Lou Raffetto, Spot Tester

IMHO...

1. Bandini ran so terribly neither drugs or  pace could account for his performance. He may have left his race on the track given how washed out he was and he may have gotten hurt during the running of the race (or both), but drugs is not the answer.

2. Coined Silver ran about as well as expected given that he beat a field on non-entities on a sloppy track sitting off a fast pace in his prep (a race in which I bet him partly for those very reasons) and had not showed all that much before that.

3. Flower Alley ran the best race of his life when the impact of pace/trip is taken into consideration. He finished approximately even with High Fly with a rougher trip. He was stopped dead at one point in addition to being closer to the pace early. I rated that performance a lifetime top.



Post Edited (05-17-05 10:09)

[HP]

It\'s just amazing that no matter what the subject, people just have the same axes to grind...

The point is that the powers that be in Maryland are IMMEDIATELY backing off the testing program they had in place, and this is absolutely not what was supposed to happen (as per Jerry\'s post).

Maybe the racing establishment prefers the guys like Pletcher and Frankel and they\'re not crazy about a level playing field where a horse like Giacomo wins.  For all their talk about a \"fair game for the players,\" the guys that are rumored to be associated with these questionable vet practices are well-entrenched in the industry, and they have a lot of powerful friends (and racetrack owners) in their corner.  That\'s the really ugly side of this, and it just has NOTHING to do with anyone\'s opinion of how anyone ran in the Derby.  

HP

[MO]

I can\'t recall ever working anywhere where it was OK to be drunk on the job (and on national television) except in Maryland.

[HP]

So you\'re saying drinking on the job is wrong?

[MO]

Wouldn\'t you?

[jbelfior]

Any thoughts related to Zito\'s hesitating with regards to entering HIGH FLY.

I was thinking he may have needed the effort after the 5 week gap or he did one of his regressions off of a new top (Fla Derby).

Now I\'m thinking he may be growing weary of a campaign that began in Janauary with a series of tough races.

HIGH FLY runs the entire way to achieve his numbers. Perhaps he has not recovered as well as NOBLE CAUSEWAY who did very little in the way of running.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

HP,

I am all in favor of the strictest possible drug testing.

I don\'t there\'s any evidence it mattered when it comes to the Pletcher horses in the Derby as others had suggested in the thread.

[HP]

The evidence, circumstantial as it may be, is that Pletcher trainees ran well or won every prep up to the Derby and crapped out in the big race, plus it is well established that he is a client of one of the more suspect vets.  Not only that, but quite a few of these horses ran well without a whole lot of racing or any real conventional development.  

So his horses run very well UP TO the Derby, with the vets\' full attention.  Then comes the big dance, heavy security and...hey, where\'s Todd?  Wha\'happen?

Class, what do you attribute Pletcher\'s success with developing 3yo\'s to?  You had quite a few posts here about his abilities with these horses and your profits playing them.  How is it possible his horses jump up and win these Grade I or II preps right away?  Hay, oats and water, right?  He\'s just got a knack for it?  I made a few scores too, and it was because I felt really good about the Pletcher horses moving forward, or at the very least, retaining their previous race form, when I would assume others would back up.  And up to the Derby it was a nice way to make a few bucks.

It\'s possible that drugs had nothing to do with it.  But Drape didn\'t go after Pletcher for a quote for nothing...  

It\'s interesting that so many people are willing to give Pletcher the benefit of the doubt as opposed to writing emails to Lou Raffetto, Spot Tester, about his lame plans for the Preakness.  Why not rip into Todd and ask him some tough questions about the guy in the White Car?  

HP

HP,

When I take a good look at the past performances of the typical lightly raced Pletcher horse I usually see a very well bred lightly raced horse that slowly improves as it moves up the class ladder. He generally spots them very well in terms of distance, quality of competition, etc... They also fire their best shot a very high percentage of the time. All that often leads to a high win percentage and an underappreciation of the horses\'s chances on the odds board. That has been the case for years now.

I generally don\'t see the dramatic form reversals and improvement from TP that I see from other trainers. So I haven\'t had difficulty finding profitable wagers on his horses. That\'s the bottom line for me.

Again, I am all for strict testing, but as long as we have the situation we have now, the idea is to understand the training patterns of the \"suspect\" guys and bet them if you fimd a profitable situation.

The money is just as green if you figure out a certain trainer\'s horse is going improve (for whatever reason) as it is if you like the speed figure pattern. I don\'t worry as much about the \"why\" as some people. I just want to cash tickets.

[HP]

Class,

Wow is about all I can say, except this...

(1) \"I don\'t there\'s any evidence it mattered when it comes to the Pletcher horses in the Derby as others had suggested in the thread.\"

--So that was the first thing you wrote.

Then,

\"I generally don\'t see the dramatic form reversals and improvement from TP that I see from other trainers. So I haven\'t had difficulty finding profitable wagers on his horses. That\'s the bottom line for me.\"

--That\'s exactly the point.  Pletcher\'s horses are VERY consistent.  If you\'ve read JB\'s posts on this subject vis-a-vis Frankel, for example, one of the points he makes is that they don\'t bounce or react to efforts when you would think they should.  In other words, the repeated top efforts are one potential indication of...something going on.  Are you reading any of those posts?  Really interested in anyone else\'s opinion?  

