SARATOGA SEMINAR

[high roller]

i was up at the recent saratoga meet and it seemed we were outnumbered by the sheet seminar sometimes they had 70-80 people and sometimes we had 10-20 people at carolina bbq, maybe we should wheel out our big guns like jerry?

[miff]

Johnathan Schwartz (RAGS) has a loyal following up in Saratoga for many years even though he is nothing more than a \"stabber\".Many horsemen, bettors have trouble with the \"pairing\" assembly line of TG,(I.E.races that are obviously not pairs that come up pairs on TG). The other big issue is the awarding of too many negative figures by TG to a point where a negative fig is commonplace and does not signify a \"special\" performance.

For the entire Saratoga meet a few sheet players(TG and Rags) are comparing the two products along with Brisnet and Beyers. So far, TG is faster on all comparative scales for figs in general and have many more pairs, especially against Rags and Beyer(after adjusting for weight and ground)

[TGJB]

Miff-- Damn right we have more pairs. Talk to anyone who makes serious figures about what that signifies. What matters when comparing sets of figures is how they do compared to results, and whether the theories and practices used to make them make sense.

Wood day (and all days)-- you know whether you got it right by how ALL the horses who come out of that race (and day, sometimes) run going forward, in FIGURE terms, not just one runaway winner with one isolated top that runs back once. Your expert variant makers probably can tell you that, if they know anything at all  about making variants. Do they use wind, by the way?

[congaree1]

I think the answer to your question is easy! Rags sells more product, because they provides more accurate numbers.

[miff]

TGJB,

These guys are big time variant computer geeks working for a very, very wealthy So Cal \"monster\" bettor. They use digital aneomometer\'s(sp) and measure pocket, head and tail winds at all points,feed it to a computer overlay program etc, etc in determining the variant. What do you use??


P.S. They told me recently that the posted track cushion(you inquired about it recently) is MEANINGLESS in their calculations.

[TGJB]

Miff-- Of course the posted cushion depth is meaningless in trying to FIGURE OUT how fast the track speed is-- you can only do that by looking at how fast the horses run over it. It certainly DOES matter in DETERMINING how fast the track is, but that\'s another question.

Interesting about the wind. They have guys at all those points measuring wind speed DURING every race? If so, at how many tracks? Or have NYRA and other tracks have let them set up something permanent?

As for the variant program, I\'d have to see what it\'s doing to know whether it\'s any good, and no, the results of one bettor wouldn\'t mean anything to me. I would need to see what it\'s trying to measure, and how.

[miff]

They will not say anything more than I\'ve posted.They do NOT have people posted all over the track and the little I know, I had to pry out of them over a few of lunches(I always pay). There are only two guys, Ian and Warren (two POMMES, George) and I don\'t know if they have been given an OK by Track management, so I prefer nothing is said. They are not doing anything wrong.

I know the So Cal Whale and I hear he\'s a loser with an overall small positive return from rebates.Staying on point,you can bet your eyeballs that no-one has a system/equipment as extensive as they do in making variants.


On your statement that the posted cushion certainly matters in determining how fast the track is, you are not even close. The geeks told me that on 5 consecutive race days at Belmont Park in July, the posted cushion was 4in. During those 5 days the speed of the track varied from plus 40 to plus 160( from 2 to 8 lengths faster than par/norm) despite the posted cushion being the same each day.They know all about wind, maintenance etc.

The conclusion from people with far more expertise on variants than you or any other figure maker is that a posted cushion of 4in produced wild fluctuations in how fast horses run over the same 4in posted cushion on different days(same caliber runners) probably due to wind, moisture, maintenance.They did not feel their sampling days were an abberation as to what is the norm.

[TGJB]

Miff-- I really like the part about those with far more expertise than me \"on variants\". You know that the same way you know horses are not getting faster-- you just KNOW it.

You need to read more carefully. Several things determine track speed. One of them is cushion depth. If you read my posts about changing track speeds carefully-- or looked carefully at the presentation in the archives-- you would know that there are endless combinations of variables that affect track speed. You can\'t use a formula for it, or measure it any better way than the way we do it. Which was also said by one of the scientists who have studied racing surfaces.

Again, I would love to know what those guys are doing. Can\'t show you what\'s wrong with it if I don\'t know what it is, and/or always interested in learning.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Variants are important, but assuming these guys are ultra variant oriented, they are still in the same ballpark as the rest of us when they try to identify a variant for the sole two turn race on a card. Its almost impossible. In that case you have to look at the sprint results and try to extrapolate and thats the problem.

I don\'t think anyone that maintains that deep cushions are a modern handicapping factor would deny that there is still wide variance with surface speed on  particular days (April 9th for instance) and that its generally moisture related.

Anyway, the handicapping ranks are severely culled. So many big horses have dropped recently. A good three year old is going to have a chance this year in the fall races. Who\'s left?

Rock Hard Ten (is he fast enough)
Commentator   (can he steal off far enough and slow it down sufficiently?)
St. Liam
Funny Cide    (does he even want to run any longer?)
Perfect Dread
Limehouse
Pollard\'s Vision
Suave


looks like St. Liam is the horse to beat, maybe Perfect Dread can clunk up for second and with a little luck who knows?

[miff]

TGJB,


I am fairly confident that I know and understand all facets of \"racing\" as well as you if not better(not figure making).Your horses are getting faster theory should earn you an Honorary Diploma from the University of the World Is Flat.


I mentioned to several knowledgeable racing people that you stated that Smarty Jones would have beaten Secretariat by quite a bit(your words)They laughed and asked if you did stand-up comedy on the side.

[TGJB]

Excellent example with the world being flat. Kinda have it backward, though-- think about it.

[miff]

Don\'t know what you are thinking about. They believe the world is flat and you believe horses are getting faster, equally far fetched.

[TGJB]

Yep, equally far fetched. And both have equal logic and science behind them.

[kev]

You say:  \"you stated that Smarty Jones would have beaten Secretariat by quite a bit\" Well how do you know that he wouldn\'t have?? Just because he was the great SEC. and no one would have ever beat him in this era??

[miff]

Kev,

Maybe Ghost Zapper on his best day, but Smarty Jones is a joke.