Wilko

[big18741]

I didn\'t like his chances at Churchill,but I also didn\'t like the horses that ran 1-2 either.

If you bet him I think he\'s worth chasing one more time in Baltimore.He ran okay,but Dollase claims he bled some which if true is a legit excuse.I\'m kind of luke warm on him,but if he\'s gonna jump up this might be the spot.Foot problems and weather all spring compromise his training,rough post at Churchill(he doesn\'t have the speed to get over and save ground)and a little bleeding and he didn\'t run horribly.I\'d chase him one more time,and then be done with him.The price should be good-an inside post wouldn\'t hurt.

I\'m probably sucked in on Scrappy T.He was visually impressive stalking what was probably a real pig and moving on the turn in the Withers.I just liked the way he moved on the track that day,and sense a horse with some upside whose best we haven\'t seen yet.Maybe it was a mirage,but I also liked the way he looked getting over the ground in the Wood chasing Superfreak until the saddle slipped.He might be slower on paper,but I think he\'s got some more lengths in him for a trainer who is looking to peak in the Preakness.

[miff]

Watched SCRAPPY all winter, he\'s gutsy but I think he is a better horse when the track is wet.

[beyerguy]

I give Scrappy T less than a 1% chance of winning the Preakness...I mean, the others could all fall, but that\'s about it.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

big18741 wrote:

> I didn\'t like his chances at Churchill,but I also didn\'t like
> the horses that ran 1-2 either.
>
> If you bet him I think he\'s worth chasing one more time in
> Baltimore.He ran okay,but Dollase claims he bled some which if
> true is a legit excuse.I\'m kind of luke warm on him,but if he\'s
> gonna jump up this might be the spot.Foot problems and weather
> all spring compromise his training,rough post at Churchill(he
> doesn\'t have the speed to get over and save ground)and a little
> bleeding and he didn\'t run horribly.I\'d chase him one more
> time,and then be done with him.The price should be good-an
> inside post wouldn\'t hurt.

Agreed, if he bled thats a legit excuse

>
> I\'m probably sucked in on Scrappy T.He was visually impressive
> stalking what was probably a real pig and moving on the turn in
> the Withers.I just liked the way he moved on the track that
> day,and sense a horse with some upside whose best we haven\'t
> seen yet.Maybe it was a mirage,but I also liked the way he
> looked getting over the ground in the Wood chasing Superfreak
> until the saddle slipped.He might be slower on paper,but I
> think he\'s got some more lengths in him for a trainer who is
> looking to peak in the Preakness.
>

Scrappy is a game little horse. He was right on Bellamania til his saddle slipped. I\'m not convinced he was classic distance but hes a gamer.

[JimP]

beyerguy wrote: \"I give Scrappy T less than a 1% chance of winning the Preakness...I mean, the others could all fall, but that\'s about it.\"

Are you suggesting that you might want to book this bet at those odds?

[beyerguy]

If I were a legal bookmaker, I\'d give 99-1, sure, if the field holds at what it is now.

I form strong opinions.  Of course I\'m wrong sometimes, but that is how I play the game.  You have to have a set of steel ones to survive.  Wavering opinions lead to poor bets.



Post Edited (05-10-05 14:06)

[big18741]

You wouldn\'t last very long as a legal bookmaker giving 5 or more times track odds on every horse you had a negative opinion on.

Maybe Scrappy T is a pig,but putting up prices like that you\'d get picked apart.

[sekrah]

I disagree big..

I sold about $1500 worth of bets on Bellamy Road at 8-1 to a dozen different folks at my OTW, and another $400 on Bandini at 15-1. (Shhhh... Keep this between you and me).

If you are better than the public at setting percentages of a horses chances, (Which isn\'t hard), and if you had the bankroll to handle the swings, then you could make a living off it.

If I think Bellamy Road has less than 10% chance of winning the Derby, I\'ll make a fortune with that edge all-day.


I make a good chunk of money on the side of my day job, by selling people losing tickets.  It\'s a whole let easier selling losers than it is winners in this game.  I have to payout every now and then, but not as often as I collect.

Spot the crumb-bum, sure to \"X-Out\" favorites, and sell them to the suckers.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Hey Beyer Guy,

If last weekend\'s races didn\'t tell you a thing by now nothing will. Any one can win, it all depends on circumstances of the day.

NC Tony

[big18741]

Sekrah

You can probably do a lot of business with Afleet Alex in 2 weeks.