bloodline bob wrote:
> Ok here’s the contrarian opinion. IMHO this site is way over
> the top on the drug issue.
Personally, I believe this site is the Advant Garde on this issue. Anyone that has followed the races closely the last five years has to know theres been a climatic shift to a few trainers that employ the same suspect Vet.
>The prevalent assumption here of
> some murky vet with some magic \"juice\" controlling some group
> of \"super trainers\" would make for a good novel but it borders
> on paranoia.
Sometimes novels are biographys or non fiction.
> It\'s all just sheer speculation and I think largely unfounded.
They are testing all over the jurisdictions to get a handle on this. Drugs are standard, what is out of the Grade I routine is \"drugs off\" and that is the current advant garde issue.
> “Juice” implies a hop. What if the juice for Scott Lake is
> myectomy (fix throat) and deep tissue massage as he has
> publicly stated. What if for Dutrow he has Allday fix them
> behind through internal blisters or injecting stifles or
> whatever (as he explained in DRF article). What if Frankel\'s
> thing is he just doesn\'t run them until they are right, buys
> domestic horses cleverly and knows better than anyone what to
> do with a Euro import (as he has been doing for 20 years).
>
> It\'s called horsemanship.
No, its not horsemanship. Theres at least two dozen better horsemen that the guys you\'ve mentioned. They\'d accomplish more if they decided to cheat.
> Either it’s that or it’s one vet with some magic juice that he
> can use with impunity and nobody else can figure out what it
> is. The logic that every time someone has success it’s because
> they are simply the most daring and crooked is IMO the height
> of cynicism.
The issue is that the substances are not on the controlled list or are not detectable. Or, at least to this point they haven\'t been.
> Don’t get me wrong I know there are cheaters out there and I am
> with you on the Maryland thing and tightening up the testing to
> punish transgressors and restore public confidence. It’s just
> not as bad as you think.
Its much worse than we even talk about. Its sickening to debate that deeply.
>It’s not that easy to hop a horse. And
> it usually doesn’t work.
Granted, you still need a decent horse to win a Grade I. Drugs or not.
> The recent press has been centered around milkshakes.
> Milkshakes have been around for 30 years. It’s like a marathon
> runner eating a candy bar during the race. It is right to
> outlaw them but it\'s not magic juice.
Yes, every substance given to a horse to make it run faster is illegal. Once identified it is added to the controlled list.
> Dutrow\'s suspension was for a \"caine\", like Novocain which is a
> local anesthetic and the first thing they test for (so that
> can\'t be what he\'s \"using\") plus clenbuterol which has often
> been legal in certain jurisdictions. Hardly \"juice\". Most
> \"hops\" through the years are really just pain killers like
> Sublimase which allow class horses to do their thing.
The reason so called \"pain and sickness\" medications must clear a horses system below certain concentrations on race day is because there is concern they may enhance performance in higher levels.
> Have you ever noticed how the super trainers’ horses look
> better than anyone else’s? How could a hop do that?
Thats an enormous supposition. Oxygen certainly could be a factor, without acquiescing to your theory the supertrainers horses look better.
> JB - You have a great product and provide wonderful insights to
> bettors. However it seems the premise behind your thinking
> lately is that horses are getting faster because they are
> hopped. The thing is you have scant proof of either.
The proof is in ridiculous performance figures coming from the same group of suspects. If you havne\'t been following the industry lately EVERYONE is finally doing a little something about it.
I find it
> amazing that you couldn’t analyze the derby until you find out
> where Afleet Alex took a bath! It’s so far over the top it’s
> laughable. Handicapping races is hard enough without
> contortions over figuring out who does or doesn’t’ have the
> \"juice\".
I never understood the significance of the \"Alex bath\" either and if they juiced him they should be ashamed because he fell off 6 points from his prior.
Now the Preakness:
Malibu Moonshine - This trainer is a long time horseman. He\'s a local icon. He\'s got a good hole and if Leatherby thinks this horse belongs here. Who wants to seriously disagree? Big Balloons exotic special.
High Fly - Bailey is helping to cost me money lately. Hime not identifying the pace and bias last was a puzzlement. If Bailey gives him a good ride he should be a factor. Can he win? Not sure yet.
Noble Causeway - Stevens put the big yank on him in the Derby. It absolutely stopped him and maybe stung, maybe not, he just didnt\' want to run from that far behind. They say his breeding is special. Still like High Fly more.
Greeley\'s Galaxy - Didn\'t train well at Churchill pre Derby. Broke like a slug. Ran inside rank and on the bad path early. Bumped viciously late and still kept on. Beaten half a pole but was it that bad? Possible winner.
Scrappy T. - Have liked this horse since horror Whirlaway Trip. Doesnt need the lead. Won\'t be far off of it. Toss Wood, other 2 turn efforts are fine. Can\'t leave out, still deliberating win potential.
Hal\'s Image - Loved his breeder. Old Hal brought his 3/4 brother along this trail. Halo\'s Image is not Jolies Halo though. Maybe a deuce to show for old Hal. Tend to think the family is running him for the old man.
Closing Argument - Well its offical. FREAK. Maybe not Smarty Jones Freak or Ghostsprinter Freak. But FREAK nevertheless. Bear out has to be a concern. Must use though. Can he win? Probably can.
Galloping Grocer- Looks to be on improve again, though restricted class can make a horse look good. Still think this horse has potential to return to form. The question though is what kinda form was that? Favor Scrappy more.
Wilko- Well, that was the last bit of my money he gets. He finished 6 lengths back, but at no time was he ever explosive or showing late stamina. Hes yours.
Sun King- Beaten 15 and 10 lengths respectively in his last two. Zito has brought horses like Louis Quatorze in to win off bad efforts. But this bad? Caught the bias part of the track but after a mile was definitely in \"Chuck it\" mode. Prado scoots. Don\'t like his new \"reserved\" style either, think it discourages him. You can have him.
High Limit- Still believe TGraph scored the Bluegrass closer to precise than anyone else and High Limit, though beaten handily at Keeneland, was the best of the rest by far. Mauled by Flower Alley and Noble Causeway and running on the worst part of the track understandibly tossed it in. Non effort.
Aleet Alex- Crist says he\'s 1 for 5 at two turns. (I guess 8.5 marks is two turns at Belmont now?) Shame on you Mr. Crist. You\'re a New Yorker! Make his record closer to (4) 1-1-1
That would be a 1st at 9 marks and a 3rd at 10 marks despite a Derby bounce. Beat him on form perhaps, but don\'t discount him on Sun King lack of distance affinity.
Giacomo- The luckiest horse in the world.
Going Wild - This horse really wants the lead and won\'t relax off of it. One day he\'s gonna get the lead again like in the Sham and its gonna be a pace issue. Not saying its Sunday, especially with High Limit poised to pop.
