Cnl 7/16: The Virginia Oaks

[Michael D.]

initial thoughts:

masseuse - half to two very nice turf horses (take a look at the TG sire stats). jogged first out this year, then improved a bunch last. with castellano up from post one, a ground saving trip is likely (notice JJ\'s turf stats - path and ROI). interesting horse.

flashy three - looks a bit slow

rich in spirit - stuck with 122 lbs, but gets a nice post and stevens. deserving favorite has the best figs. a matter of odds.

stravinsky\'s gal - too slow

dynamist - improved a bunch last over this course. gets velazquez, and has competitive #\'s. one of the ones.

snug harbour - most likely will give it up late, but not a bad stab for the exotics. jock has amazing turf stats, and the breeding is not as bad as one may think (half to two nice distance horses).

defensa - pattern heading in the right direction, and they have obviously been pointing towards this. needs another \"3\" or so points of improvement, and might lose one or two in ground loss, but has a shot.

my typhoon - out of the brilliant Arc winner urban sea, and is a half to the brilliant galileo, winner of english and irish derby\'s. got a bit tired in her first start of the year (notice the \"bi\"), then gave it up in the stretch in the sands point. eligible to improve in her third start, but odds might be a bit low, and bailey might have to give up a few lengths in ground loss trying to rate this filly. tough call.

great betting race. more to come as we get closer.

[jimbo66]

Michael,

At first glance, doesn\'t look like a deep race to me.

I believe that one of three will win, Rich In Spirit, Dynamist and Masseuse, in that order.

Rich in Spirit is the fastest coming in, but at the weights, she is less than a point faster than Dynamist and about 1 point faster than Masseuse.

i think there is good reason to believe that BOTH Masseuse and Dynamist are better bets to improve in this race.

Rich In Spirit has already had 7 turf starts and has established form on turf.  SHe has improved 5 points from her 2 year old top and has reached what looks to me like a plateau around the \"5\" level.  Not  a bad level, but I don\'t see a move forward.

Dynamist has only improved 2 points from her 2 year old top, which I guess could be a negative thing, but I think she has excuses for her races this year.  SHe bobbled in the race at Pimlico, then she came 3rd in a \"key race\" at Belmont, where the race was MUCH BETTER than a nw1.  Who\'s Cozy is a horse with a future and Dream Lady has come back to jog in an allowance race since then.  And for those that believe in such things, she ran against a speed bias that day on the turf course.  Dickinson goes back to Johnny V here and I think the horse is ready to move forward.  Since she is almost co-fastest at the weights, that makes her a possible play at 5-1 ML, versus the 7-5 ML Rich in Spirit.

Masseuse is also very interesting.  As you mentioned, the family is impressive, but the horse has also only had a few starts on turf and to me has room to improve.  Two back, she waited on the rail very professionally and then shot like a cannon when the opening arrived.  The last one was against a field that was more impressive than the class suggests.  She ran very well and wasn\'t bothered at all by a loose horse in the stretch, even digging in and trying to run down the loose horse, despite the jockey easing up on her, knowing the race was won.   Sheis also potential value at 6-1 ML and should be able to save ground from the rail.

For me, at expected odds, I play against Rich In Spirit and take one of the other two for a win bet, at 5-1 or better.  

Forget about your love for Stevens,  Michael D, you won\'t get value on Rich in Spirit!!  

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Turf Racing has the history, but its just not sufficiently reliable. Traffic and surface variables skew it far too often. The good race this week is the Delaware Handicap. A million bucks for fillies and mares going 10 furlongs. Where\'d all the Division leaders go? Ducking the distance? Come on guys this is a big ticket race for real fillies.

[Michael D.]

traffic and surface variables skew turf racing far too often? yea, the variables skew money into the pockets of people who know how to handicap those variables (at colonial downs, i probably won\'t be one of those people though). as for the delaware race, society selection should be running. pletcher would be an idiot he he ran ashado though. why give up weight at 10f? the BC is worth twice as much, they all carry the same weight, and the distance suits ashado much better (and i think the owners love watching their horses run at the spa).

