Calder Sprints

[TGJB]

Attached are the Calder races won by Woke Up Dreamin and LITF. There were showers throughout the day and a pretty solid wind, not that there would have to be weather for me to break a race out (see \"Changing Track Speeds\" in the archives). I added pretty good (about 3 1/2) to the 3yo race, left the maiden race that followed as a box because there wasn\'t enough data within the race to draw any conclusions from, and with the track changing speed I didn\'t trust tying it to the other races.

Anyway, I liked giving reasonable new tops to 2 horses better than giving big ones to 3 horses. This is obviously the kind of race we\'ll keep an eye on going forward.

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

You said you are going to keep an eye on it going forward, so maybe my posting is not necessary, but I am going to play devil\'s advocate on the LITF number being too slow.

I don\'t see the driving force to break this race out and add 3+ points.  By doing so, you wind up with a six horse race with the following:

Qurreall gets his 4th \"5\" in a row.  So as a healthy 3 year old, he shows no improvement over 4 races.

Hot Space - gets basically a pair up in his second race of the year, for a trainier (Ziadie) who is not a layoff trainer, and it could be likely that a 3 year old will improve in his second start of the year.

Cin Cin, Dazzling Dr Cavin and Crawfish King all get major regressions.

Lost in the Fog gets a new top.  His last race was run on a day where the track variant went crazy and he beat a horse coming in off of paired negative 3\'s, earning only a \"1\" in the race.  (And you have said that you will have to recheck that figure already).

So, in a race of 3 year olds, none of whom has run very much this year, we had one of six horses run a new top.  3 regressed and two paired up.

What is the figure that you often use for healthy 3 year olds running new tops?  I don\'t remember off the top of my head, but I thought it was reasonably high.  

[TGJB]

It\'s about 50% for a paired or new top. My guess would be about 20% for a new top, as defined in the studies. But in general, a pair (especially one that tight as opposed to + or - a point) is virtually always more likely than a new top.

Even if you take off from LITF\'s previous, his last would be a big top even as is. If you start taking off more, 3 of them will get significant tops. Not impossible, and I will be watching it, but less likely.

[Silver Charm]

Probably will go down as one of the more confusing and controversial figure-making days of the year.

Interesting piece by Steve Crist on DRF.com discussing LITF which seemed to downplay the performance because of the poor pace figure. Can\'t really disagree with anything he said regarding the pace figure. A lot of what he said was previously discussed here in the \"Speed is Speed, or is it\" string. Beyer on the other hand didn\'t hold back and assigned the race one of best sprint figures of the year a 116 while giving the other two WUD and ME around 107.

At least that is what it was the last time I looked. In the Hollywood Gold Cup DRF Form Lava Man had a 112 in his prep then after he ran off the screen in the Gold Cup he got a 120 and then his prep suddenly got faster, a 116. Check the DRF leaderboard and you will see what I mean.

As far as LITF goes there was definately gusting wind that day. Primarily coming from the south, which was down the backstretch. There were also showers but none from the time they ran the Azaela until the Carry Back.  

Did Calder scrap or adjust the track, who knows. However it was a little unusual that this race was scheduled as though it was the main attraction. I personally think LITF got away with a soft pace and \"freaked\".

SC,

\"At least that is what it was the last time I looked. In the Hollywood Gold Cup DRF Form Lava Man had a 112 in his prep then after he ran off the screen in the Gold Cup he got a 120 and then his prep suddenly got faster, a 116. Check the DRF leaderboard and you will see what I mean. \"

I saw that too.  

He recently also upgraded a few other figures a few days after he assigned them, but I can\'t remember the specifics.  

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Attached are the Calder races won by Woke Up
> Dreamin and LITF. There were showers throughout
> the day and a pretty solid wind, not that there
> would have to be weather for me to break a race
> out (see \"Changing Track Speeds\" in the archives).
> I added pretty good (about 3 1/2) to the 3yo race,
> left the maiden race that followed as a box
> because there wasn\'t enough data within the race
> to draw any conclusions from, and with the track
> changing speed I didn\'t trust tying it to the
> other races.
>
> Anyway, I liked giving reasonable new tops to 2
> horses better than giving big ones to 3 horses.
> This is obviously the kind of race we\'ll keep an
> eye on going forward.
>
>

I took a look at the TFigs for the day and was confused by the current race indicator indicating a race where none occurred. It must be a prompt of sorts for the day the TFigs are pulled.

Whats the controversy? There were a lot of sprints and dirt racing on a generally uniform surface. Woke Up Dreamin is an older horse that has obviously found more relatively recently. Foggy is a dang good three year old. Egghead is dead, perhaps in part from running hard to try and catch him.

Woke Up\'s negative four is a big number, but that was a very exceptional looking race. What did Beyer Score it, anyone know?
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 07/19/05 04:57PM by
> TGJB.

[beyerguy]

The \"controversy\" is the WUD received a better figure despite a noticably slower final time than LITF.  Despite why this is the case, I don\'t think it matters much.  Beyer gave LITF a 116 or so, WUD 109, but I don\'t know too many people that think LITF ran a better race.  I don\'t even think he ran better than Madcap Escapade.

With the weather, tough to call the surface uniform.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

beyerguy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> With the weather, tough to call the surface
> uniform.


Uniform as to fair. Bias generally isn\'t a factor at Calder. Sure didn\'t mean to imply the condition of the surface didn\'t change. It obviously did. You have to nod in unscientific agreement to TFigs finding a surface change.

