Matron & Atto Mile

[RICH]

If he runs a new top tomorrow, he most likely bounces on BC day, as his sheet pattern suggests. However, a zero or 1 may set him up better. I like him on Sat. Good Luck

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The thing thats notable about Super Frolic is that the horse looks to be a genuine tryer. The truly poor races involve switches to turf.

He may not care for off tracks either, but that sample is a little small to say  with certainty.

Other than turf and off tracks, hes run remarkably consistent races and when he bounces, he doesnt bounce much at all. His usual \"off\" races are within a point or two with a couple that just make the 2 point \"bounce\" threshold.

You can see several lengths good for him off that last race in weight and likely trip. Its also quite possible this horse wants 10 marks and until the Pacific Classic he was not given a chance at it. A less sapping pace and the past performances lean positively for this horse to win this race.

Don\'t want to jinx him, but that last effort was in his best company ever and he ran hard and never gave up. Tgraph feels horses tend to run the same race when the figure is consistent, but a hard effort in the best company ever faced certainly could have this horse sitting upon fatigue issues. (In other words a buried good race and the off race is the next one to come) In opposition to that, he has a couple solid works since and his p.p.s dont show two straight dirt regressions. The horse tends to snap back X-O if you will.

The other issue is Perfect Dread of course. If he gets a clean trip, hes certainly run fast enough recently to be extremely tough here. He gets a couple lbs off and he likes it here.

CTC,

\"The other issue is Perfect Dread of course. If he gets a clean trip, hes certainly run fast enough recently to be extremely tough here. He gets a couple lbs off and he likes it here.\"

Perfect Drift \"has had\" some difficulty finding the winners circle even when he\'s been spotted properly or was in the perfect position to close down a tired front runner. Heck even Borrego got by him. Plus, last year he ran a somewhat sub par race in his BC \"prep\". I would not be shocked if that happens again tomorrow. He may be the deserving favorite tomorrow because he does seem to be rounding into his best form and he has put up consistently good figures against some of the very best horses of the last few years, but IMO he\'s almost certainly going to be overbet. The key question is how do you construct a bet because I think it\'s unlikely for him to fire a complete dud in this field.          

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'ve always believed Borrego was more horse than most. He hit the doldrums after the Ark, but Lava Man is a tough cookie and I think Borrego finally came around in the Classic. Granted pace helped.

Theres obviously no Borrego, Lava Man or Choctaw Nation in this race. (You could have caught them all at the finish line at Delmar with a small net)

Theres no St. Liam, Roses in May or Ghostzapper either, so Prefect Dread is well spotted. He was compromised in his large defeats by some of those others even if the problems didn\'t prevent him from winning.

Don\'t mean to imply he can\'t be beaten. Its a four horse race.

classhandicapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CTC,
>
> \"The other issue is Perfect Dread of course. If he
> gets a clean trip, hes certainly run fast enough
> recently to be extremely tough here. He gets a
> couple lbs off and he likes it here.\"
>
> Perfect Drift \"has had\" some difficulty finding
> the winners circle even when he\'s been spotted
> properly or was in the perfect position to close
> down a tired front runner. Heck even Borrego got
> by him. Plus, last year he ran a somewhat sub par
> race in his BC \"prep\". I would not be shocked if
> that happens again tomorrow. He may be the
> deserving favorite tomorrow because he does seem
> to be rounding into his best form and he has put
> up consistently good figures against some of the
> very best horses of the last few years, but IMO
> he\'s almost certainly going to be overbet. The key
> question is how do you construct a bet because I
> think it\'s unlikely for him to fire a complete dud
> in this field.          
>
>
>