ROTW

[jbelfior]

Getting back to the Eddie Read and CASTLEDALE/SINGLETARY.

With turf races providing closer finishes than dirt races, post position, weight and running style are even more important factors. This is constantly emphasized in THORO\'s analysis whenever the ROTW is a turf race.

Another important factor, often overlooked by most, is the success of a turf runner at the distance. Whereas many dirt runners may be as proficient at 1 1/8th as they are at 7f or 1 mile, it\'s a rare turf horse that can excel at multiple distances. This may be even more pronounced with turf milers. Most are milers, not milers and an eight, especially when competing against graded runners.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

joe,

I wouldn\'t argue what the best way for Singletary to run is. You may be right that he perfers a target to run at under typcial circumstances.

I would just argue that he had almost no chance to win yesterday \"at 9F\" given the way they chose to run because the winner was very similar in ability and loose on the lead in a slow pace with 1 1/2 length head start when the real running began.

If you read through the whole thread we discussed some of this prior to the race.

Singletary and Sweet return had run against each 4 times in the past and Singletary was in front of SR in all those starts. He had the option of trying for the lead or at least making SS work a little. They made a choice to take back yesterday and said they would do so in a DRF article. I thought it was mistake when I read it and I still think it was.

IMHO, once they let SS loaf on the lead, they were conceding the victory to him or praying that he was just going to come up empty. Perhaps he would have lost anyway (maybe even worse) if he tried for the lead, but he couldn\'t win this way.

Anyone this has already been overdiscussed.  

[jimbo66]

Class,

You are correct about the Salvator mile, but I am blocking that from memory.  After deciding that Cherokee\'s Boy was going to be alone on the lead and very dangerous (consistently runs in the \"1\" range), I somehow made a last minute decisioni to Snookie\'s Boy, thinking that with the rail edge and an aggressive Stewart Elliot, the horse might run back to his 2004 form where he gave Lion Heart fits.  

As for your odds line, why would you kick yourself for not taking 5-2 on a horse that you thought had a 30% chance to win?  That doesn\'t make sense at all.  5-2 is 28.6%.  

[jbelfior]

CH--


You\'re right. Under the circumstances, SINGLETARY had no shot. But no way I\'m getting into a pre-race pace scenario here.


Good Luck,
Joe B.  

[HP]

Class,

You should pat yourself on the back.  Anytime you pass at 5/2 it\'s the right thing to do.  You\'re not going to the track to make 5/2!  You can do better than that.  If I look at a race and the best I can do is 5/2 I\'ll pass it every time.  

HP

[Saddlecloth]

My take, not that its worth all that,

9 furlongs is just to far for Singletary but I believe he is the best \"mile\" canidate in there, duh he won last year, but I think he is world class at that distance this year as well.

What ever happened to the frankel horse Leroid\'s that looked so awsome at santa anita?

Anyway, Castledale was a terrible chalk IMO but I bet singletary, oh well, 4/1 seemed fair to me.  He just needs a bit shorter.

[Michael D.]

HP,
keying big on a $7 horse in a pk3 or p4, or even a pk6, is excellent handicapping, and can lead to big scores. if you are just looking for action every race, go to the dog track. they run races every ten minutes, and they finish in about thirty seconds.

..........

in fact, many also keyed big on sun king ($7.40) in last week\'s ROTW. i think a few wound up taking home large sums of money, partly because they understood that race. think any of the guys in the IRS line at Del were taking the view that it never makes sense to use a $7 horse?

Jimbo,

>As for your odds line, why would you kick yourself for not taking 5-2 on a horse that you thought had a 30% chance to win? That doesn\'t make sense at all. 5-2 is 28.6%. <

With a rebate it was a borderline bet.

I think I also tend to be a bit too conservative in my estimation of the chances of my top horse winning (and overestimate other contenders a bit).    

Michael,

I agree with you.

If you can find a few horses that are \"borderline good value\" as win bets and can hook them up in a pick 3 etc... there\'s often great value on the combination.

[RICH]

leroids, running at Saratoga in the fourstardave.

[HP]

Michael,

I hate multi-race bets.  I keep track of my plays and after two years without a doubt the biggest black hole in my wallet comes from pick 3\'s (I never even attempt the pick 6).  If you get results more power to you...

I\'m content to pick up what I can race-by-race.  My bankroll isn\'t huge, and I\'d rather put more money into an individual race where I feel good.  HP

[Saddlecloth]

thats interesting that he is opting for that spot when you had the eddie read for 400k and the del mar breeders cup for 250k at a mile as well.