Edgar Prado

Anyone besides me think he\'s the best rider in NY these days?

[Michael D.]

you get back $1.30 for every two bucks you bet on edgar on turf. i think he is a very good jock (as evidenced by his ride in the 8th today), but he is overrated by the public. bailey is also a bit overrated, and may have lost a bit of his edge, but he is the best. in fact, he could be the second best athlete so far in this century (behind lance).

Michael,

How the public bets these jockeys is always a factor.  I don\'t keep close tabs on stats like that, but I probably should. I generally just try to get a feel for their ability so I can build it into my odds line a little (very very little). If the public winds up overbetting them, hopefully the short odds will keep me off the horse. I may be the last guy on earth to appreciate how well EP rides. He\'s aggressive enough when he\'s supposed to be, but not crazy.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Given three horses of equal talent with Bailey,Johhny V and Prado on each, Edgar will usually be third choice and thus will present value in such races, not the $1.30 Michael is speaking. The Smuggler race is a good example. Prado has been waiting and trying to get most of of his horses down the lane and seems to be getting better each year,(at least to me).

I agree with Michael D on Bailey, he seems to be at this best again lately, coming off a rather un Bailey like 2004. He always seems to be in the right place(except when I bet him). Does anyone know what Johnny V does on non Plethcer Stock? (Just Curious).

None the less no one can argue that the Saratoga Jockey Colony is not the best it\'s ever been in recent years. Dominguez,Coa,Prado,Bailey,Valasquez\'s(Cornelio and Johnny), and Migliore, (Bejerano would have been in the mix too).

[Michael D.]

Tony,
the numbers i mentioned are facts. keep an eye on the TG jock stats. it is unlikely you will make a big score based on a jocks ROI, but if you follow those #\'s over the course of six months or a year, you get a good sense of where the money is flowing, and exactly who is overrated or underrated. edgar just took too much money over the last six months, and his ROI fell. maybe it\'s time the  public backs off a bit, and the payoffs head back to old levels?

[NoCarolinaTony]

Yes but I think the $\'s are skewed to Races Prado ran for Dutrow in less than stellar fields. Yesterday\'s 8th race is more in line with my thinking. I don\'t bet jockey\'s anyway, I just eliminate the really bad ones.

NC Tony

[Michael D.]

i hope you had edgar at 11-1 today! i didn\'t. maybe the trend will start to change.

I didn\'t have him at 11-1, but I had him at 3-4 in the last.

[flushedstraight]

Certainly wasn\'t in Chicago on Sat.

Can\'t imagine Wonder Again didn\'t easily earn the lowest TG# in the Bev D. Obviously the outside post can be tricky but Edgar unnecessarily had her in very poor position. She\'s already proven she can close from further back if need be regardless of pace, so why sacrifice all the ground loss? Maybe she doesn\'t beat Angara in any case but he practically ensured it, and no excuse for that.

It was just one ride but not a good sign in such a big race, one Mike Smith is enough and we\'re already minus one Pat Day.

[Michael D.]

i wish edgar\'s ROI got a boost there in the 5th. i had him on the 18-1 pulpit horse, and he came flying for second. whether or not he offers value, prado is riding very well. the guy eating up a lot of money lately is johnny velazquez. not getting to the winner\'s circle much at all lately. i have to imagine that trend will change soon.

[Saddlecloth]

riders are the most overrated aspect in the game, give me the fastest horse and I can deal with the rider.  

I do think edgar is the best, but its realtive to getting the best stock.  JV, stock down with pletchers two year olds not being as good, does anyone really think he is riding different?  cmon.

[Saddlecloth]

check out the 9th at saratoga, jv just put on a clinic....hoping all bet against that frankel junk from europe.

[Saddlecloth]

and the other jock that was ripped in this thread just won another grade 1, can you guys rip some more riders so I can get the karma going for them  ( :