Derby Selection Thread

[Holybull]

Let\'s reserve this thread for actual Derby picks.  There are plenty of other threads to discuss the contenders.  No flames please.  This will give everyone a chance to have their picks in writing BEFORE the race.  

Anway, here\'s mine:

Afleet Alex to win. Large.

Tri AA w/ SK/HF w/ all

Tri SK/HF w/ AA w/ all

Anyone else?

[richiebee]

HIGH FLY, hopefully at double digit odds, emerges with the lead on the turn and holds off AA, Noble Causeway and Wilko.

1 MILLION GUARANTEED DERBY PICK 4: A bucket of Bailey: ALL in the 7th, MADCAP in the 8th, SENOR SWINGER in the 9th, and HF.

KY OAKS: MEMORETTE shakes up the chalk players with her first score against open company.

[flushedstraight]

Richie, best of luck

Tri;

HF
BR(x2),AA,GG,HL
BR,AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W

BR(x4),AA,GG,HL
HF
BR,AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W

BR(x4),AA,GG,HL
BR,AA,GG,HL
HF


Super;

BR
HF
AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W
AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W

BR
AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W
HF
AA,GG,HL,SK,NC,W


Ex;

HF
BR(x5),AA(x3),GG,HL,SK,NC,W

BR(x10),AA(x3),GG,HL,SK,NC,W
HF


Win;
HF(x40) at > 10-1
HL(x10) at > 20-1
GG(x5)  at > 20-1

[P-Dub]

My opinion is similar to Holybull\'s.  I favor the horses with the solid 2yo foundation over the more lightly raced, slightly faster jump up horses.

1)Afleet Alex: Fast and solid 2yo form

2)Sun King: 1 turn mile pretty good, another with solid 2 yo form. Tampa number bugs me but he\'ll be a price.

3)Bellamy Road: Can\'t pick the favorite on top, but good 2 yo form and obviously fast.

AA to win

Ex Box: AA/SK,HF

Tri: AA/SK,HF,Wilco/All
....BR/AA,HF,Wilco/AA,SK,Wilko  (saver)
....SK/AA,HF,Wilko,BR/AA,HF,Wilko,BR

SPR: AA/SK,HF,BR/SK,HF,BR,W/SK,HF,BR,W

[mikemd]

i\'ll take the bong brothers in a self-created entry:

high limit
high fly

i imagine i\'ll be 6-8 deep on various pick fours, but the biggest tickets will feature the above two.

[xichibanx]

My picks:

1. Greeley\'s Galaxy
2. Giacomo
3. Don\'t Get Mad
4. Sort It Out

xichibanx

[Bally Ache]

I like

Afleet Alex - looks like the best horse in the race to me.

Don\'t Get Mad - some say he\'s a one-turn horse.  Could be but outside of the SA Derby he really hasn\'t done anything wrong.  Nobody was going to beat Consolidator the day of the San Felipe.  Also, you\'ve got horses for courses working here, never a bad thing.

Greeley\'s Galaxy - short on experience and may not be good enough but there could also be upside potential here.  Also, not much is being made of the fact that he\'s supplemental.  Never been one before.  You don\'t toss $200,000 in the pot unless you think the horse can cover it.

High Limit - somewhat.  need a fourth horse and he\'s probably it.  As someone else said, that La. Derby was pretty good coming off a six month layoff.   Yes, he beat nothing but that could be said of any or all of them.  Too many prep races, not enough talented horses to go around.


I don\'t like (and their all getting bet which is what I like best about the race)

Sun King - okay, Zito\'s got a handful of horses and he liked this one best. But what if he\'s wrong.  I can\'t see anything else to recommend him.  Seems to be this years wiseguy horse.  They never win,seldom run well.

Wilko - people seem to think his feet are okay,citing his works as evidence.  Believe me, nobody pays more attention to works than I do and I think his works, particularly for a Cal. horse, are ordinary.

Bandini - nice horse but not IMO up to this.

High Fly - oh my, if this horse wins I\'ll have to eat crow forever.  I don\'t think he\'s good enough and I sure don\'t think he\'s going to like that last furlong.  I think a lot of his support is really for Bailey.   Welll, as Pat Day said, you can\'t make the horse run any faster than he can run.

  I suppose you could make some kind of case for every horse but Spanish Chestnut.  If he wins it\'s time to go to the bridge.

That leaves Bellamy Road.  I don\'t know what to do with him but, since I think he\'ll be overbet, I\'ll probably toss him.

[Michael D.]

noble causeway is the top pick. i took him at 17-1 in pool 2 because i though zito was bringing him along in a perfect way. i like the pattern, i like the breeding to get 10f, i like the post, and i like the jock.

HF - i took him at 32-1 right after his disastrous trip in the HollyBull stks. bred to get 10f, and should get a nice trip with bailey. a touch slow, so a few of the faster ones would have to not fire, but that could happen.

BR - could be a very good one, value the problem. can\'t key at 3-1 off the race over that aqu strip.

bandini - probably going backwards. the pletcher/jr team is the best though, and i am using just because of that.

AA - a great horse. before the ark derby i  did not think he would be a great 10f though. now i am not so sure. confused - a use underneath at low odds.

