Tough race for the exotics because per usual theres a number of horses that could hit the lower spots. Be advised this analyis is not entirely upon TGraph. When its a TGraph play per my reckoning I\'ll mark it such (TG):
1. Sort it Out - Hes cycling back at the right time. The question that has to be asked is \"Was this horse well meant last\". Purportedly he wasn\'t a go for the race until the last workout. So the suspicion is that he was considered on form for the Lexington and came up short. The trainer says hes come alive and that last workout looks great, though this horse has always been a good worker. This guy is a million plus War Emblem Type purchase, without the War Emblem speed figures. So why is he here? Bob Baffert hasnt\' been as hot as the Supertrainers the last two years, but who doubts that in another 20 years hes gonna have all the records? He\'s the best there ever was and the best that there ever will be and he knows how to buy a horse and he bought this one. I don\'t know what he saw for sure, but this guy is cycling. Definite 4th place inclusion. Probable 3rd place inclusion. If Baffert gets this guy to finish higher would it be a shock? Perilous.
2. Andromena\'s Hero -The veritable Clunker. Watch the Ark again and see how everyone outpaces him on the turn for home. He just keeps on clunking and clunking and clunking. Unlikely he catches the same dream trip, but it appears he\'ll rail park early. That last eighth on a speed duel is gonna make this horse or break him. He will be running late the question is the track and how much ground he has to make up. 4th and 3rd place best probability.
3. Sun King - One race wonder horse. Dream trip finisher in the BC Juvy. What do you do? I\'m leaning toward 3rd and 4th. Small straight perfecta for 2nd. Beat Survivalist by 6. Scrappy T just handled same by 5. Though Scrappy is a game and honest horse when right. Still it was Survivalist and it sheds no laurels on him. Beat Monarch Lane by 8.5 at one turn. Greeleys beat him 9.5 at two. Advantage Greeleys. Could save ground and will have to.
4. Noble Causeway - How much ground was he really making up on High Fly last? His pedigree is nice for 10 marks, but maybe not as much a sure thing as everyone says. Don\'t know how close this one will be in the last furlong, but suspect Andromeda will be moving better.
5. Coin Silver - Well, does this guy remind you of Anyone? Very scary horse. Hot at the right time. All he beat is Sort it Out right?
6. High Limit - probably a good front end type. Bluegrass was much better than it appears. Implied earlier he would not hit the board. Am much less certain of that now. Winning will be very difficult. Will use in 3rd and 4th.
7. Flower Alley - game Distorted Humor, Blinkers will help. Can\'t see him winning, but will never give up. Suspect the 10 marks is a little too much.
8. Greater Good - Left his race in the Paddock last. Has not worked very impressively at Churchill, but has run well enough there before to excuse that. Last two races are an enigma. This guy has to tuck in and rate. Rebel he lead early, Ark he rushed up and further compromised himself. Somethings gotten into his head at the wrong time. Big crowd, big unknowns. Low figures. Light pedigree.
9. Greeley\'s Galaxy (TG)- One of the Four Horses of the Apocalypse. And probably the best price of the four. What is not to like about that last race? Other than you have to suspect Stute is not juicing him. Probably has speed to stay out of the big trouble. Works at Churchill are ambiguous. Hes apparently shut down quickly after them and that can be interpreted negatively. However note the first work at Churchill. Anyone suspect the workout comparisons are folly with this horse? His connections didn\'t think enough of him to nominate him it appears. Kent knows the horse and track. Omit at your peril. He\'ll be as high as 2nd on all my tickets.
10. Giacomo - Is working better than he ever has.
11. High Fly - Excuse and excused in his first 2 turn race. Met Bandini and was fortunate to win. Florida Derby ran even better and Bailey throttled him down late. Like his pedigree, suspect its not ideal however for 10 marks. Will get first run at them.
12. Afleet Alex (TG) - The 2nd of the Four Horses of the Apocalypse. Barring trouble perfect pace entry. Jock has found trouble for him. Any semblance of a quality ride and this one jumps up even further. Danger is bounce and jock moves too soon and takes him wide doing it. Have to figure they\'ve sat him down with race films.
13. Spanish Chestnut - Ran into the Keeneland rail bias and caved late. Suspect he\'ll be tougher to pass this time, but pass them they probably will about the 7 furlong mark.
14. Wilko (TG) - the wise guy horse. Do think he\'s sitting on a good one. Has shown good late energy in his better races. Good foundation. Should have won last and wasn\'t 100% per reports. Would not be a complete surprise. Will not be on top for me.
15. Killer Bandini (TG) - Best horse Pletcher has brought to Derby. Last two races were outstanding. Who in their right mind doesnt consider this one a serious threat. Upgraded.
16. Bellamania (TG) - Still think its freak or frustration for this guy.
17. Don\'t get Mad - is it lasix and location that has set him back or is it better company and two turns? Leaning against him.
18. Closing Argument - Don\'t like the post, don\'t like the last race, don\'t like the distance.
19. Going Wild - Its Lukas and he\'s cycling, but this is not how Lukas brings Derby winners to the race. Pace factor only in my estimation.
20. Buzzards Bay - Risk to omit Mullins. A bit slow going in, but the post hurt him.
Likely winners:
Afleet Alex
Bellamania
Bandini
Greeley\'s Galaxy
Wilko
The Apocalypse horses! Imagine that.
