Cnl 7/16: The Va Derby

[Michael D.]

rebel rebel - tough call. ran very well in the english 2000 guineas, earning a competitive TG figure, then flopped in the irish version over much softer ground. should prefer the cnl surface (that\'s probably why he\'s in the us). first lasix, the rail, bailey, light weight, first frankel - can anybody leave this guy out?

chatt - blinkers, a quick work, and pval - he will probably break running. the horse has hung a bit though when facing the good ones, not sure 10f will be his best game. competitive figs. a contender, but i will take a stand against.

prince rahy - just ran last week and no rider announced. probable scratch.

english channel - should sit a perfect trip in behind CW and SW. \"3\" top makes him the fastest, and i think the horse had some gas left in the tank last out. i looked and looked for a reason to try and beat him at low odds - couldn\'t find one.

crown point - seems stuck in the \"8\" range. finished well going 9f last, and is bred to get 10f. wouldn\'t surprise me if he made a nice late run here, but lack of # power is a concern.

spring house - not sure he can break through the \"7\" lvl.

silver whistle - \"7\" last makes him a bit slow, but there are a few positives. dominguez always seems to save ground on turf (1.8 path), and he has an amazing $2.35 turf roi. i expect a perfect trip, hopefully on the front end. SW also gets in with 116 lbs. i don\'t think he can win unless the other jocks fall asleep, but i will use underneath.

rush bay - second fastest coming in, and a definite contender, but i will try and beat. might not get the best trip. starts from the 8 hole, and albarado often finds it difficult to save ground (2.2 path). also carries high weight of 120. even a repeat of the \"4.75\" might turn into a \"7\" after ground and weight.

interpatation - a bit of a tough trip last, but has been stuck at the \"8\" lvl for a while. pass from post 9

rey de cafe - had a nice looking pattern heading into the hill prince, then got bottled up in that race, and only had run for about 3/16 of a mile. bred to get 10f on top and bottom. i am looking for a very nice run from this guy, maybe in the \"3-4\" range. castellano is good at saving ground (1.9 path), but post 10 is a problem. jj either has to pull way back, or take the ground loss. a use form me.

i have to go with english channel on top. i will use rebel rebel, silver whistle, and rey de cafe underneath in the tri and super, hope SW gets in there at long odds, as the others won\'t offer much value.

Wide open race.

Rebel Rebel - has an excellent race in the 2000 Guineas. Other than that, there\'s not too much to get excited about. However he goes to Frankel. The approximate 2 month layoff seems to be the perfect time frame for move up trainers to work their magic. If I get involved, I can\'t see leaving this one out.

English Channel - is the likely favorite. No real edge in the figures, but it\'s hard for me key against a horse that\'s 4 of 5 on the turf with fairly consistent dominant wins when his 1 loss came off a layoff in a race where the final 1/4 was in 22.2 and he was coming from 9th. Not too many horses have Don Six-like first quarter speed in the last quarter of a 1 mile race. Even the recent dominant wins have been in slow paced affairs with sub 12 fractions late. I don\'t think we will find out how fast this horse really is until he\'s actually in a race where he gets to show it.

Interpatation - comes out of the same race as EC. He saved gound most of the way waiting for a chance to run, was steadied slightly when getting ready to swing outside for his run in the stretch and lost some ground to them because the horses were really sprinting at that point. Finished very well very late. This is not the kind of horse I think is a high probablity to win or even fire a huge effort, but it\'s the kind that I think could be better than he looks on paper because the pace and trip aspect of that performance are not that obvious and he doesn\'t have a great record prior to that. This is the kind of horse I like to use in exotics and hope he gets a trip or something to make a big ticket.

After that I could make a case for any number of evenly matched horses - some of which might be more likely than Interpatation but whose merits are more obvious.  

The key for me is that IMO English Channel \"could\" be a lot better than his figures indicate given all the slow paced races he been in and the way he\'s sprinted clear so dominantly in fast times late. That makes it tough for me to key against him - which in turn makes it difficut to find any value other than a move up trainer or a hidden trip.

[JEB]

Like the analysis on this race. It is challenging to beat English Channel. I would be shocked if this race does not end up with a SL PACE next to these horses b/c it seems that there is not a lot of speed in here.

I too like English Channel but I like Rush Bay at the morning line of 8/1. He had that nice number as a 2yo and has gotten back to it. A forward move puts him close to English Channel and he is bred to run all day.

I like those 2 and a trifecta with the Frankelhorse, Rebel Rebel. There just seems to be too many things going for him. My only negative was that his big fig came when he was 100/1 and was that just a fluke?

john  

jeb,

\"My only negative was that his big fig came when he was 100/1 and was that just a fluke? \"

I have the same question. We\'ll find out later

[Caradoc]

Michael: Very good analysis.  For what it\'s worth:

Rebel Rebel - Given the time since the 2000 Guineas, Frankel and lasix, it is highly likely this guy runs back to his 5.  And he gets the rail.  This horse is tough in here and a must-use.

Chattahoochee War - His last three make him very competitive in here.  This one has never really bounced and could have another forward move in him.  Further, he probably hits the front early and saves ground from the two box.  Also very tough -- this could be a Frankel exacta.  

Prince Rahy - is out.

English Channel - It seems to me there are reasons to be concerned about his line.  First of all, a 3 in April is a huge grass figure for a 3yo.  So he runs it, then sits out for 38 days and bounces to a 7, with trouble in that race.  How much did the trouble affect the fig?  While it\'s impossible to precisely determine, I\'ve watched the replay now twice this morning on racereplays and it does not appear to have been significant.  Still, let\'s say it cost him a point.  Had he bounced 3 points off a 38-day layoff I would be concerned.  My concern is heightened by the fact that he didn\'t quite get back to his top in his last.  The 4 is likewise a big effort for a grass 3yo in June, which leads me to conclude that he is likely to go back off only three weeks rest.  I wouldn\'t throw him out by any means, but I don\'t see why he should be favored over either Frankel horse.

Crown Point - He sure does seems stuck in the 8 range. I expected him top run a lot better last time, particularly inasmuch as 2nd off the layoff is Donk\'s move.  Is there any reason to expect anything but another 8 here?

Silver Whistle - It\'s hard for me to see anything better than a 7 here (and maybe worse), which will not get it done.

Rush Bay - I\'d love to beat this one as well, but he makes me nervous.  While he has reacted off the tops before, he eventually will break through.  Today could be the day so I have to use him.

Rey De Cafe - This one ran big on the grass at 2 and his pattern looks a little flat to me.  Given that, I wouldn\'t expect a backward move but off this line my guess is he runs in the 5-6 range, which might be tricky considering his post.

Good luck to all, but you better have Frankel on your tickets.

Peter

[Michael D.]

thanks peter. i stood big on english channel. 6/5 was fair. i also used your chatt after your advice. so i had the 9-1, 7-2, and 14-1 shots underneath in the super, but i just could not get them in the correct order. a stronger view of chatt and i hit it pretty good. i figured chatt would get the perfect trip with the blinkers and pval up, but i thought silver whistle would be in front, and i thought bailey would run down chatt late. good learning experience there.

[Caradoc]

Michael: Are there any races that look attractive to you today?

Peter

[Michael D.]

the $1 mio del race looks great now that the track has come up fast. i will take a look and post. too bad the rest of that card got ruined by scratched.