jimbo,
I think analyzing paces and race results after the fact is useful. I\'d rather have a clear understanding of all the horses\' performances when they return than not.
Here\'s a little redboarding, but since I didn\'t bet the race and certainly wouldn\'t have bet the winner, I don\'t think there\'s any harm in presenting my thoughts prior to race.
It was obvious there was a ton of quality speed in the race. I was defintely looking for a horse that could sit just off the lead and pick up the pieces. I DON\'T THINK pace figures are all that useful in determining who will get the lead. They are most useful in determining how well horses actually have been running. I think style and quality are way more important in determining how the race will actually develop, who will get the lead etc... Pace figures are secondary because horses only tend to run as fast as required early. That\'s one key point.
I didn\'t think Tosconi or Don Six fell into the category of being able to deliver a peak performance without the lead and I thought they would compromise each other\'s chances. Woke up Dreamin was similar, but he did have one good performance from slightly off the pace and a bunch of other speed performances in routes. There wasn\'t much to learn about his versatility from those routes. I was less sure he would be compromised than the others, but there was still a good chance he would. The price made the decision easy. I could never bet him at that price with the pace risks involved and the incremental possibility he might not even duplicate his last performance.
Abbodanza was similar to Woke Up Dreamin in style, but IMO wasn\'t nearly as good. It\'s always tough for me to like the 2nd and 3rd string speed horses in a race loaded with quality speed.
After that, you are really starting to fish for a play based on the assumption that you will be 100% right about your fast pace assumptions (which is a silly assumption to begin with) and that it will impact all the superior horses by enough to get an inferior horse into the winners circle. That\'s a common mistake. Sometimes it does hurt them, but not by enough to get a dud into the winners circle.
IMHO, the idea pre-race is to understand the possible, probable, or likely pace outcomes and use that information to adjust your odds line to reflect those insights.
If there\'s no one in the race that seems to be an overlay given the pace risks and running styles, skipping the race is better than betting an underlay just because you don\'t want to pay attention to pace, don\'t believe in it, or are sometimes wrong about the race development. Not betting an underlay or in a situation you aren\'t clear about is just as good as betting an overlay.
Another key point to me is that some people think in terms of selecting a winner or assuming you have to predict the pace with certainty. You don\'t. You just have to understand the probabilities of the pace and adjust your line. At a certain price I would have bet any of those speed horses even though I thought the pace was going to be very fast.
After the fact, you analyze the pace and race results and use that extra information to evaluate them better the next time they run.
In any event, this is obviously all IMHO and I\'m sure there are pace applications others have to offer, but I think I bring something to the table on this issue because I\'ve been doing it for a long time and have already made all the mistakes that most people wind up making. So I have learned from them.