SK - i loved him in the blue grass, and he got in trouble early and didn\'t fire late. i still like this horse, not sure about the distance though. a use underneath.

wilko - i was originally very negative on him, but the SA derby wasn\'t that bad. still, just a use underneath for me at best.

AH - picks up small pieces?
..............

NC on top. small saver with BR in case he explodes again. BR and HF the best underneath. bandini next, followed by AA, SK, wilk, and AH

good luck everybody!!



Post Edited (05-06-05 21:28)

[Mall]

Assuming nothing happens to the track overnight, the horses with the best late kick should have the edge. I\'m live with & will be keying on AA, HL & SK. With the exception of AA, the double prices have me thinking that it might not make sense to divert too much more into one race on what looks like a very good betting card. Surprised to see that the double with Wilko is actually lower than with HL & SK. I thought HL would be this yr\'s wiseguy horse, but unless all that action came from Euros & left coasters, perhaps it\'s Wilko.
Best of luck.

[NoCarolinaTony]

I\'ve gone back and forth many times on this but here goes:

Bandini is my Key Horse along with Greely\'s Galaxy. ( I can\'t let the 25-1 odds go and his last was good). Since we are breaking all the \"RULES\" this year with days, number of preps etc.

I\'m playing Bandini Win with a $10 Saver on Greely\'s.

In exacta\'s Im playing Bandini with Greely\'s, Bandini with Wilko, Bandini with Sun King, Bandini with Noble Causeway. And if im winning I\'ll gover the same with Greely\'s Galaxy. (depending on what its\'s paying and if I\'m winning I might cover a Bellamy/Bandini exacta).

Not sure about tri\'s  but in Super\'s Im going with a $1 3x4x4x6 for $54 looking for

bandini,greely\'s,wilko
Bandini,greely\'s,wilko,noble
Bandini,greely\'s,wilko,noble
Bandini,greely\'s,wilko,noble,sunking,andromeda\'s hero.

Im afraid of Coin silver and Buzard\'s Bay sneaking in the 4th slot.

If It rains, Coin Silver moves up a lot.

I think the real value will be in the all Stakes Pick 4. I\'ve been working on it and will post later.

NC Tony

[jbelfior]

Mall--

What\'s the double with HL???


Thanks and good luck,
Joe B

[Mall]

$253 with HL vs $201 for Wilko, per jimbo 66\'s post below.

[albany]

My selections are as follows:


Wilko -- As I have noted on this Board, I feel that Wilko will handle the distance and is ready for a breakout race.  

Bandini -- This horse has, in my opinion, been unjustly criticized for his slow finishing time in the Blue Grass (13 2/5). As Pletcher and others have observed, however, there were few middle distance races at Kee. with fast closing times this season. Bandini was able to finish his two Fla. races well (12 3/5 and 12 4/5). Likewise, other starters in the Blue Grass finished well in their previous starts. High Limit finished the La. Derby in good order (30 4/5) and Closing Argument closed in a respectable time in his previous start (13 1/5). Hence, I must discount the criticism of Bandini on this count. Bandini is an improving colt who has a solid foundation (i.e., three 1 1/8 races this Spring). He also has the right breeding, connections and running style.

Bellamy Road -- Until recently, I was going to eliminate Bellamy Road  for a number of the reasons which have already been discussed on this Board. The chief problem with this horse is, of course, the fact that he has not proven that he can rate. While we can all throw out a lot of verbiage in discussing this issue, one picture is worth a thousand words. Just looking at this physical specimen on the track requires his inclusion in my selections.

Don\'t Get Mad -- This colt has a real shot at hitting the board at a square price. He loves the track (3 for 3 lifetime) and he has a closing style that may be quite helpful if there is a pace collapse scenario. The fact that he is on short rest is of no moment. His \"effort\" in the SA Derby was not exhausting. Given that poor performance, he would have had to work very hard last week if he wanted to race in the Derby. His Derby Trial was his workout. After dismounting, jockey Stevens advised Ron Ellis that \"there was still gas in the tank.\"

While recognizing his obvious talent, I have elected to exclude Afleet Alex from my top selections (he will still be used in the exotics). Simply stated, I don\'t trust his connections in this spot.



Post Edited (05-06-05 22:28)

[brokerstip]

My Derby record lacking, I will probably forego a straight win bet and opt for the Pick 4\'s where I can cover the Derby with 5-8 choices.

For the sake of TGraph readers, I will release my win pick so everyone can toss him.

My top pick is GG.
Never run a bad one. Improved each and every time. A pair up may suffice. Kent is familiar with the CD winners circle. The owners ponied up $200G. I guess I could go for a bit less.

My sentimental pick is AA.
The lemonade stand is a heartwarming story ---just a great thing.
TR is an old Penn National guy.
A nice story and a fast horse.

Those 2 are definites on my Pick 4\'s. Will add High Fly ( I like the line) NC, BR (Yanks have lost 4 in a row, Torre 5 and Herr George....?), SK and Bandini in no particular order.

Good luck to all.

[spa]

Bellamy Road/Afleet Alex box Bandini/High Limit/Greeley\'s Galaxy/Sun King......It\'ll take a \"0\" to hit the board. The saver bet might just be the top two, straight in the exacta.