.........

do me a favor though guys - let\'s try to keep the focus of this thread on the Va Oaks and TG. start a new thread for other issues.

Rich in Spirit looks like the obvious favorite and deserves to be.  I doubt there will be any value on her and I don\'t see any obvious flaws that make me want to bet against her.  

Dynamist ran pretty fast as a 2YO which would leave some room for better. Seems to be improving since running a few mediocre races.  Could be set for a new top.    

Masseuse is another that\'s likely to improve further.  

My Typhoon is probably the most interesting to me. Her two losses came against Melhor Ainda, who is probably on her way to becoming a terror (now Grade 1 placed) and who would be the favorite here. In her last, the pace was slow early but it picked up and got hotter in the middle. She put away Paddy\'s Daisey\'s when challenged (who is a pretty decent and consistent Pletcher horse) and held OK in a very fast last 1/8th. Well bred, lightly raced, great barn and improving. If she can avoid losing too much ground, she might be underrated a bit.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Michael D,

Been following the meet this year and actully plan to be at Colonial Live tomorrow. For those not as familiar with Colonial it is a Mile and 1/4 dirt track and two huge very wide turf courses. Speed has not been holding on turf so far this meet. Mid pack to deep closers have done very wellon both turf courses due to very  sweeping turns, unusually wide turf course and very long stretch. Dickinson and Motion run their regularly.

My Typhoon seems to want the early lead and will be pushed early by Flashy Three and Snug Harbor (who will quit on the final turn) may keep My Typhoon wide to turn 1 . Rich in Spirit spotting feild +4-6lbs will probably be stallking the early Speed horses, with STavinsky\'s Gal too slow for these. Leaves Massuese in tucked saving early ground,on the rail. Defensa will probably revert back to one last run (IMO) rather than stalking early pace (Last Race).This also Leaves Dynamist with an early stalking position either behind or next to RIS. If Massuese get\'s boxed inside that gives DYnamist and perhaps defensa first run unless the rail opens or the others all go wide and give Massuese a lane to run on late.  Only problem with Massues is short rest. With RIS spotting 1TG point on weight alone I think this makes Massuese a viable Win Bet and Exacta/Tri Key on top of Dynamist,Defensa,RIS and My Ty. I\'m Boxing with Dynamist

[Michael D.]

thanks tony. excellent info and a great analysis. i hope to get down there one day

[NoCarolinaTony]

Michael D,

Any opinion on Race 8 G3 or Virgina Derby yet? First Glance on TG says  Stupendous Miss  is a standout in a 14 horse feild. Should be some nice odds in Race. Va Derby the Pletcher Horse will be bet down but can be beat (I think) Not much of an edge for that one in TG Figs that I can see. I\'ll be working on that tonight. Keep me posted on your thought on those races. P Val in for Two Races for Frankel.

14 Horse Feild Wow. I hope I hit Big the race before.

NC Tony

[Michael D.]

 
i looked at the 8th quickly. i came up with stupendous miss over path of thunder (using POT only if the turf is firm however). i had snowdrops next, and have broad hopes with jj up as a longshot. i need to look at it closer though. with such a big field, there could be more sleepers.
........
do me a favor tony, post your va derby thoughts on the thread i started.

