Matron & Atto Mile

[TGJB]

CH-- if I took the bait on that and used it as an excuse to start listing my credits I really would be into myself.

Do some homework.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Theres a certain amount of acumen that goes into buying a horse, but obviously on the results the edge even the best \"experts\" obtain is very slim indeed. Its more a matter of who loses less and thats a very unsatisfying way of measuring success. Lucky for the agents in these sales the buyers are prepared to lose money. The owner of Flower Alley picked his horse because the dam\'s name is Olivia and thats his daughters name. He should fire his bloodstock agents.

Since buying will always be a crapshoot regardless to whether you\'re Parcells or Gibbs it makes sense to craft a strategy for the purchase. Barry Irwin seems to be going overseas quite a bit and that appears very sound for a number of reasons. Tgraph approaches it from a small and developing race sample purchasing perspective. The difference probably being that pedigree is going to be less important in the one method and that has its pros and cons.

Both techniques are going to show better results than the bidding wars at Keeneland, guaranteed. Still in this area have to figure Class is almost as competent as many others in the field, especially if he can eyeball a horse and knows a bit about pedigree.


 classhandicapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TGJB,
>
> Comparing yourself to Parcells and Gibbs is pretty
> comical coming from a guy who accuses me of being
> into myself.
>
> The intention of the post was to offer an opinion
> on the subject of buying horses and to get
> feedback. I don\'t recall having a problem
> discussing things like that with Barry when I
> bought one through him a few years back. Opinions
> are only a problem on this board when then are
> mine and/or conflict with yours.
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 09/22/05 04:09PM by
> classhandicapper.

CTC,

I don\'t think it\'s a total crapshoot if you make enough purchases over time to offset the luck factor - even though I agree that the expectation is highly negative to start with. Over time, the \"value\" of your purchases will be reflected in your results.

The real point is that it\'s not necessary to be able to pick the horses yourself or to have owned any in the past to recognize if the person you are working with is using a method or strategy that could lead to superior results.

The second point is that I could assemble 20 guys from my local OTB that haven\'t shaved in 6 days, own 1 pair of pants, and have worn the same shirt for the last 6 days that could put togther a portfolio of stakes horses if they had someone with deep enough pockets to back them. If you can read the DRF well and you buy a bunch of high quality horses, some of them are going to do great things even if you bring no value to the table.  

[TGJB]

CH-- the best thing is not that you have no idea what you are talking about, but that you have no idea that you have no idea, don\'t feel compelled to make any inquiries to find out, and would rather gaze at your belly button. You have absolutely no clue when it comes to talking about this stuff-- take it from a guy who has had more horses win stakes, and won more stakes, than most who are in the Hall of Fame. And done it with far fewer horses.

Yeah, all you have to do is ask some guys who they like, and throw money at it. Easy game.

FYI-- there have been two maiden winners sold for $2 million each this year so far. Unless you are dealing with someone totally financially irresponsible-- I\'m not, none of my clients have ever been, and very few outside the auction nuttiness are-- it\'s very, very difficult to get a good horse bought, especially once they are discernable to the general public, and you and your buddies at OTB. If you were asking questions instead of shooting off your mouth about stuff you are less knowledgable about than probably 50-100 people who read this board, many of whom post here, you might know that.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> FYI-- there have been two maiden winners sold for
> $2 million each this year so far.

The above is very interesting. Are you saying you\'ve departed from your \"race under the belt\" technique and are advising on unraced purchases?

Could you inform the board regarding the names of these 2 million dollar purchases. I\'m sure others are curious besides myself.

[TGJB]

I didn\'t advise on the purchases, and they weren\'t unraced, they were coming off maiden wins. I think one was India and the other Discreet Cat, last week, if I have the names right.

The only seven figure buy I was ever involved in was a filly by the name of Pompeii, who won a GI at Saratoga four days later, getting my client out in one start. Given today\'s market, that will end up changing.

TGJB,

It\'s hard to have a conversation with someone that is so biased against me that he almost never understands the point I am making.

The point was not that some bozos at OTB could make money at this game buying horses. If they did buy horses, they would get buried. That much is obvious. However, any bozo that can read the DRF can select some high quality horses. If they did, some of them would go on to accomplish great things despite the fact that they brought no value to the table at all in the selection process. That gets proven all the time when they let monkeys select stocks. Some of the stocks do great.

