CH/CtC - Over-estimation of the Pace Impact

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The big field and extra distance are what make the Derby the Derby.

If its a 9 mark race, Closing Argument or Afleet Alex probably win it.

If you limit it to 14 I\'m not even sure
Giacomo gets it.

But the point is that it should be hard to pick and picking it does result in a nice reward.

Accidents can happen with a four horse field and if a horse went down in the Derby it could be a big problem, but so too with 14 horses. Outside post may or may not hurt depending on the horses style. Thats part of the ballet of the race.

[beyerguy]

At one point here, Giacomo seemed to be the darling of the TG board for the TC.  He had legit reasons for not improving his last couple.  I think 19th fast of 20 is going by tops, not what could be expected on Saturday.

As for the closers, I meant deep type closers, we can agree to disagree.

OK, I didn\'t realize every word would be taken literally.  Many would argue Giacomo is the best of those three.

Don\'t hate those who hit the Derby as if it was some random shot in the dark.  Plenty of sharp handicappers hit big prices every single day.  I wouldn\'t book all their bets after that.  Get over it, I\'m back playing Delaware and Hawthorne today, the money spends the same no matter what the name of the race is.

[miff]

Class said

\"I made the pace of the SA Derby a little slow. If correct, that complimented both Giacomo\'s and Don\'t Get Mad\'s performances in that race. I made that point before the Derby Trial\"

Class,

The track was kinda dull SA derby day(for California)and Giacomo HUNG like a chandelier the last eighth. His race in the Sham was his best effort IMO and I bet him back in the San Felipe.

Figs wise, notwithstanding the hot pace,this derby defies any logical explanation to any student of the game and the drug stuff is over the top because too many runners did not perform AT ALL.Feed back from connections of Zito and Pletcher have those trainers\"dizzy\"

Two more tidbits, Johnny V \"protected\" Bandini just about all the way(toss the performance) and he did NOT like the inside part of the track all day.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff

the inside was not good

Alex was down in there a bit too much. Can\'t blame him though...he took a lot of heat for wide rides......if he rides Alex wide that race, likely you have a different result.



Post Edited (05-09-05 17:11)

[jimbo66]

Class,

You keep posting the same thing, about different races.  

This race had a fast pace so....

This race had a slow pace so....


Change your name to pace handicapper and stop trying to fit everything into your pace analysis, especially on the Thorograph board.

Pace didn\'t make Summerly\'s race in the Oaks.

Pace didn\'t make the SA Derby a \"better\" race for Giacomo.  I bet Giacomo and he had NOTHING in the stretch that day.   Consolidator didn\'t lope along on any easy lead that day, he was pushed hard and was in a drive on the turn.  He was just better.

[beyerguy]

jimbo66 wrote:

> Pace didn\'t make the SA Derby a \"better\" race for Giacomo.  I
> bet Giacomo and he had NOTHING in the stretch that day.  
> Consolidator didn\'t lope along on any easy lead that day, he
> was pushed hard and was in a drive on the turn.  He was just
> better.

Consolidator wasn\'t even a participant

[jimbo66]

I am off a race! Thanks Beyerguy.

I was referring to the San Felipe, when Giacomo had nothing in the stretch.

I gave up on him in the SA Derby, betting Wilko and watchiing Dettori give the horse a night tour of the outside paths....  Boxed Wilko with Buzzard\'s Bay and General John B.......  I wouldn\'t have cared about the derby if Wilko got 2nd that day.

[jimbo66]

BeyerGuy,

Last point on the \"true closers\" of the race.

How many total combined horses did Giacomo pass in the stretch of his three California races this year?

The answer is zero.

I would expect a logical closer to pass somebody, anybody.

[Bally Ache]

I\'ll never be able to prove this but I think, if Consolidator stayed sound, he\'d have won and he\'d have been at least 15-1.

While many of you were analyzing Bellamy\'s Wood ad infinitum, ad nauseam I pointed out that Consolidator\'s San Felipe was the superior race.

[gowand]

I was not surprised that afleet alex ran in the money...I just thought it would more likely be 1 or 2.  I was not surprised that CA ran in the money but I did not think he would be in a serious race for the win.  CA was respectable as a two year old with a goog foundation and a 4 top. He looked to me like a horse that would move forward and he did.  Giacomo, no matter how many times I look at him, simply doesn\'t figure.  I didn\'t like him visually and he looked slow on paper with no excuses.  I just don\'t know how you come up with him.  It made me feel better when I found out the guy who hit the super did it on a \"quick pick\".

[NoCarolinaTony]

Jimbo,

There was lot to consider: You had all the wise guy trainers using only 2 race preps for instance, you also had guys running off of 4 or 5 race foundation races in total. You had some horses running off of 5 weeks rest, and you had a bunch of people assuming that CA racing was slow(er).

I think it was safe to assume that many of us thought the pace was going to be fast early (Spanish Chestnut, Wild Lukas etc). No one thought that \"ALL\" of the Jump up Horses would collapse (Not sure that AA collapsed). Now add in the Drug Detention Scenario and you\'ve got one big confusing mess.

I guess the question I ask is did the light preparation have more of impact come Derby than we think on the Key Horses? Not to mention we now know better which horses can handle an extra furlong.

NC Tony

[holybull95]

Here\'s my 2 cents.....after the PP draw I thought BR would be 3 or 4 wide at the turn (depending if GW was sent) or maybe eating dirt for the first time behing SC and HL.  My key for the race is whether BR would go on or not.  Even though he looked like a freak in the Wood, I chose not because of the 2 prep angle (along with HL).  As I wrote in an earlier post (NO DERBY EXACTA), I thought Giacomo had the best chance to improve with Wilko and CA less so.  So I keyed Giacomo underneath with only AA and Bandini on top.  Made a little only with a win saver with Giacomo.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'m still hashing through the probability that both Closing Argument and Giacomo fired large tops on the same day with conduct altering Drug Testing in place. That would seem somewhat unlikely. Especially in consideration of the fact their figures would be all time fast \"non drug\" figures. My premise assumes that it was in 2001 that substances began significantly jumping horses up. In other words I am comparing their figures to Derby winning figures from 2000 and beyond. FuPig ran a 2 for instance.

This race is even harder to figure than the Wood or Bluegrass.

[holybull95]

I think it was reasonable to predict that one of the following three, CA, Wilko and Giacomo would run a new top that would be good enough to be ITM especially if the \"super\" trainers lost their syringes. Less so with Wilko and CA because of only two preps.  Have we seen enough evidence the McLaughlin is one of \"them\"?  Certainly not Shirreffs nor to a less extent Dollase.

[jimbo66]

Holybull,

Congrats on liking Giacomo.  

But your line about him being one of the most likely to run a new top is funny at best.  Yes, he was likely to run a new top, because he was the 19th fastest out of 20 horses and the only horse in the field to still have NOT ran faster as a 3 year old, than he did as a 2 year old.

So, yes, he could run faster and was even \"likely\" to do so.  I wouldn\'t have called him the favorite to come in last, Spanish Chestnut and Going Wild were those.  But Giacomo, because he was so so slow, was a very very unlikely winner.

Maybe you think it is sour grapes on my part, but this horse was not \"handicappable\" to win the DErby by any normal method.

I was with 6 guys at the Meadowlands and two had the horse and cashed - no joke.  But neither would tell you that they handicapped the race.

One italian guy \"wheeled the two italian horses for $1\".  Bandini and Giacomo.

The other guy had $10 on Giacomo because his name was \"John\" and he was told Giacomo was italian for John.