Maybe I should clarify what I consider a speed bias to be.
Obviously this is all subjective stuff that\'s probably going to piss Jerry off, but I hope he\'ll let it slide.
On most tracks speed is an advantage every day because you save ground, avoid trouble, already have position etc... That\'s not the kind of bias I am referring to.
When I am referring to a speed bias I mean that given two contenders that I would normally make \"dead even on that track on the typical day\", if I think the track will give the speed horse a bigger advantage than usual, that\'s a bias I would rate an S. I consider that kind of track to be like a biased roulette wheel. It\'s not dictating results, but it\'s a little extra in the favor of speed relative to what\'s normal on that track.
On a track like that, closers can and will win if they are superior, but a horse that has a little trouble getting 7F might find the wire. A pace duel that would normally cost the favorite the win, might get home anyway. A loose speed horse migth run an unexpected new top.
An S+ is much rarer. That\'s a day when the results seem to be dictated by running styles as opposed to modestly influenced by the running styles \"relative to normal for the track\". That happens sometimes on wet tracks and other rare occaisions.
None of my subjective views are based on wire to wire winner percentages or average position of the winner etc... They are based on how I rated the horses coming into the day and how they seemed to be running relative to those opinions. If there\'s a preponderance of evidence suggesting that a track \"might\" be biased, I make a note of it and adjust those performance up/down very slightly as evidence comes in.
Regardless of whether you agree or not, I thought the day of Whitney \"might be slightly tilted toward speed\". Please, let\'s not debate that part. So when I look at Commentator, I see a horse that cut a pretty fast pace. Yet he still held off St Liam. who I think is an excellent horse. Normally, I would think he ran a terrific race after setting that pace despite being loose. However, I think he was able to cut those fast fraction and get away with it because the track was somewhat kind to speed that day. Essentially the track bias offset the pace. So I expect the weight shift to more than compensate. If Belmont is playing honest and the rabbits force a similar pace out of Commentator, I expect St. Liam to beat Commentator by more than the weight shift suggests.
If I am wrong, it won\'t be the first time.
OK jerry, you can put away the barf bag.
