ROTW

[spa]

United ...why do I love you? Could it be you\'re 2 for 2 at the track or have a clear pattern of improvment going turf to dirt. How about with your trainer/jock combine for 43% win and 79% in the money. Maybe blinkers on, help by 50%. Your trainer\'s win percent is almost 100% better at this track. Your sire is better dirt than turf. You\'re on the inside in a huge field and the favorites are way outside. You\'re graded stakes placed. You\'ll have the lead and the rail. Best of all because, you\'ll be 20-1. Some days you get the bear and today is one of them.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

First off Philadelphia Park Day TWO

You couldn\'t ask for a more fair track on Day Two. It also showed it will give up some faster times if the horses are of better quality.

Penn Derby

Yeah, its an interesting race. United is definitely a horse to scrutinize. I\'d have more conviction if those better numbers were two turn numbers. Theres a quarter mile between where he\'s been and where he\'s going. Additionally, those two nice dirt figures were restricted class races. Still a 1:22 indicates some ability and the weight off is significant. They paid 150K for him. He\'s not a bad looking horse. The speculative parts involve the distance and mojo. If he is getting dosed in Philly the symptom is speed that keeps going. Is that how Love of Money won last year?

Sun King\'s preferred style is lead on the rail. If you peruse his past performances you\'ll see he fairs best in that scenario. Unless he puts a clearing burst on them hes not gonna get the trip he prefers. Its a long run to the first turn, but they will be protecting position inside of him. What if Sun King bobbles on the break? Then what?

There are some live horses in this race. Any horse that has run a 2 has to be considered.

The Sensational Six:

Quadrant
United (hasnt run a 2)
Anthony J (Been right there in 3 big money stakes, carries 114)
Smokescreen (Close, giving him credit for 2\'s due to trouble)
Tani Maru  (has to carry 119)
Golden Rainbow

Its possible Sun King, Real Dandy and South Africa could make up the Trifecta. Its also possible that the above horses could fill out at least 2 of the slots.

Southern Africa is working with bad intentions. But they haven\'t faired well on this type of layoff. Still, those works are eye opening and suspect he\'s gonna give a good account of himself, even if not down to the zed level.

I\'m gonna be on one of the sensational six. I\'m just not sure which yet...lol

If I don\'t post it pre off time I promise not to bring it up.

[richiebee]

CTC:

Thank god you\'re not betting Euro races, where they regularly have 20 horse fields.

Your \"sensational six\" would be expanded to a \"terrific twelve\".

Any TV coverage of this race?

[HP]

Tribox Quadrant, Anthony J, Smokescreen and Golden Rainbow.

Exbox Quadrant, Ant J and Smokescreen; and Quadrant, Smokescreen and GRainbow.

Good luck to all!

HP

[Michael D.]

network - dam a full to concern - will get 9f. decent pattern. last was a bit slow, but it was 1m on turf. looking for a move through the \"4\" lvl. maybe a \"2\"? key at 8-1 ml.

quadrant - makes sense from post 1 at 114 lbs. looking for a run in the \"3\" range, which puts him right there.

anthony j - long odds, nice post, 114 lbs, fast # last - stab underneath.

smokescreen - same a AJ. contender with good trip.

real dandy - looking for a \"2\", which will get bigger with ground loss. 122 lbs. second best horse, but faces tough going here.

sun king - the best, but he will have to be used from post whatever he has. with the pressure, i am expecting a run in the \"1\" to \"2\" range, which might not be enough with the ground and weight.

........... network over the others for me. good luck!!

 

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> network - dam a full to concern - will get 9f.
> decent pattern. last was a bit slow, but it was 1m
> on turf. looking for a move through the \"4\" lvl.
> maybe a \"2\"? key at 8-1 ml.

Don\'t forget the part where Mott got him claimed. On TFigs you can\'t see that detail.

 
> quadrant - makes sense from post 1 at 114 lbs.
> looking for a run in the \"3\" range, which puts him
> right there.
>
> anthony j - long odds, nice post, 114 lbs, fast #
> last - stab underneath.
>
> smokescreen - same a AJ. contender with good
> trip.
>
> real dandy - looking for a \"2\", which will get
> bigger with ground loss. 122 lbs. second best
> horse, but faces tough going here.
>
> sun king - the best, but he will have to be used
> from post whatever he has. with the pressure, i am
> expecting a run in the \"1\" to \"2\" range, which
> might not be enough with the ground and weight.
>
> ........... network over the others for me. good
> luck!!
>
>

Funny Parody of Robespierre in the handicapping section at the Ragboard

[ronwar]

Im willing to forgive Southern Africa\'s last two and expect him to get a nice tracking trip.  I figure him to be rolling 3-4w turning for home and a return to the \'0\' range. At 8 to 10-1 I\'ll dig into my shoe and play him to win

As much as I would like to toss Sun King, Just can\'t do it here.  I believe those 3 poor starts where a attempt to change his style.  He obviouly likes to get involved right away.  I\'ll play him underneath with Quadrant/Network/Tani Maru in the tri.

Good Luck!

[kev]

SA will be bet down to about 4-1

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'m still looking at the race...lol

The thing is Sun King is giving 3 lengths on weight to some of these horses and may give two more on wide. Thats a lot of lengths. If he runs his Zed from there some of these that work out a trip need only run a 2.2 Thats a significant scenario.

I\'m starting to think the wide could be potentially worse for Sun King than that. Letterman\'s Humor for example. Last time Sun King easily distanced him but there wasn\'t as much pressure being outside and in the five hole. This time Letterman is in the 12 hole and can clear a lot of horses inside of himself by holding his position. That last race indicates hes got some speed if he chooses to use it and though Black is a good gate boy so is Castillo. I\'m not sure Sun King is gonna be able to clear Letterman by the turn and if he doesnt clear him, there may be about three additional ones he can\'t clear either.

The reverse scenario is he runs so hard to clear them the horse gets engaged way too early and has nothing left for the lane.

My problem is as ripe as I think Sun King is, I\'m not sure which horse is the one to beat him....lol