You can\'t measure overall success by pointing to a few individual successes. You measure the success of an operation by looking at the bottom line over a very long period of time and a lot of selections.

I\'d be happy to hear your views on how to find value in the horseracing business these days, but I wouldn\'t be impressed by something that is primarily geared towards speed figures. I am constantly seeing private purchases of horses that just ran fast (Discreet Cat is the latest example). That\'s telling me that lots of people are using speed figures as a primary criteria. So I suspect there is little value there. I also think there\'s more to measuring ability than just how fast a horse ran.

You\'ve made a lot of comments about management that made a lot of sense to me. I think it\'s pretty obvious you bring a lot of value to the table in that area. So if you please, why don\'t you explain to me where the value is in the selection process.

[TGJB]

That\'s the first glimmer of understanding you have shown, and I have understood completely what you have said all the way-- you have had no idea what I was saying because until now you didn\'t ask questions.

Just for starters-- until a couple of months ago we had posted in the horsemen\'s section of this site a 5 year study that showed ALL the horses bought on our advice over that time period, what was paid for them, what they earned, and what they were sold/syndicated/disposed of for. That\'s the study I was referring to with Barry-- which you could have asked about, my mention was in the post that IMMEDIATELY PRECEDED YOUR FIRST ON THIS SUBJECT. But, noooo.....

We took the study down because it was dated, and didn\'t continue it because it took a tremendous amount of work (mine) to compile it. Results since then were not as phenomenal (again, 13 of 23 for Prestonwood won stakes, at an average cost of 125k-- also in that post), but better than most  in this business.

You have absolutely no idea what\'s involved in \"using speed figures\" the way I do, or how it is similar (or not) to the way others use them (or don\'t). You have no idea what\'s involved in figuring out the level of ability of foreign horses, and whether their form will translate, how long it will take them to acclimate, what effects lasix will have, how much it will cost to ship them, etc.-- this is something Barry knows a lot about, he\'s a pro.

I\'m not going to start giving classes on what I do here-- it took me my entire adult life to learn my craft, and I\'m probably the best at buying horses in training that ever lived, certainly the best that\'s out there now in terms of return on the dollar, over a large sampling. I\'ve also done it without a \"move-up trainer. The game is tough enough, I\'m not going to create my own competition-- lots of people can bet on a horse, but only one can buy it, and lots of people will pay a lot crazier amounts for them than I will advise my clients to.

But here\'s what you can do. When we mention one that is ours in ROTW or elsewhere, ask what I liked about it that made us buy it. I\'ll tell you.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Thanks

Discreet Cat was a Godolphin purchase. 2 big bills was cheap for them. They\'ve done it before. Street Cry, A Mabee horse I forget, theres been others.

That Matron with India out was very close to a real nice race for me. Not sure what will happen from here in. Tend to think a real good one doesn\'t toss it in like that.

Not sure Pompeii was an in the black filly if she cost a million. She died carrying her first foal per this story. She had a pretty bloodline.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/pompeii



TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I didn\'t advise on the purchases, and they weren\'t
> unraced, they were coming off maiden wins. I think
> one was India and the other Discreet Cat, last
> week, if I have the names right.
>
> The only seven figure buy I was ever involved in
> was a filly by the name of Pompeii, who won a GI
> at Saratoga four days later, getting my client out
> in one start. Given today\'s market, that will end
> up changing.

TGJB,

Fair enough.

\"You have no idea what\'s involved in figuring out the level of ability of foreign horses, and whether their form will translate, how long it will take them to acclimate, what effects lasix will have, how much it will cost to ship them, etc.-- this is something Barry knows a lot about, he\'s a pro.\"

On this pont, I think I was clear that in order to implement some of the ideas I find interesting, one would have to know these sorts of things. (operating costs, purses, the physical condition of the horse etc... ) Someone else has to come to the table with that expertise.

Personally, I think I can judge ability better than most people that buy and sell horses. If I didn\'t think that, I wouldn\'t consider buying a horse unless I had total faith in someone else.

I\'ll ask my first question.

I don\'t know how much the buyer paid for Super Frolic and I don\'t expect you to tell me. I do recall the logic though. If I understood you correctly, you were looking for a horse that could compete in the CA stakes for older horses where the group seemed very weak for the class. That\'s the part that impressed me about the management skills because there was a logical and clear cut way to see where the excess value \"could be\".

