ROTW

[Michael D.]

M3,
i haved posted against HL in his last three starts. the horse has no heart, and i don\'t think i will ever bet him, but: 1:42.3 on la derby day was not slow. we could nitpick over the #, and one could argue it\'s off by a point or two, but it was still a fast race. as for the blue grass - i didn\'t like the race, but the two best figure makers on the planet said it was fast. not sure how you can trash this guys #\'s. jerry made sun king \"0\" going a flat mile, and given that he had post 1 today cutting back, i think we should be thanking TG for giving us an easy $7 winner.

[Michael D.]

ctc,
you stated in other posts that you were big time negative on SK. in fact, you could probably find over a thousand words of ctc analysis that was wrong before you found one decent winner. why? that\'s the only question i have. we are all wrong most of the time, but why make such a fool out of yourself?

\"

[Millennium3]

Michael:

Guess I\'m not being clear. I don\'t care about Sun King, or his figures today, or yesterday. I don\'t care about today\'s race result. I don\'t care what the price was on either Sun King or High Limit. My point of the posts I made today is that High Limit is a vastly over-rated animal by TG figures. He lost because he\'s a much slower horse than TG figures say he is. This is all about dubious figures.

High Limit was the horse that TG talked up all spring due solely to the figures they gave him at 2, and his LA Derby at 3. The 2005 Lousiana Derby is a garbage race: the first four home that day have yet to find a significant winners circle anywhere in 4 months since, and maybe not ANY winner\'s circle. If High Limit earns a \"1\" for that, then I say a \"1\" is worthless. Badge of Silver ran the same type of race the same day: speed on the Fair Grounds rail and he won too. Maybe that was the place to be that day.

High Limit has three \"1\"\'s on his sheet, and he runs on the race track like he\'s never broken 4 in his life. Go back and look at Cigar\'s TG sheet: last one I saw was full of 1\'s and zeroes. According to TG, a 1 is a 1 is a 1. High Limit equal to Cigar? Go ahead - build that case for me.

The horse is over-rated and has lost four in a row, which makes all his \"1\"\'s highly questionable at best.

[HP]

It\'s possible that the \"ones\" High Limit ran have taken something out of him.  Horses that run that fast that young often burn out.  I would say this might CONFIRM the accuracy of the earlier numbers (the fast early races burned him out) rather than cast doubt on them (since he can\'t reproduce them now the earlier numbers must be wrong).

The whole idea that you can use later races to confirm or disprove the accuracy of earlier numbers is a little shaky...there\'s not always a direct relationship...  If you look through the archives or the red board room, you will find LOTS of horses that run ONE amazing race and never get back to it...

HP

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ctc,
> you stated in other posts that you were big time
> negative on SK. in fact, you could probably find
> over a thousand words of ctc analysis that was
> wrong before you found one decent winner. why?
> that\'s the only question i have. we are all wrong
> most of the time, but why make such a fool out of
> yourself?
>
> \"

Michael, I said that I wasn\'t fond of Sun King cutting back especially in consideration of his Classic penchant for giving ground. Additionally, that was a track High Limit had been very comfortable with in the past and he is the better horse at that distance on his best day. I saw the post position and blinkers though and still wouldn\'t bet that race knowing Sun King was reverting to his earlier running style. If you think you scored a biggy more power to you. There is foolishness in this thread and its not related to my questioning Sun King or Passing. I\'ve questioned Sun King all along and been successful in doing so and I passed 90% of the races I handicapped over the weekend. In the Leonard Richards I both questioned Sun King and passed. He\'ll be beaten next time because his main competition won\'t be off form and he\'s not a horse a prudent handicapper is gonna bet.

[beyerguy]

This is the tough thing when making figures...did the horse run a monster, or was the figure wrong in the first place?  It seems too convenient to say when a horse runs back to the number that it was right, but on the other hand saying if horses don\'t run back to those numbers the big fig ruined the horse.

I think most of the figures like this are when horses run into highly favorable conditions that they aren\'t lucky enough to see again.  If High Limit sets a leisurely pace without pressure with Vicarage being the next best horse in the race, he\'ll probably run a 1 again.  This type of figure happens every day at all levels of racing, which is why it can pay to have additional info to supplement figures.


>
> The whole idea that you can use later races to
> confirm or disprove the accuracy of earlier
> numbers is a little shaky...there\'s not always a
> direct relationship...  If you look through the
> archives or the red board room, you will find LOTS
> of horses that run ONE amazing race and never get
> back to it...
>
> HP
>
>

I think you guys are arguing past each other.

It wasn\'t the speed of the LA Derby that was ever an issue for anyone. It was the quality of the performance that was an issue. Most handicappers slowly started understanding that as horses failed out of that race.