[Michael D.]

a huge field without a lot of pace. not much distance from the start to the first turn either. many of these will have their chances greatly compromised by the time they hit the backstretch. stupendous miss is the fastest, and she has a bit of tactical speed. i have to use her on top. path of thunder is also capable of runnng a fast 9f. looking at the works, seems as though pletcher is trying to teach her how to rate. from post 12 though, they really have no choice but to go. should get a decent trip. if the turf is firm, i will have her on top on some tickets as well. my uses underneath are:

stormin daina - huge odds. ran a series of \"7\"s in the spring in some tough races. not sure what happened last, but i doubt it took much out of her. nice post.

with affection - long odds. 9f is a bit of a stretch, but she should get a perfect trip on top. expecting a run in the \"6-7\" range.

broad hopes - long odds. nice pattern, nice race last. if castellano can save some ground, i think this one will be close at the end.

snowdrops - forget the last two. GP race was too long off two weeks rest, and she could have run a lot faster last. expecting a return to the \"5\" range.

humoristic - i think she came back a better horse as a four year old. ran a nice \"5.25\" first out at pim, then was the victim of a classic gryder ride last. expecting a run in the \"6\" range, but ground loss will be a major issue.

briviesca - nearly impossible spot for bailey here. i guess he uses her a bit from post 14, but he will still lose ground.

a great superfecta race. i guess i will key SM and POT on top, and spread it deep underneath in the supers, hope one of those bombs gets in there.

[jimbo66]

Amen on deleting the Clown\'s self analysis.

It is really too bad that we continue to see scratches ruin competitive and bettable races.  So Scrappy T is \"not quite right\", but will be OK in a week or two.  Should we expect the inevitable announcement next that Scrappy T will be retired to stud, \"for his own good.  We couldn\'t take a risk on injuring him, but he will be a GREAT SIRE\".  

The race went from having a solid favorite, with viable alternatives in the 3-1 range of High Limit and Sun King.  Now, you get co 2-1 or 9-5 on those two and you either skip the race or dig deeper and look for Golden Man to bounce back at maybe 5-1, if you are lucky.

Look at the last two days of Belmont racing, if you want to see scratches ruining the bettablility of racing, which does hurt the sport, even though noboby really cares about the gamblers.  2 four horse races today at Belmont and short fields all day yesterday, culminating with a $56 pick-4 and $57 pick-6.

They cancelled Colonial Downs racing after the 3rd race today, I really hope the weather doesn\'t ruin a great card tomorrow.  

[NoCarolinaTony]

Hey CtC,

Kinda ironic you piked a Day Channing Hill Won the first two races of the day.

What\'s your point with such short fields?

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

Michael D,

Just worked out my flight details to richmond. (Daughter works for USAirways) so I get to fly free standby. Plenty of seats available, beats driving 5 hours.

Anyway,I\'ve been leaning toward Stupendous Miss and agree with you 100% on this one. My Only concern on POT is the Gap between works and they are on the slow side. Briviesca is Royally Bred (Stu Miss beat her in Europe Last year) 9F might like the soft turf. Maybe over bet due to Bailey on top by this crowd, but will watch board for value. Otherwise I like Snowdrop next, and the others.


Im Betting Stupedous Miss to Win if over 4-1 and in exacta\'s with POT and Briviesca. Keying SM over POT,Briv,Snowdrop,Broad Hopes,  then the rest you mention in Super

Also Keep in Mind it is supposed to be 92% with 82% Humidity there. So watch how the horses act before race to bet.

In the Va Derby, I Like Rebel Rebel Quite a bit with both Post and Class Edge(Time Form 117+ very stronG). The horse looks like it might appreciate the addeded distance. Only Question for me will be heat to me. I\'m playing RR with Rushh Bay,and Ray de Cafe Exacta Boxes then Supers something like this 1-8-10 (W)1-8-10(W) 1-4-8-10(W) 1-2-4-7-8-10 should be $36 for $1. If Rebel Rebel is all heated up I drop him completely and move up the 7. I like the way Rush Bay has taken to the grass.  I\'m still looking at Prince Rahy last race may be a toss. One before was quite good. (No Rider listed so maybe scratched?).

I\'ll check this board early am before I catch flight.

Good Luck to you Mike, JB, Mall and the rest of ya\'ll.

NC Tony

[Michael D.]

good luck tony..... i like your views..... i will post some del picks, join in if you have any opinions...........

[Michael D.]

cnl and del - new territory for me. any views on the races today?