Afleet Alex

[spa]

How far does he lay over this field ??

[big18741]

Spa you called the margin in the Preakness. Want to take a crack at this one?

I think he lays over them by a lot on pure ability.

I have a question though.  He sort of hung in the Derby.

Was that because he moved a little prematurely or because he really doesn\'t want to go much further than 9.5F - 10F?

I think we should keep in mind that he WAS slightly suspect at 10F going into that race and this is 12F.

\"IF\" it turns out that distance \"IS\" an issue does he lay over them by enough to win anyway?

[TGAB]

Let\'s try this. Afleet Alex hung because he bounced off the big effort in the Arkansas Derby. And now he enters off another big effort.  

[mikemd]

i think afleet alex and i are on the opposite oxoxo pattern.  everytime he zigs, i zag on him. i know he will be a significant underlay on my line.  so, i\'ll be using eight in here in pick four wagers and none of them are named \"afleet alex\".  the three on my main tickets will be the 2,4,5.  

That\'s the excuse I consider least likely because he\'s been such a model of consistentency other than when he was sick. I am more inclined to use that excuse when a speed figure is very fast relative to the horse\'s typical performance and the horse has a history of physical problems, it was earned off  layoff etc...

More often than not these very fast figures are earned under optimal conditions (like a very favorable bias/pace, easy field, etc..) or are no different than a 150 bowler having a single 200 game and then reverting back. We all have good and bad days around the \"average\" and easy conditions don\'t mean we actually played better.    

It may just be a matter of us having different definitions for the term bounce.  

In AA\'s case. He\'s a 3YO. He supposed to be getting better, but they rarely get better in a perfectly straight line. Plus, there were obvious conditions in that Derby that could account for it - like his ability to get 10F, a move that \"MAY\" have been mistimed a bit etc.. He did run quite well for 9F or so before crawling home.  

If this race was 9F I would consider him a HUGE favorite.

If he makes a bid, hangs a little and either wins or doesn\'t tomorrow I doubt it will involve bouncing off the Preakness.




 

[mikemd]

my xoxox (or whatever it was) wasn\'t in the literal sense.

I was responding to TGAB.

Besides, I think a lot of this stuff is simply a matter of having different definitions and reasoning for the same thing.  

[HP]

Class,

So are you going to stick your neck out and make a pick or what?  Who do you like in the race?  Any definitive opinion at all?  

I like Southern Africa.  

HP

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Alex did look a little short in the Derby, but how much was the rough trip and bounce from a HUGE Ark effort? In the Derby Alex was banged around pretty good twice, not as far off the pace as many think by the third call and he ran a good deal of the race on deeper parts of the track.

Obviously, he can\'t be bet to win here. If you think he can get the 12 marks he would have to be a odds on key and that is hard to stomach.

His two explosive moves at 9 and 9.5 marks certainly look to be able to carry him with authority to 10 marks, but the question is what about 12? Personally, I think he can do it, though the distance makes it a very tough race and have not picked the winner since Lemon Drop Kid\'s year.

Birdstone filled me with enthusiasm last year. Unfortunately it was second place enthusiasm. This year, you have to look at Indy Storm and Reverberate and think that they are the likely upsetters at 12.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

TGAB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Let\'s try this. Afleet Alex hung because he
> bounced off the big effort in the Arkansas Derby.
> And now he enters off another big effort.  
>
> TGAB

Agreed

[HP]

Chuckles,

Birdstone WON the Belmont last year.  So get your story straight.  If Birdstone filled you with enthusiasm, you cashed, right?  It would seem you would remember cashing at 35-1...

HP

[Saddlecloth]

HP,

I think he was saying he liked smarty and was just trying to complete the exacta.

[HP]

So a horse fills you with enthusiasm and he\'s 35-1.  I guess they don\'t have win betting at certain tracks!  Thanks for the translation from Clown-ese.  HP

HP,

I think Afleet Alex is the most likely winner. I can\'t remember the last time I took 6-5 on a horse. So I certainly wouldn\'t take that on a horse that I think \"might be\" vulnerable at 12F. The problem in constructing a bet is that there\'s really no one in the field that inspires much confidence as a bet against (at least for me). I may consider a few exactas with AA on top leaving off Giacomo if he goes off the solid 2nd choice. Maybe Checkov 2nd in the exacta???  I thought he had an excuse last time out being off slowly, wide, and well off a very slow pace. To be honest, It\'s more likely I\'ll just pass the race and enjoy it. I\'ll be there with friends. Good luck.