High Limit made a clear early lead on the rail in a moderate pace on the same track that produced many wire to wire/close up winners. That includes Badge of Silver dueling in insane fractions and still going on to record his usual speed figure at a distance that\'s at his outer limit under normal circumstances and Summerly who hasn\'t recorded a figure that high since then despite being a developing 3YO.  (there were others)

I argued immediately after the LA Derby that the race was suspect because of its non-competitive development and generally weak field.  
   
The \"1\" is legit.  However, a \"1\" earned under optimal conditions is not equal to a \"1\" earned under typical or rough conditions. No horse even made a move in that race.  Even HL\'s figures at 2 were earned under favorable conditions.
 
The debatable \"1\" is the Blue Grass because there was a wide range of opinions about how fast that race really was. We never got a lot of evidence out of it because Bandini got hurt in the Derby, Consolidator got hurt in the race, and Closing Argument was generally considered to be a short horse going into that race that improved in the Derby. High Limit and SK (until yseterday) have been floundering since.  

CTC,

I think Sun King will probably be a great bet against in his next start if he runs against higher quality horses. He\'s never going to get it any easier than breaking from the rail, making an easy lead in a soft pace, in a race where his only major competitor lost lengths at the start, was wide, and was forced out of his typical style which should have put him on the lead.

I think we would have learned a lot more about how good Sun King was yesterday if High Limit broke well, made the lead, and Sun King was working to stay with him or if HL had at least broken well and the pace had been contentious right from the start. From all appearances, SK would have won anyway (HL was pretty bad), but I doubt he would have looked NEARLY as impressive. I\'m probably going to try to beat him next time because IMO he\'s earning back his reputation off what was only a decent performance.

[HP]

I almost didn\'t post because I knew if I wrote that it would get Class to regurgitate his LA Derby/Blue Grass points since it featured High Limit...even though High Limit is really incidental to what I was trying to say.  

That\'s 2,000 times Class.  It\'s nothing personal and I\'m not trying to offend you, but I wouldn\'t want to read CRIME AND PUNISHMENT 2,000 times and I think it\'s a great book.  Why do you need to repeat yourself 2,000 times?  I hate to agree with Jerry, but he\'s right about you.  You really need help.  It\'s LITERALLY 2,000 times that you\'ve said the same thing.    

I am rooting for High Limit and the rest of this crop to be retired as soon as possible because EVERY time they run from now until doomsday we will have to read this LA Derby/Blue Grass blah blah blah all over again.  I hope none of them are injured but I just want these horses to stop running.  HP

[Millennium3]

HP:

Your response basically underscores my subtextual argument, that Figures are a \"Chicken or The Egg\" proposition. Your assertion that a \"1\" early on burns ability later is a defacto bolstering that the \"1\" is legitimate. This is pure Self-Fulfilling Prophecy.  

As for going back and seeing how others ran in the race in question, how else would you know whether a figure is accurate, or stands up to scrutiny? Let\'s say I grant you that a single other animal out of the 2005 LA Derby has floundered to regain a figure he got that day (and it\'s my understanding TG asseses figures for all in a race based on what they think was reproduced by another entrant in the race). OK. But all of the first four home running poorly subsequently? In 4 months NONE of them ever ran anything to confirm that \"1\" of High Limit\'s is legitimate? In fact, have ANY of them won a race of any kind? Anywhere? If subsequent races reveal the LA Derby was chock full of those headed for the claim box, am I supposed to conclude that High Limit\'s \"1\" that day against those kind, or even in his maiden race debut sprint, is the equivalent of Cigar getting a \"1\" for any of the stakes he won?

Figures (TG, Rags, Beyer) are subjective assessments, period. No matter what their inventors or adherents claim. To say once a \"1\" is granted it\'s immutable, (in fact as you claim bolstered by whatever scrutiny is applied to it), is the equivalent of proud & openly admitted membership in The Flat Earth Society.

[beyerguy]

Vicarage won at Belmont the other day, allowance race.  To be honest, I can\'t remember another horse that ran in the La Derby off the top of my head.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Millennium3,

I hear you saying you don\'t believe in figs and they are subjective. That\'s fair and your opinion. Tell us what you do believe and or espouse as the better method? Is it Trip? Is it Pace? Is it Class? You seem to act as if you have the holy grail(Speaking of world being flat) so Enlighten us. We get your point. But don\'t tell us we\'re stupid and ignorant without telling us the right answer.

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

How About Rush Bay on Grass in Va Derby WHo Won G3 @ CD in prior on Grass.

\"I hear you saying you don\'t believe in figs and they are subjective. That\'s fair and your opinion. Tell us what you do believe and or espouse as the better method? Is it Trip? Is it Pace? Is it Class? \"

Is all of the above in combination with speed figures an option?

[Millennium3]

Point out to me where I said anyone was \"stupid\" or \"ignorant\". I said figure making is subjective, period. And TG is the first one to make lots of noise on this board when they claim other Figure Makers have a race \"wrong\" and they have it \"right\". Here it is in plain English: TG screwed up in assessing High Limit as a \"1\" type horse.

That\'s what I said.