Bellamy Road Out

Splint - out until summer.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

That may be some evidence that the Wood was a genuine Negative 5

MO said he felt the horse was done.

[HP]

What\'s the matter Class?  Cat got your tongue?  How are your pace figures useful without wind?  It\'s a direct question.  I wish you\'d answer it before you post any more nonsense here.

Maybe the wind affected Bandini\'s final time and you and the others who ignore wind missed it?  

Not part of your BG analysis eh?  

HP

HP,

>How are your pace figures useful without wind? <

There is no doubt that wind is a bigger complication for pace figures than for final time figures.

However, when there are multiple races at the same distance on a card or you supplement the fractional times with visual observations of the race development and knowledge of the running styles of the horses, it is possible to get a very good line on the pace of a race.

Unlike final time figures however, it isn\'t necessary to have pace figures accurate to a 1/5 of a second or so for them to be very useful. That\'s because only paces beyond a certain point (fast or slow) have a measureable impact on the final time of various horses in a race (not all equally). It\'s more often than some think, but certainly not every race.

The idea is not to get the perfect pace figure (although that would be nice and we all try) or create the perfect formula for measuring the impact of the pace on individual horses (that would be nice too). The idea is to get an accurate enough measurement of both to interpret results in a much more accurate way than is possible with final times alone. That process leads to making better speed figures because you can tell the difference between changes in track speed/form that account for quirky final times/results and when the pace was the real culprit.



Post Edited (05-10-05 13:21)

[jbelfior]

How about that it may be a convenient excuse that \"He\'s out\".......of gas.

Two and out last year as a 2yo and two and out again this year. It\'s Jim Dandy followed by the Travers if ol\' Saint Nick is smart.


Good Luck,
joe b.

[beyerguy]

Just out of curiousity, what in the world does Bellamy Road being out have to do with wind and pace figures?  Seems a strange place to mount an attack.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

That Wood may have started the unraveling for Bellamania. That popped splint could also be the lack of foundation the stats for Derby winners support. It could also be overextending trying to catch horses he couldn\'t outfoot for the first time in his life.

Even suspecting all that and more and betting him out of the money is little consolation when your desk and floor are littered with cyber confetti losing tickets.

The Supertrainers ducking?

[HP]

Beyer,

Class started another thread and I followed him.  It\'s not an \"attack.\"  He just leaves stuff out.  I felt like asking again.  Since you\'ve interjected yourself before, another way to put it is that it\'s really none of your business.  I hate self-appointed board police.  

Class,

Everything you say is true but besides the point, as usual.

\"However, when there are multiple races at the same distance on a card or you supplement the fractional times with visual observations of the race development and knowledge of the running styles of the horses, it is possible to get a very good line on the pace of a race.\"

What if Bandini runs at Keeneland into a 30MPH wind and HORSE X runs the same exact time at Aqueduct without any wind?  Assume for the sake of our example that all other variables are exactly the same (fractions, track variant, all this \"running styles\" mumbo jumbo) EXCEPT for the wind.  

Won\'t the figures for the two horses come out about the same?  Are they good figures?  Useful in any way?  Shouldn\'t Bandini get a much better figure given the wind?  Is Bandini\'s figure an accurate representation of his performance?  

How can you generate accurate pace figures without wind?  Wind can have a lot more impact than 1/5 second.  Horses can run identical times on the clock and turn in wildly different performances.  

How about this...Jerry\'s final figures with wind are better than anyone\'s pace figures without it.  

There are about a hundred other things wrong with pace figure methodology (I had a LOOOONNNGGGG talk with a Colt\'s Neck guy at a Belmont handicapping Expo once upon a time), but really, you seem like a somewhat intelligent guy and I can\'t see you believing that the no-wind pace figs are more accurate than TG\'s final figs.

It\'s easy to leave stuff out.  But if you leave out wind, then it\'s garbage in, garbage out.  Enough with your Blue Grass theories, address .45 half no wind vs. .45 half 30MPH wind and how your pace figures (or anyone else\'s) have any value whatsoever if they don\'t take this into account.  

HP

[beyerguy]

Board police?  I thought I was missing something, that\'s all.  You are a cranky guy HP.

[miff]

CH,

As the pace guy on this board,sn\'t \"Bike Mike\" the pace figs guru these days, I fool with some other data.

[HP]

I\'m not cranky.  I remember a prior thread where you had to stick your two cents in.  Stick with your bookmaking plans...I want to hear how good the pace figures are leaving out the 30MPH wind...

I would think a guy like Class would have given a lot of thought to the methodology behind his (or other) pace figures.  

HP

[beyerguy]

I didn\'t realize your threads were private, my bad.  But since I\'ve stuck my nose in already, why would you think pace figure variants don\'t take the wind into account?  Of course they do.

[Saddlecloth]

quit while your ahead, explaining this will take to much effort

beyerguy wrote:

> I didn\'t realize your threads were private, my bad.  But since
> I\'ve stuck my nose in already, why would you think pace figure
> variants don\'t take the wind into account?  Of course they do.

[HP]

Bguy,

Class posted his thoughts on this above, and he didn\'t say anything about \"pace figure variants taking wind into account.\"  

He did say,

\"There is no doubt that wind is a bigger complication for pace figures than for final time figures.\"

And then he explained how HE THINKS you make pace figures and what\'s involved and he basically sidestepped the wind issue.  I\'m trying to get him to address a specific question -- how can you generate accurate pace figures without wind.

I\'m really not interested in YOUR opinion.  Can\'t you let him answer for himself?  It certainly isn\'t a private thread, but so far you haven\'t really contributed anything except to call my post an \"attack,\" so for the second time, could you mind your own business?  

FWIW, you don\'t post longwinded nonsense diatribes about pace, bias or anything else that pops into your head on this board almost every day, so there\'s a compliment for you, courtesy of my sunny disposition.

Come on class, .45 first half no wind vs. .45 first half 30MPH...  Now that Beyerguy gave you some ammo (I certainly didn\'t hear anything about this \"wind in pace figure variant\" from YOU) you could probably say something.  

I guess ground loss couldn\'t affect pace figures either, right?  

HP

[Mall]

I\'m guessing you didn\'t read my post re the $8k tri you missed while working overtime, which I\'m not saying made you cranky, but I\'m pretty sure would have made me cranky. Very cranky in fact. Among other things, I asked what in the world FWIW means. I assume it\'s an acronymn & the 1st three words are something along the lines of \"Fight With Iconoclastic..\" but I can\'t for the life of me come up with the last word. Wildebeest? Wildman? Wimp? Weasel? My post also contains a suggestion re how you & class can settle this matter once & for all. Read it, think it over, get back to me, & and while you\'re at it, let me know if you see any singles in tomorrow\'s pk6 at CD, tell us who the hell Bike Mike is, & explain to me why the two guys from Jersey who hit the super sat in a car together outside the Meadowlands for an hr to do their handicapping. I mean, really, handicapping in the car is very uncomfortable. There\'s no room, the papers don\'t stay organized & it can be hard to find your pen if you drop it. Why not go inside & sit down?  And what about the food vendor from Chinatown who hit the derby tri by clearing his mind of all greed & doing some Buddha chant? And then there was Mike Smith on Letterman last night claiming, when he did the top ten list, that the reason he won was that he shaved Giacomo to eliminate wind resistance. Dovetails with your position quite nicely, if I\'m not mistaken, but why weren\'t the bettors informed of this in advance of the race? I\'m pretty sure I would have had him on top if I only knew.