GENUINE RISK

[marcus]

I\'m looking at the genuine risk hcp for the purpose of a handicapping contest and I\'m going over my thorograph data and studying pp\'s about to make certain assumptions ( of which i might be right or wrong ) regarding lets say micro + macro pace senario\'s for individual horse\'s and for the race overall - and with all this pace stuff that\'s been up recently ( and i do feel that that stuff does has it\'s value ), i\'m curious and was wondering what would be the \"pace figure guy\'s\" morning line for the race  ?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

6 furlong pace analysis?

Its gonna be fast...lol

Hard to say who will lead but watching the track might not be a bad idea.

One day Smokey Glacken is gonna break with her feet under her and shes gonna shock a lot of folks when she does.

They are predicting rain for NY around noon and then again late afternoon. I wouldn\'t count on a  fast track yet. That\'s going to complicate matters further (and it isn\'t an easy race as it is).

[marcus]

 thanks class + ctc , i understand what\'s being said - still too many unkowns about the race - usually when i get into trouble for wagering to early in the day it\'s due to having incorrectly projected how the race get\'s bet etc - guessing where the money going to go ...   i know in many situations the real value play isn\'t revieled untill the late stages of wagering inside  the 9 min to post time window -  even though SG\'s #\'s look a little slow on paper for today she isn\'t to be ignored too quickly for what i see as and might consider to be potentially a late developing type pattern . my atheritis is telling me that there is more humidity in the air today than has been recently so maybe the track comes up a little flat ...

[mikemd]

since my lock in the lone star race scratched :-|, i\'ll look to bank audit in this race.  an old friend has a horse in the race and i want to give him a shot by picking against him.

I thought the Pletcher horse that comes out of a fast paced race would be shorter than
7-1 here.

Tough race with a lot of speed/presser types. Two tough horses off a layoff too.

[Michael D.]

i picked out friendly michelle. looks like baffert has her wound up for her first start. she ran well here last year, and i can see a move fwd from that. more value elsewhere though. sensible chic should sit right off a fast pace and have something left for the drive. she ran a nice negative \".5\" last time at 6f, and i\'m looking for a repeat of that. bank audit looks a touch slow, but should benefit from the pace, and might get a piece. box FM, SC, and BA (with SC looking like the value here at 11-1)

[Michael D.]

bingo!!!!      nice call mikemd

...... $146 exacta.



Post Edited (05-14-05 16:50)

Wow, that was a savage pace.

[marcus]

Nice call on that BA & great price too - the play for me was if FM pairs she takes it - awe those\' could be\'s an \' woulda beens... FM last # may have been enough to cause a bounce and those astonishing , sensational and eye popping fracs ( which i didn\'t see coming ) probably helped ...