On the flip side, I didn\'t think the horse was going to be very competitive out there despite figures that seemed to stack up OK. It\'s a point of disagreement on measuring ability we probably aren\'t going to get beyond.

On the flip side again, I think running him in the Hawthorn Gold Cup is brilliant. It\'s a 750K Grade II race being contested by a bunch of slow Grade 3 and listed stakes horses (other than Perfect Drift who is aiming for the BC). I make you the clear cut 2nd choice in that race and with PD you never know when he\'s going to disappoint.    

So you can see why I like the management skills.

Why did you pick that horse?


 

[TGJB]

The price was 270. There were a lot of things I liked about this horse, I\'ve been chasing him for 2 years while being told he couldn\'t be bought, and raised the roof with a certain bloodstock agent when someone else ended up buying him. I sent him in again a couple of races later when he failed to win in two stake tries at Delaware, and the new owners were willing to take what they paid for him.

The sheet will be up in ROTW in a little while. I liked the good numbers at two, and the development since then-- he did enough at two (like win a stake) to help him as a stallion if enough happens, but he\'s also developed nicely since then, especially at 4, which makes me think he\'s not going to deteriorate quickly if he stays in one piece.

I liked the figures, and I liked the PERCENTAGE of good figures, and to a degree I liked the overall (as opposed to short term) pattern-- it was not perfect, but it was good enough, and you can\'t have everything. If he had been running those figures on a major circuit he would have cost twice as much-- in California, more than that.

He doesn\'t have a huge pedigree, and Pine Bluff is no help commercially, but the dam side is pretty good (even better if you look at figures, not black type), and there is enough there to let him stand somewhere, for something, if he does some good.

And yes, the division in California is weak-- and not so tough everywhere else. The fact that this horse had not ACCOMPLISHED much was a plus-- not only did it keep his price down, but it kept the weight he would carry in handicaps down.

Finally, this-- all figures are not created equal. When we bought Victory Gallop someone in Ragozin\'s office told Elliot Walden we were \"out of our ----- minds\". Accuracy aside, I keep tight control over our data-- unlike Ragozin, we don\'t let people just buy a sheet for any horse for $25, like one that is for sale. The idea is to keep value high for our clients by not having them compete with everyone in the world for the good ones. The good news is our record because of that, the bad news is that Friedman gets to claim they have all these \"clients\".

Thanks. Great summary.

TGJB,

The one thing that I find a bit perplexing is valuing the horse after it\'s racing career is over. No matter what is accomplished, that is in part  dependent on the market conditions at the time. Yet there is no real intrinsic value that can be measured. Right now, I would guess the price/values are preposterous and that\'s why everyone that has accomplished anything is retired immediately to cash in. But if you pay up a little now based on the assumption of a market similar to what exists now, you could get burned badly even if the horse does well on the track. Bubbles eventually burst.  

I think I\'d rather buy in a generally depressed market on the assumption of a continuation of that depressed market and then be pleasantly surprised if I get more on the back end than I hoped for because conditions changed for the better.

It almost has to be a mistake to say \"I want to buy horses\" and then just cope with whatever the conditions are.  Too often you are going to overpay even if you have a few insights in to where some \"relative\" value might exist.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Pine Bluff may not have burnt up the breeding shed, but hes far from a bust. He\'s gotten some good ones and has a solid pedigree. FuPeg picked some of it up on his backside and in my opinion thats why he was able to stay on some.

You\'re trying 10 marks again. There looks to be reason for confidence there. Theres good reason to believe he is very well placed. Good luck in the Gold Cup.

Think I see one of the strong points. That mare is was one of the better fillies I\'ve seen race. I cashed on her on numerous occasions. Shes been a heck of a producer also and that could bode well for that horse.

[marcus]

That\'s a real nice horse and he looks spotted very well for saturday . I don\'t see Super Frolic losing that race . Sure Perfect Drift\'s got a couple back numbers but they are pretty remote by now and present form of PD leaves much to be desired . If Super Frolic is 3-1 this wknd he\'s a  Super Value for bettors and  for 270 , a big time Super Value overall for his connections  . Win or lose though , this race sat must be viewed as a prep for the BC . Keep up the excellent work  Jerry & Everybody over at TG  ...