(2) \"Again, I am all for strict testing, but as long as we have the situation we have now, the idea is to understand the training patterns of the \"suspect\" guys and bet them if you fimd a profitable situation.\"

--Here you seem to be modifying things a little, and are you suggesting that Pletcher IS indeed one of the \"suspect\" guys?  Or are you talking about another trainer or what?  Unless I\'m reading this wrong, here you seem to be suggesting that I could benefit from this if I could only understand Pletcher\'s training pattern.  And in the same sentence, you say \"suspect.\"  So I\'m guessing this means Pletcher may be \"suspect.\"

(3) \"The money is just as green if you figure out a certain trainer\'s horse is going improve (for whatever reason) as it is if you like the speed figure pattern. I don\'t worry as much about the \"why\" as some people. I just want to cash tickets.\"

--So you are not concerned about drugs, since you don\'t worry as much about the \"why\" as long as you are cashing tickets.  What happened to the guy two paragraphs before this who wrote,

\"Again, I am all for strict testing...\"

--So to sum up, you seem to have covered ALL sides of this issue...

In (1) Pletcher is not suspect based on his Derby performances.

In (2) Pletcher may be in the \"suspect\" group for you and you may take this into account when you handicap (for those \"profitable situations\" involving Todd Pletcher, right?).

In (2) you are all for strict testing.

But when (3) rolls around -- the money\'s green and you just want to cash, so to hell with really busting chops about strict testing.  You win!  

Good stuff.  

HP

[TGJB]

HP-- you know I love you, despite your annoying personality. And of course you are right. But you have to stop arguing with CH because LOGIC HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. He is looking for attention, and every person who challenges him gives him the opportunity to expound, reason and evidence notwithstanding. Which would be okay IF IT WASN\'T ON MY SITE. The guy is posting more than I am, and while I am open to some handicapping discussions that are supplemental or alternative to Thoro-Graph, I\'m not open to their getting as much play, let alone becoming what this board is about.

To a lesser degree this goes for a lot of you other guys too. I like that we have THE place for a sophisticated exchange of ideas, but there is way too much fluff starting to show up here. If you have something to say, post. If you post when you don\'t, you better be funny-- this ain\'t a chat line. It doesn\'t have to be about TG-- for example, Jimbo\'s post about a projected morning line is fine-- but we need a little discretion and focus here.

[HP]

Okay Jerry.  I thought my last post was pretty funny.  Sometimes I use the board to practice techniques for arguing with my wife.  I\'ll go back to the bathroom mirror for awhile.

HP

[TGJB]

My post wasn\'t about you, and it was moderately funny. Problem is it\'s guaranteed to bring a response.

HP,

I\'m not sure why I waste this much of my time with you, but this will be the last post. You mostly just enjoy giving me a hard time.

As far as I am concerned a trainer is innocent until proven guilty. I have the same suspicions about certain trainers that everyone else has, but TP is low on my list of those that are mentioned here often.

I consider the consistency of his horses to  mostly be the result of great stock, great horsemanship, and excellent spotting of his horses. Those are recognizable skills. Great stock is great stock!

I thought I was pretty clear about that.

However, since I (or anyone else) can never be sure, I do examine the instances that are mentioned by others as evidence of drugs (like the Derby). I saw no evidence that drug testing had an impact on the performance of TP\'s horses.

My personal preference as a \"fan\" is for strict testing and a clean sport.

As a \"gambler\", I actually think it\'s easier to win with these move up trainers than without them if you study their moves.

However, I have no control over this issue. I have to deal the with realities of the game as they exist and not how I would like them to be.

Rather than whine every day about some horse that improved to beat me, I make an effort to get a good line on the trainers and their patterns. From a gambling perspective, it doesn\'t matter why any specific trainer wins (drugs or superior horsemanship). It only matters that I cash tickets and not rip them up and whine about it.



Post Edited (05-17-05 17:24)

[HP]

Sorry Jerry, I promise this will be my LAST post for awhile.  I\'m going on vacation...

This is really offensive.  Nobody\'s \"whining\" about losing.  I don\'t whine, ever.  

You don\'t see any contradiction between being for \"strict testing\" and happily cashing tickets.  A triumph of amorality.  

I would be willing to forego a few winners to see the game cleaned up.  You sound like a Yankee fan.  Yankee fans aren\'t interested in baseball, they are interested in seeing the Yankees win.  If an umpire makes a bad call and the Yankees benefit, the Yankee fan is happy.  Most baseball fans want to win but they want to see the game played the right way and they don\'t want to benefit from any shennanigans.  

You are, in many ways, the typical racing fan, who doesn\'t care to reconcile your interest in gambling with any real affection or concern for the horse.  For all your lip service about \"strict testing,\" it\'s just that, lip service.  You could care less.  A guy like you will put up 100 posts here but you would NEVER take the time to write a letter or email Lou Raffetto!  You are content to pat yourself on the back about your astute powers of observation.  A real \"winner.\"

HP