I wish I had given more thought to your post and engaged in a dialogue on Giacomo. It may have helped both of us. In any event, congratulations on having the courage to bet such an outsider.

[bloodline bob]

ctc-

Regarding Wilko we were talking aptitudes not class.  So in the end did he get the trip? I don\'t know.

I don\'t think any of them got it. Slow race on fast track. We\'re breeding milers. And no one\'s going to tell me Giacomo\'s 2:02 4/5 would have beaten Secretariat\'s 1:59 3/5 becasue the scraped the track more back then.

Maria\'s Mon did sire derby winner from mare with tons of stamina. HL doesn\'t have that.

MM won the Champagne and then got hurt.

[HP]

Jbelfior,

You liked Giacomo and didn\'t play any on him to win at 50-1?  Just exactas?  HP

[jbelfior]

HP--

Correct. That\'s why I had to show up for work this morning.

Actually, I liked HIGH LIMIT, HIGH FLY,and NCSWAY whom I boxed.

I then \"used\" GIACOMO as a long shot throw-in with BELLAMY ROAD and the 3 above.

If I had really liked him as my key play, of course I would have bet him to win.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[HP]

Don\'t get me wrong, I\'ve done the same thing 100 times!  HP

[jbelfior]

HP--

I would have been lucky if one of those other stiffs had come 2nd. But I\'d rather be lucky than good.

Let\'s all regroup and get \'em in Baltimore.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jbelfior]

What now for WILKO??

Perhaps you can apply the \"explosive pattern horse\" theory here.

WILKO paired his Thoro top in the SA Derby in his second start....a good sign. Then he regressed slightly in the Derby (tough trip...gets sawed off in the lane by a bearing out FLOWER ALLEY) to a 5.

Sometimes you get a 3yo that equals or exceeds his 2yo top, follows that up with a slight regression, then follows that with an explosive race (2-4 point improvement over his top)

Perhaps the PREAKNESS will be WILKO\'s explosive race. At 15-1, not a bad use in the exotics.



Good Luck,
Joe B.