Speed is Speed, or is it?

[Silver Charm]

Fractions from todays races at Calder, The Summit of Speed which was a first class show put on by Calder and Gen\'l Mgr. Ken Dumb (sic).

This is a good example of comparing races and top class horses who all ran on the same day, at the same distance, at the same track, just not in the same race.

Woke Up Dreamin  117 3 4  4-1,  2-hd,  1-1/2,  1-3

Fractions: :21, :434, :561, 1:094    (:21.18, :43.92, :56.34, 1:09.80)

Madcap Escapade  120 6 3  1-2,  1-21/2,  1-4,  1-51/4

Fractions: :213, :443, :564, 1:094    (:21.69, :44.64, :56.88, 1:09.93)

Lost in the Fog  122 5 1  1-1,  1-1,  1-5,  1-7 1/4

Fractions: :222, :452, :57, 1:091    (:22.42, :45.46, :57.11, 1:09.30)

Lost in the Fog clearly benefited from the weak early pace and was able to draw away to a smashing vistory that will most assuredly result in a much faster number than Madcap Escapade and probably Woke up Dreamin who did have to go three wide to take over his weakening early speed.

The accelerating finish from Lost in the Fog was impressive but would have been even more impressive if he had run the same 22.42 opening quarter and sat 6 lengths back and mowed down the field in the Smile with a similar powerful finish. Keep in mind under the same pace scenarios as above Lost in the Fog would still have been 4-6 lengths back AT THE QUARTER POLE!!

Lost in the Fog beat nothing today, Madcap Escapade beat nothing today. Which one of these three sprinters is fastest, as far as todays results go, we probably learned nothing.

Incidentally the last week and a half of racing across the country has been something else. Particular thumbs up to Hollywood and Team TVG.
 

[davidrex]

     Excellent synopsis by S.C. on whether you can trust pace figures of races when early competition is nonexistent.
     Same can be said of 2-turn grass/dirt races where fractions are slowed by top horse in that particular race.
     

[Silver Charm]

I would be interested in continuing this dialogue once Beyer, and Brown, have released their figures for these three races.

I am sure both will get the ultimate final number correct but will it tell us that Lost in the Fog is significantly faster than the other two based on the way the three races were run.

Classhandicapper hopefully you played some Golf in Hilton Head but if you didn\'t I tee\'d this one up for you about as good as you can get.

SC,

I watched yesterday\'s major races at Calder. I\'m working on them. I don\'t know if the track changed speed, but on the assumption that it did not, I\'ll express a few initial thoughts until I examine the races more carefully.
 
1. IMO, it is not just the fractions that mattered (though I believe they mattered). It\'s also whether or not horses were pressured and how severely. Plus, not all quarters are the same even when the quarter mile times are the same. For example there is a difference between 11 + 11 and 10.3 + 11.2.

2. In theory a horse like Lost in the Fog could have run the exact same fractions he did in his race while off the pace against the stronger older colt field, but that\'s generally not what happens. What usually happens is that the horse runs close to its typical style and the jockey tries to remain in position to win without knowing what the exact pace is and how it will impact his horse. So the horse gets drawn into the faster pace to keep his position and not have to do something crazy to win later.

At first glance I would say it seems pretty obvious to me that LITF\'s race is not as good as it looks relative to the older colt race based on the time differential.  LITF got loose and controlled his race against competition that didn\'t even have enough ability to challenge him, let alone pressure him or cause him to run too fast early. Those were pretty easy conditions. It seemed fairly likely before the race that he might run a new top against that field. The older colt race was loaded with high quality speed that battled and pressed each other pretty much the whole way and put up what appears to be fast fractions relative to the final time.

It\'s a nice concept to think you can make perfect pace figures and apply them to the speed figures with a perfect formula that applies to all horses under all conditions that then produces a new number that tells you everything. I don\'t think that exists. IMO, tHere are only approximations. I\'ll go through the process of making the numbers to get an idea of how extreme each pace was and then form a general opinion about the horse\'s performances.

I think these are perfect examples of the differences in the \"quality\" of  performances that go beyond speed figures.  




 

[Saddlecloth]

I think if LITF had run up against WUD on saturday he would not have had the same final time, or if he would have won. When you can set the pace the way he did you or going to smoke home, it will be fun to see him with a class older horse who can throw down 43 and change and still finish.  He is so good it might not matter, but it will be fun finding out!

[Silver Charm]

Excellent Handicapping Post.

