Question for TG, HP, DP, and Superman

[Michael D.]

I posed a question a while back (nearly impossible to piece together the actual handicapping posts now): Is the Belmont Stakes a race that can be handicapped using sheet patterns, while ignoring the fact that horses must run a quarter mile further than ever before? It seems as though HP, DP, and Superman all think that the horses previous patterns are the key to finding the winner, while the extra distance is not. Well, it appears as though somebody over at the Racing Form has referred to guys like HP, DP, and Superman as \"trendy\" handicappers who know very little about the race. Do you guys have any reply to the \"diary\" today. TG, any opinion on this? (ideas only allowed on this string)

[HP]

Distance is always a factor, as is pace, the weather and other things. The figures and the pattern are a guide. Figures are obviously past history and we are in uncharted territory (just like the Derby, so what is so unique about the Belmont, S. Crist?), but I have to start someplace. In this instance, the figures, the pattern and the distance are telling me to try to beat War Emblem at 2-1, since I think all these factors are working in the same direction and may finally have a cumulative effect. I need more info on the contenders to say anything else (though that doesn\'t usually stop me). Sunday Break (short price) and Perfect Drift should both \'qualify\' for the distance, but I don\'t know enough about the rest just yet. HP

[TGJB]

Michael D. wrote:
>
> I posed a question a while back (nearly impossible to piece
> together the actual handicapping posts now): Is the Belmont
> Stakes a race that can be handicapped using sheet patterns,
> while ignoring the fact that horses must run a quarter mile
> further than ever before? It seems as though HP, DP, and
> Superman all think that the horses previous patterns are the
> key to finding the winner, while the extra distance is not.
> Well, it appears as though somebody over at the Racing Form
> has referred to guys like HP, DP, and Superman as \"trendy\"
> handicappers who know very little about the race. Do you guys
> have any reply to the \"diary\" today. TG, any opinion on this?
> (ideas only allowed on this string)

TG--Historically, patterns and ability (figures) have been far more important than pedigree and distance distinctions between overall 2 turn ability and mile and a half ability. The tricky part in some cases is assessing the cause\\effect relationships to horse than ran bad--distance? bounce? bounce off a pair? We\'ll post some recent Belmonts, and you judge for yourself. (Attached are the 1st 3 finishers in the Belmonts from 2001 back to 1995.)

[Mall]

And for me, not always easy to remember who\'s who when the strings go on & on, which accounts for my mistake in pairing you up with superfreakicus for the Mr T. video. Sorry about that, unless the Superman you\'re referring to is the \"whimsical\"(not the adjective I\'d use JB) one.

Your question raises 2 questions: (a) do you believe that the most important handicapping factors in different races are themselves different? & (b)do you consider handicapping to be something akin to an algorithim, in that the different factors should be given different weight depending on the specfics of the race under consideration?

If your answer to both questions is yes, then in all liklihood the ability to get the distance in a 1 1/2 mi. race should be given considerably more weight this Sat. than many of the other factors you will be taking into consideration. Exactly how much will become clearer when the sheets & brisnet are available.

[tonyk]

Just saw part of WE \'s workout ,gotta say the horse still looks sharp and still looks like a handful to pull up .

[dpatent]

Michael,

Good question.  My exact quote on this was:

My experience with the Belmont is that pattern analysis holds up fine. The one caveat is that horses coming off big new tops are extraordinarily likely to bounce and bounce big, especially if the distance breeding is not there. I also think that there is a slightly greater risk that horses will run poorly relative to their top given the distance, but I don\'t have enough data behind that conclusion to make a sweeping generalization.

I read Christ\'s diary and I\'m not sure there is anything in his column of use to someone trying to handicap this race.  First, he takes issue with the \'trendy\' handicappers\' argument that \"the pace is softer, everyone just gallops early, and the race would turn out about the same if it were 9 1/2 or 10 furlongs rather than 12.\"

Well that\'s not the argument I made or the argument that I read the others on this board are making.  I have argued there is a stronger correlation between speed/pattern and the results than breeding and results.

Two additional questions to Christ on this point:

1) Did the winners who \'overhauled\' those horses who \"handled everything except 12 furlongs\" have slower numbers and worse patterns than the horses they collared inside the 1/4 pole?  I don\'t think so.  All of the winning horses were either just about as fast or had a better pattern coming into the race.

2) Did we know enough about the contenders going into the race to say with confidence that they would either flourish or fail at 12f? While some horses were easy to peg as likely to run well at 12f (A.P. Indy, Victory Gallop), others were not so easy.  Bet Twice?  Thunder Gulch? (he supposedly couldn\'t go 1 1/4 miles), Commendable?  Tabasco Cat?

As usual it\'s always good to have a theory, but facts are usually better, as long as there are enough of them to make a judgment and there is a reasonable explanation for them.

Based on the results from the last 10 years it appears that the fastest horses going in who had solid patterns are the ones who ran well.  I don\'t have sheets going further back but my limited memory is that this trend held true at least back to the late 80s.  And that is not coincidence.  That\'s what we find every day at the races at all kinds of distances at all levels.

There also did not appear to be a significant difference between the ability of a horse to get 10 furlongs and 12 furlongs.  The far more important factors were the numbers and the pattern.  

If a horse was on a downward trend from a big top (e.g., Winning Colors, Unbridled, Cavonnier) or immediately coming off a big top (a bunch of non-contenders who got bet because they had just popped a big number in the Peter Pan or Withers) they ran terrible, probably worse than if they had been running a shorter distance.  I also don\'t think that any horse coming off a significant new top (4 or more points) in his prior race has run particularly well.  None of them have won recently.

