Theories abound

[bdhsheets]

I can picture Chuckles in his cage jumping up and down screaching like some primate \"See, see Companyhater!!! Companyhater!!! ooh haa haaa AAAAAAHHHHH COMPANYHATER!!!!!\"

Commentator wasn\'t winning anything Saturday. His inability to shake the cheap speed was an indicator of:: ? that he needed more time off; there\'s an injury brewing and the horse is protecting himself; his days of running -5\'s are over; poor judgement by Zito/Stevens; Companyhater, all of the above; none of the above---whatever.

Truth is, we don\'t see these \"super figs\" too often, especially amongst routers. How to treat them is a tad bit of a mystery, especially when they pair up. Often only one is needed to spell short term doom/injury. [See the Derby Mag 4---btw: super fig levels change with age] Likely the two huge figs off the layoff doomed Commentator before he began.

For all his faults, Bobby Frankel has a better grasp for spacing than virtually everyone else amongst the super trainers and I\'ll predict he\'ll have a super BC day, with many of his runners coming in reasonably fresh. More later, its freakin 4am....

[jimbo66]

Bdsheets,

I guess since it was 4 am when you wrote this, it should be taken with a grain of salt.  

Who knows what happened to Commentator, maybe just a good old fashioned bounce.  The fact is that what Dutrow did was abysmal as Beyerguy mentioned.  Not entering the rabbits, but the way he used the second rabbit to stay outside commentator and try to box him in and intimidate him.  Poor sportsmanship from one of the pondscum guys in the game.  He and Mullins ought to form their own game.

The grain of salt comment is about your Frankel prediction.  Not sure if you have seen any of the last 15 to 20 Breeders Cups, but Bobby Frankel is arguably the WORST Breeders Cup trainer in the history of the Breeders Cup.  As far as number of starters, chances to win and positive results.  Maybe this is the year.  But maybe this is the year that the Cubs win the World Series also.  

jimbo,

>Who knows what happened to Commentator, maybe just a good old fashioned bounce.<

No one knows.

All you can do is pay very close attention to one dimensional speed horses that put up huge figures when they get loose leads in easy paces and/or on biased racetracks and see how they perform under more stressful circumstances. Then compare that group to another group that earned similarly fast figures but under more legitmate circumstance. Then see which group performed better when they came back.

I think you will find legitimate bouncers in both groups, but I think you\'ll find a lot more disappointments in the former group that just get lumped in with the bouncers when other factors were really at work.