Where I sometimes question are the tough races where performance grids are placed over the entire field finishing positions to come up with an eye raising number for an open length winner. There haven\'t been many of them and I was certainly wrong about one: Ghostuser. Though you had to acquiesce to him being fast it was a question of distance and fitness in taking shots at him.

[HP]

Chuckles,

\"Where I sometimes question are the tough races where performance grids are placed over the entire field finishing positions to come up with an eye raising number for an open length winner. There haven\'t been many of them and I was certainly wrong about one: Ghostuser. Though you had to acquiesce to him being fast it was a question of distance and fitness in taking shots at him.\"

You\'re another one.  Just endlessly repeating nonsense.  You even keep going after Ghostzapper has run holes in the wind over and over again.  The facts don\'t have any impact on you.  You don\'t think much of Ghostzapper?  Really?  Tell us again.

HP

[jimbo66]

Distance and fitness were questions for Ghostzapper?

A graded stakes winnder from 6 furlongs to 1 1/4.  

I guess he didn\'t prove he could win at 1 1/2 to 2 miles.  

[Silver Charm]

The Controversy surrounding these races and LITF just keeps growing. Yesterday on TVG announcer Todd Schrupp virtually accused the DRF staff of calling the horse a \"dog\". In a article on DRF.com writer Mike Watchmaker called LITF a well-managed three year old sprinter and nothing more.

I get the sense several members of the media are suffering from a serious case of indigestion when it comes to calling the next horse they see one of the all-time greats. All having been badly burned when they rushed to eat a rather large chunk of the cheese Stronach/Frankel and Co. so visibly placed in the \"Greatest Horse of All-time\" hype trap in regards to Ghostzapper. This is the same Ghostzapper who only ran eleven times in four years and most of the spots he picked were in some serious need of Levitra.

This is unfortunate for LITF who has danced every dance: Golden Gate, Gulfstream, Aqueduct, Belmont, Calder and taken on all comers who dared show up. However the \"Greatest Horse of All-Time Card\" can only be played so often or soon the fans begin to cry wolf. And keeping in the theme of the \"World Championship Poker Tournament\" currently being played it had to be difficult for most members of the media who said, \"I\'m all in, Hit Me\". Only to see when the card was turned over it was the Joker and had the faces of two men wearing jester hats both whom had a striking resemblance to Frank Stronach and Bobby Frankel.

This might be the most difficult competition Lost in the Fog faces all year.

SC,

I thought Watchmaker\'s article was a tad harsh. LITF has strung 8 races in a row without ducking anyone in his category. That category is \"3YO sprinter\". There aren\'t many 3YO sprinters that are world beaters in the spring and early summer. So yes, the competition he has been beating has hardly been career defining, but some were OK. His figures have only been \"fair\" relative to the typical Grade 1 older sprinter, but they have been \"ahead of the curve\" all year for a 3YO. If he continues to move forward between now and the BC sprint, I think he\'ll be a force to reckon with.

However, IMHO, when pressed at 7F both early and then late by Egg head at Belmont (on a track that IMHO was tilted slightly to speed) he demonstrated both from a winning margin and speed figure point of view that he would be very vulnerable at this stage of his career to the type of extreme heat one typcially sees in a solid Grade 1 event for older horses (like the BC) where the pace is fast, contested, and you generally have to beat off several tough challenges and still earn a big figure to win.        

IMHO, his Calder sprint was fast enough, but he won\'t have a handful of limited winners without enough ability to even challenge him let alone pressure him when he faces the big time in the BC. Trips don\'t get any easier than his last and tougher than in the BC. He\'s going to have to continue improving between now and BC day to get the job done and prove he\'s special.  

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

HP Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles,

>
> You\'re another one.  Just endlessly repeating
> nonsense.  You even keep going after Ghostzapper
> has run holes in the wind over and over again.
> The facts don\'t have any impact on you.  You don\'t
> think much of Ghostzapper?  Really?  Tell us
> again.
>
> HP


HP, lets talk about something novel. Lets talk about figures, whatayousay?  To do this, lets create what is referred to in the scientific community as a “hypothetical”.  Lets say there’s a day’s racing card at an eastern track. Because completely unchanging surfaces are so rare in a day of horseracing, lets assume in our hypothetical the surface received rainfall the previous night and was in a drying out condition throughout the race day.  Lets further assume that in the drying out condition the track is gradually changing with the passage of time between each race to become more glib or faster. Late on the card, one of the Stakes features on the day is run and on a par time for respective class comparison the race comes up a little slow, however these horses are in a class where you can anticipate them running tops or near tops on a fairly regular basis per a relatively new statistical analysis regarding such. Additionally, in the past on the respective performance figures they have been relatively consistent in the performance figures they have earned.  

The scenario:  The track has been becoming faster yet the consistent Stakes horses have run slower on a par time review. Do you give them full faith and credit for being as good as they have been or do you figure them down on the “objective” basis of their raw race time? In other words did they run another hole in the wind?

Now the answer to that question seems straightforward, but is it? Now, to make our hypothetical more interesting assume you don\'t have a handle on a drying out condition and the Stakes horses run a bit slow.

lol

[HP]

Chuckles,

What I do is I pay Jerry for the figures and I pretty much go with them.  If you\'re trying to get into Ghostzapper (AGAIN!) please give it a rest.  I get it.  HP

[xichibanx]

I have to agree on your final point SC.  One thing I noticed in the past few years is that the racing media tries to create stars.  \"Greatest Horse of All-time\" as you say it is their way of trying to make a horse that is a nice horse into the greatest horse since a young Swaps.  Officer was an example of this and a few others could be but time will tell to see if they are the real deal or just a nice horse.

xichibanx