Bottom Line: All things equal (number and pattern), the breeding of a horse might make you shade a horse + or - 10-15% of his chances (i.e. an 8:1 might become 7:1), but trying to cut the line too fine will probably hurt you in this kind of race.

[Mall]

According to the brisnet breedings stats(pps available gratis near the end of H\'s Edge) it appears, interestingly enough, that the horse with the best distance breeding is Like A Hero, followed fairly closely by Perfect Drift. I agree with your assessment re MDO\'s running style, & note that it appears that WF is going to challenge WE on the front end with the kind of quality speed which has been missing in WE\'s last 4 races.

[Alydar in California]

From David Patent: \"I read Christ\'s diary...\"

They just put that in there to test your atheism, David.

 Patent: \"Two additional questions to Christ on this point...\"

Dostoevsky\'s Grand Inquisitor should have been so bold.

[superfreakicus]

hehehe...
can I assume I\'m superman?
if so, thank you --- we\'ll see how super I am after the contest.
although, I don\'t think heat vision will help me in here, and I never read about him having any super handicapping ability.

do you refer to some dumbass crist diary?
if so, about the only comment I have is that crist is a moron, and I\'d bet horses w/the same name as my cat before I looked for his advice.
I read his first couple derby diaries, and they were less than worthless.
I\'m sure reading this one would just piss me off, so I\'ll pass ---- feel free to post excerpts if you actually manage to find a point in that dumpster and want further comment.

as for breeding and the belmont distance, I think I pretty much went over that ground already.
in the past, I\'ve been about as big a fan of breeding as it gets, but it just doesn\'t hold up, and sheets do.
WE ran his TOP at 10f --- am I supposed to make a case that he\'s not suited to the belmont distance, while others are?
go through the derby field --- who is \'qualified\' to get the derby distance, and who isn\'t?
if breeding is so relevant, please address the example of Came Home that I cited earlier --- he was consensus pick to NOT get the distance.

like I said before, this whole \'back breaking marathon\' thing is a bogeyman propagated by a bunch of dudes who haven\'t got a clue what they\'re talking about, and who mix a little too much superstition w/much too little fact.

sure, if there was some contender who looked to have sprinty breeding, I\'d knock him for it --- but that\'s not the case here.

hey, if p.drift wins, I\'m sure everyone will jump up and down about his breeding, but if that were so relevant, why didn\'t he win the derby?
the fact is, he\'s had plenty of time off his top in the spiral, and if he runs back to that # a win wouldn\'t surprise me -- he\'s fast.

[HP]

Supe, whether or not Crist\'s diary is worth something is debatable, but you\'re calling him a \'moron\'? How many times have you hit the Pick 6? I\'m sure you\'ve made a lot more than him. Me too (not).

Now Christ\'s diary, that would be worth something. HP

[dpatent1]

Crist, not Christ.  Humorous slip, I guess.

[HP]

I have beseeched His Father on many occassions at the track to no avail. HP

[Anonymous User]

How is betting the Belmont any different than betting the Derby?  In the Derby horses are trying 10 marks for the first time in their lives.

You want even more thought provoking facts to contemplate? How many trainers have gotten a Storm Cat, a 49er, a Gulch and a Gone West to win at 12 marks? Say what you will of Goldophin, but I believe they are very sincere horsemen. I think they do everything in their power to treat the horse right. They almost revere them. When the Sheik lost Dubai Millenium to grass sickness he said the most poignant thing. I can\'t do justice by attempting to paraphrase and won\'t attempt to. Until they begin juicing their animals they have to be discounted here racing against the likes of Frankel, Lukas and Baffert.

[Michael D.]

Tabitha,

I think your point about the questionable breeding of some of the recent winners only proves that the third leg of the triple crown often comes up an empty race. The Tabasco Cat race was just awful (possibly the quickest Belmont strip ever, two or three track records set that day), the Editors Note race was very slow, the Thunder Gulch race was the second worse grade 1 race in history, and the Commendable race was the worst grade 1 race in history. When there is a fast horse with true distance breeding, the horses that can not handle the extra quarter are exposed. So the question becomes: will the 2002 Belmont be another crap race, where a Gone West or 49er (or Our Emblem) wins it in slow time, or is there another Easy Goer or AP Indy out there? (unless Perfect Drift or Like a Hero turn out to be something special, I think the answer is obvious)

[Phil Mandl]

What do you mean \"juicing their animals\"?  
There\'s no question that Godolphin provides the best of everything for their horses.  The question is if Essence is as good as the others he will be competing against on Saturday.  Tom Albertrani has already been quoted as saying that \"he (EOD)will be up against it\", and they are hoping for a faster pace and that the distance will help and that the horse \"seems\" more focused since the Derby. I will presuppose he is making an honest statement of his personal opinion about the horse chances.  
On a related side note it\'s refreshing to know the although the brothers (the sheiks) have the final say and will sometimes disagree with their trainers and jockeys people like Albertrani and Dettori can voice their opinions honestly and openly without fear of loosing their jobs for what they say. Another example is Frankie has always openly said Sakhee is better on grass than dirt.
Back to EOD, I can draw a line right thru EOD\'s BC effort last year, but I can\'t do the same with the poor Derby effort.  How much of a fast pace does this horse need to finish strong? IMO, At this point in his career and whatever the distance what EOD needs is softer competition to be competitive.