Wow, that was fast.

[TGJB]

You might have seen on the Ragozin board some mention of a lawsuit I brought in Federal court against some people I was doing business with-- amazing, since I didn\'t even know they had been served yet, and surprising they went public, since at least one of the individuals doesn\'t need any more bad publicity-- he\'s in the rebate business, and he\'s had his share.

Anyway, it will come as no shock that the ones I sued and/or the guys on the Ragozin site have completely misrepresented the suit. In simplest terms, what the suit says is this-- I was solicited to put together a handicapping venture, and did so, bringing some people in with the understanding I would get a share of the profits. The individuals involved proceeded with the venture, and don\'t want to pay me. I\'m suing to get paid.

Anyway, the posts on the Rag board mention a discussion about this on another board. If anyone knows where this is, I wouldn\'t mind knowing.

http://www.homebased2.com/forums/showthread.php?p=44283#post44283

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

Out of curiousity, what did the software do?  

[gatodelsol]

What strikes me is that there is a lot of talk about agreements, but not a single one attached as an Exhibit as is required by the court rules.  Most likely because its all verbal, making it that much harder to prove.  Setting aside the Statute of Frauds problem, you need to prove that price and term (i.e. length of agreement) were agreed on in order to establish a contract.  The latter could be a problem.  In the end, this is probably more about collecting for the data he gave them.  Hard to believe that with millions of dollars at stake, on one thought to reduce the agreements to writing, especially the rebate agreements.

[JohnTChance]

I\'ve often wondered why this is called \"ASK THE EXPERTS.\" Now I know.

JohnTChance

[TGJB]

Gato-- there is a fully detailed written contract with the rebate guys, took the better part of a year to get it done. With the TG betting team, there is an e-mail trail a mile wide, fully detailed. Since you sound like a lawyer, you might recognize the firm that is representing me (or can check them out)-- they also drew up the rebate contract. Other than those general comments, I don\'t want to fight this case here-- I\'ve tried very hard to get all involved to come to their senses, and have had to spend quite a bit of time and money on this. From here on out it\'s a court case.

Jimbo-- I didn\'t write that silly \"master class\" description, probably should have told them to pull it, but it will be read by a lay person (judge), and they wanted him to get it. In effect we were creating a super accurate line, by working out percentages for different numbers each horse might run-- what I was showing them how to do correctly was much more sophisticated than using Thoro-Patterns. Once we did that, we were running the race through a computer a few million times to get accurate winning percentages for each horse, then using those percentages along with the program the other guys had provided to compare our win and exotic prices with those available on the board. The computer has the ability to place the right bets, in the right increments, which it would take a human a long time to figure out.

NOTE-- that program is absolutely useless if the handicapping is not good. If your line is wrong, you will end up making really large bad bets, and lose your shirt. It\'s a program that lets you bet efficiently, not correctly.

TGJB,

Are they using the results of TG line making analysis to bet now or did they originally agree to use it and then move in another direction?

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

Interesting what the computer does.  The reason I asked is because in your action it mentions that at one point you agreed to finance the venture yourself, if you had access to the software.  I assumed that for you to go from not having to put up a dime, to fully financing the venture, based on access to the software, the software must have provided a lot of value.  

Computers in handicapping is an interesting toopic in general, but I find it particularly interesting because it is my field.  I have about 100 programmers that work for me (on financial software, not horse racing).  But I haven\'t thought of any system/program that would work without being able to handicap well.  What you described is not terribly complex, but I don\'t see tremendous value in it either, since you still need to accurately assess a horse\'s chance to win, which is the hardest part........

Second point, somewhat unrelated.  I was bored last night, so i read through the thread on the other board.  You really are the anti-christ over there.  Lots of venom spewed your way.  Interesting that Len remains \"above the fray\" and lets his pet dogs (or pigs?) do all of the attacking.

jimbo,

A very basic example of the value:

If a horse is 2-1 to win and you can wheel him in an exacta (betting each horse in a way that produces the same payoff amount) and get 2.2 - 1, that is a very good thing. Always betting a horse in the correct pool will make a dent in the take on its own. That goes a long way towards profitablity when there is also a rebate involved.

I\'ve been doing that kind of betting manually for about 20 years in the exactas and doubles. I used to walk around the track with a computer printout I created of all the odds combinations and the appropriate exotic payoffs. It\'s a big pain in the butt manually because prices change and some tickets are overlays relative to win odds and some are underlays. It can also become very messy to do those calculations in the last minute or so. Plus, the discrepancies are much smaller and rarer now than they were 20 years ago when I first started.    

I haven\'t seen the software, but I\'ve read about it. If it does the calculations real time covering all pools it has to give you an advantage from a betting perspective that puts a serious dent into the take with no handicapping at all. Throw in the rebate and all you need is a little bit of clue to go positive by a couple of pennies.


 


 

[jimbo66]

I understand the value Class, although I appreciate the example.  

What you described would take a week to build.  It isn\'t complex.  A few algorithms.  Then an interface into the \"probables\" pool would take a little time.

My point is that it isn\'t earth shattering stuff, still requires you to handicap well, and in IMHO wouldn\'t be worth putting up all the capital into a high risk gambling venture.  

I initially asked what the software did, because I was curious if they tried to program analysis algorithms into the computer, instead of just probability and calcuations.

[TGJB]

CH-- I\'m going to leave the rest of it for a judge.