There were three really good sprinters in three different races yesterday. Very rare.

When Orientate and Xtra Heat ran a Calder a few years ago that was top notch, but with Lost in Fog in the three year Stakes yesterday was better.

When Lost in the Fog faces older they will bring the heat. However he looked like a much different horse yesterday than the one who ran at Gulfstream on Millions Day.

If Lost in the Fog wins out he is a candidate for Horse of the Year.

[jbelfior]

CH--


Excellent post. If we are talking BC Sprint (or is it the TVG BC Sprint?), then the question becomes can LITF press a :21 quarter and finish against the top sprinters in the world.

Chances are, as a 3yo, he will not abandon his style and that could cost him (see HOUSEBUSTER). Older sprinters, e.g. SPEIGHTSTOWN, are more likely to  adjust their style giving them the ability to finish up strongly as he did in last year\'s BC.  

As for using pace figures, especially going short, running style and final figures are a far better tool, IMO.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Saddlecloth]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CH--
>

>
> As for using pace figures, especially going short,
> running style and final figures are a far better
> tool, IMO.
>
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.

Joe, I actually see it opposite, I think in sprints pace is even more the factor then final time.  Last weekeneds Smile vrs Carry Back is the best example of that, I completely feel Woke Up Dreaming ran a superior race.

[jimbo66]

Saddlecloth,

Yes, in analyzing the races from Calder AFTER THEY HAPPENED, you can discount Lost in the Fog\'s race a little and upgrade Woke Up Dreaming, because of pace.

But how about BEFORE the race, as a handicapping tool.  How would pace analysis have helped you bet on Woke Up Dreaming?  In my book, it wouldn\'t have at all, it actually would have dissuaded you from Woke Up Dreaming.  The pace figures for Don Six were superior to Woke Up Dreaming and the fact that several horses had superior pace figures, probably would have led you to bet on a mid range stalker or closer, not a early speed type.  

Which is why final figures are more important in handicapping a race, in many people\'s opinion.  

Interesting that there seem to be more \"pace handicappers\" on this board than \"t-graph players\" lately....

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

Your Belmont number for the Woke Up Dreaming race BEFORE Saturday is about 3 points slower than Rags.  That seems like a big difference to me.  (He got a negative 2.25 on Rags and I believe your scale is about 3 points different).

Since the Belmont race, The Jerkens horse in that race (can\'t remember his name, but was ridden by Chantal Sutherland), has come back and run what might be a big race.  (I haven\'t seen the figure, but the horse won easily in what seemed to be fast time).

And now, Woke Up Dreaming won pretty easily in what most on this board think is a very fast race.

Any thoughts on how tight the Belmont figure was to you, and whether you need to go back and look at it.  (Have enough horses run back from that race yet - I am not sure).

Also curious as to what type of change could happen to cause a 3 point difference between your figure and the Rags figure.  I don\'t think we saw weather changes on that day at Belmont and the ground loss for Woke Up Dreaming would have to be really miscalculated for a three point difference.

[HP]

Jimbo,

You are so right.  Add in the fact that trainers and jockeys change tactics, frequently in inscrutable ways, and more often than not all this pace analysis does not add up to anything you can really get your teeth into and use.  Once in a blue moon you can look at a race and see a horse will have some kind of advantage based on pace, but more often than not I will be surprised to see a horse I figured would benefit from rating running too close to the lead or vice versa and it\'s all up in smoke.  The final figs are much more reliable indicators of a horse\'s ability, and more important, the patterns that you see are far more reliable indicators of future performance.

HP

[magicnight]

Joe;

Not to dismiss your point which may very well be valid, but didn\'t Housebuster rip his foot up something awful in his BC flop? I remember that he grabbed a quarter pretty bad coming out of the gate, which seems a pretty valid stand-alone excuse.

Bob

[Silver Charm]

He couldn\'t handle the early lick of Pine Tree Lane, then Very Subtle. Both gate speed fillies. Got him beat in both BC Sprints.

Madcap Escapade may do the same thing with this bunch

[Silver Charm]

HP wrote,

>The final figs are much more reliable indicators of a horse\'s ability.

Do not disagree with what you wrote except for the above mentioned point. Would someone please publish some numbers for the Calder races particularly Beyers.

If I am supposed to believe that Lost in the Fog is three lengths faster than the other two,

FORGET ABOUT IT.

The way those three races played out could generate a false conclusion regarding the respective abilities of the three runners.

[HP]

What would be the false conclusion?