Patterns going into the Preakness

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

HP, I honestly dont see the issue.

Alex obviously bounced. Theres issues as to how much and precisely why he didn\'t win but the bounce is clear.

The foundation was

sprint
sick race
Big Top

That along with poor stretch patch explains why he didnt\' win to me.

Let these guys question the training. To me its a red herring at best and at worst they\'re polarized on its effect.

CTC,

He didn\'t mention anything about anyone else related to how they came out of the race.

I have no strong view on whether AA\'s training etc.. will make him go backwards or not. However, I\'ve always felt this horse would prefer 9F to 10F and I discounted his chances slightly in the Derby because of that.

Anyone think the reason he flattened out a bit was because that last furlong was just a tad more than he can run and deliver a peak performance?

If so, excluding the other issues (just for the moment), maybe he can run another negative number at 1 3/16s if he\'s still sharp.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Its debatable what Alex beat in the Ark, but whats not debatable is that until he was motored down at the wire (pre wire actually) he was increasing the lead on every horse in the field. It was a Bellamania type race from Wide and off the Pace. He did come home in an 11 and change, regardless of the downhill debate.

Alex got the distance and the furlong didn\'t beat him. The bounce did. Its not like Giacomo and Closing Argument out pedigreed him, but they did outform him. I\'m sure the connections of Wild Desert are kicking themselves for not trying to make the field.

Personally I\'m of the opinion that Alex is the star of the crop. Held that opinion since the B.C. Juvenile (though considered a Derby bomb) and nothing in the Derby shakes that notion. Still that could be wrong and have lost a good deal on those two races. Just wish the entire Fab Four had been right for the Derby is all.

The Preakness is another matter and Alex as favorite looks vulnerable, but not on distance limitation or training regime.

[miff]

RE the Davidowitz comments about AA post derby. You have to know that AA has always looked a bit ragged and that is what drew so much fire from horsemem/clockers regarding Richey\'s extensive two a days etc.

I personally thought AA ran gutsy but the extra eight dulled his often big time brush.

[HP]

Chuckles,

So you think he bounced in the Derby, and the two-a-days were not a contributing factor?  He put forth a tremendous effort in the Arkansas Derby (that\'s your opinion, right?) and his trainer ran him around Churchill Downs twice as much as everyone else and that had nothing to do with the way he ran.  The training didn\'t wear down the horse off a big effort even more...he just bounced because...he bounced.    

I wonder if Ritchey will keep it up?  

HP

[HP]

Going by this subject title, I\'m bummed out that Buzzards Bay isn\'t going to Pimlico as per the DRF today.  He looks good off that pair...

HP

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Haven\'t been following the Preakness works, its time to catch up. Alex is telling the trainer what he wants to do. Ritchey didn\'t work him twice everyday even pre derby. Did anyone notice Ritchey\'s record and the R.O.I. on his horses?

Trainers are this level with a good horse are all pretty competent, its hard to second guess them unless theres something manifest in the decision.

Kansas City Boy loved Gulfstream, the track was playing to inside speed all meet and McPeek took him from a one hole race there and ran him from outside in the Louisiana Derby. That kind of thing. McPeek is a good trainer, that was just a very odd decision and thats not even factoring the Shipping. They probably wanted a rating off pace effort to keep him on the Derby trail. That could have been attempted at Gulfstream though if that was the gambit.

[HP]

Chuckles,

Nobody said he WORKED the horse twice a day!  I\'m glad you are confident in your opinion, although like many others reading your posts I have no idea what it\'s based on.

HP

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

youre focusing on the word \"work\". If he drilled the horse twice a day that would be another issue.

hes getting the horse out for ground work twice a day. Factor that negatively at your peril.

The interesting thing is that you ask me for anecdotal evidence that two a days are beneficial and your premise implies that they are not, yet what anecdotal evidence do you present to support that theory? The horse ran the most impressive Derby prep of all and it may have taken something out of him, but the bounce is just as likely upon 3YO foundation as anything else and that is what I have attributed the bounce to. That is my opinion.

On the other hand a horse like Sweet Cat jogs with gauze on her foot and that is acceptable to those that scrutinize training. Not to imply that it was acceptable to you HP, thats not known. Certain things are more relevant than others is what the point is.

One last point. Most of my handicapping is based on very careful horse review, figure review and in depth scrutiny. If upon that basis the horse is a play to me, I could generally care less what the probabiities are, both on the board and the bounce statistics. (Perhaps bounce will be factored more carefully in the future however)It backfired in the Derby and has to be candidly admitted. But who here singled either Giacomo or Closing Argument with conviction? Granting Bandini has big in my wagers as well.



Post Edited (05-13-05 13:48)

[HP]

At my peril?  He was DEAD in the stretch, Chuckles.  They closed in .54 (I know you\'re a clock watcher).  

I\'m not asking YOU for any \"anecdotal evidence.\"  I saw the race, and with my incredible powers of race observation, including the hand motions of the jockeys, the separation of the pack, and the striding motion of each hoof, I noticed he was DEAD as a doornail, and it wasn\'t just in the last eighth either.  He certainly won\'t be any less PANCAKE-d in less than two weeks.  

HP

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I thought this post by Big was one of the better post race reviews on the board:

http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?f=1&i=19186&t=19186#reply_19186

It does show Alex a little closer to the pace and his finish was not as powerful. The pace could have been a factor, but the track was very fast to six marks. Bounce and path were likely factors as well and despite looking dull Alex ran straight as a string in the stretch near the rail.

Alex looks to be the Preakness favorite and so he could be worth taking a shot at. If he doesn\'t show well in the Preakness, the cumulative efforts and perhaps the distance are going to be prime suspects. It would be very hard to say training stopped him.

He bounced. Will he shake it off?

[HP]

The training stopped him.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

You must be speaking of the Yankees.

[richiebee]

In Ed Fountaine\'s report of the Derby in the New York Post on May 8, he wrote that AA was rumored to be sore before the race. I consider Fountaine a responsible reporter. Anyone else hear this or read it somewhere else?

Is High Limit still a Preakness probable? (been out of the loop). If so, could I please have the phone number for the MD ASPCA?

Expect to read soon that Bellamy will be sent to stud. Messrs Brown (negative 5) and
Beyer (120)have made him the fastest 3YO in history, and as such he is too valuable to race through for what other horses would be a typical setback.