ROTW

[spa]

Looks to me as 2 tiers of two....Lava Man/Surf Cat with Super Frolic/Perfect Drift......

Does Lava Man repeat his last?

Does Perfect Drift return to his best form (he had a terrible trip in his last in a slow paced race and couldn\'t show his best there)?

IMO, neither is certain and after that it\'s a wide open affair.


Personally, I think the sprint earlier in the day is a very good race.

I\'m thinking Mcann\'s Mohave has a chance to turn the tables on Unfurl the Flag even though the latter probably deserves to be a slight favorite.

\"I\'m thinking Mcann\'s Mohave has a chance to turn the tables on Unfurl the Flag even though the latter probably deserves to be a slight favorite.\"

If I was any deader I\'d have to handicap in the dark and stay away from stakes!

If anyone wants me to kill any 3-5 shots let me know and I\'ll put $2 on it.  

[Michael D.]

perfect drift - long run to the first turn, and a lot of speed/stalker types involved. hoping guidry can work out a two wide trip around the furst turn. the negative \".5\" he ran in this race last year might not do it, but that was off a very tough race just two weeks earlier. hoping for a negative \"1\" or \"2\". key at 4-1 ml.

lava man - big jump last. looking for a bounce to the \"0\" or negative \"1\" lvl. contender, but low odds the issue.

surf cat - expecting something close to his last. distance might be an issue, as he was bearing out at the end of last. the :12.4 last eighth wasn\'t too bad though. the 8 lbs is big here. low odds the issue, but i think this guy will be close at the end.

PD on top, over LM and SC. i will use choctaw, borrego, and congrats underneath in the tri and super.

Lava Man doesn\'t look like the kind of horse that will hold this level of performance for very long. He got very good very fast and has never been the model of consistency to begin with.  Maybe he\'s got 1 more in him, but as a solid favorite, I think you have to try to beat him.

Perfect Drift is obviously a lot better than his last (that was a dreadful trip). Even though it\'s not clear he will fire his best shot or close, he looks like the only other solid Grade 1 horse in the race.

After that it\'s wide open:

I think Chocktaw Nation is a generally somewhat overrated horse.

I don\'t think Surf Cat beat anything in that last race (Dover Dere was dreadful in hs next start against 3rd string 3YOs). If he wins, it will be because he\'s lightly raced and moved forward. IMO, he hasn\'t been all that good so far.

Congrats is at his best going a little shorter.

Super Frolic has a few good figures against much much weaker, but moves into a hot barn and has been working like an improved horse. IMO, he will have to improve to contend.

Nothing shocking about Borrego runing a decent race, but I hated finishing 2nd to that hanger with my hanger (Perfect Drift)!  

[Michael D.]

perfect drift ran well. guidry did a great job from post 12, saving ground around the first turn, then closing four wide. i can\'t complain about the trip. when we see the #\'s though, we will see that PD ran four lengths faster than borrego. gomez just pulled off one of the greatest grade 1 rides i have ever seen. one path around the first turn, then one path around the second turn until he swung five wide as they turned for home. he lost very little ground.

[HP]

Class,

I have to give you credit.  This is a pretty good pre-race capsule.  I\'m sorry you didn\'t cash.  I wouldn\'t have put a plug nickel on Perfect Drift even though it looked like he fit...somewhere...with these.  HP