dumb weighters ny post page3

[TGJB]

Miff-- using a mile in 1:40 (a hundred seconds) to make it easy, 2% would be two seconds, or 8 points at that distance. Which is more than we are saying they have developed-- you need to read \"Are Racehorses Getting Faster\" again.

Or, you can tell me again that you can tell I\'m wrong just by looking at them, or that it is a matter of opinion, and everyone\'s is worth the same. Like two guys in a bar arguing about Mantle, Mays and Snider.

[HP]

Miff,

I wouldn\'t be so quick to call anybody else\'s opinion \"embarassing.\"  You just wrote a \"no betting coups\" post as if you speak to EVERY SINGLE PERSON who bets at a NYRA track.  Maybe Eliot Spitzer should talk to you, since you know everything about every single bet worldwide made on NYRA racing.

HP

[HP]

Miff,

Our posts crossed

You wrote,

\"from what was said around the track, no one made a betting coup.\"

This is not what you\'re saying now...

HP

[MO]

Miff,

If you have ever been in any jocks room you will know that its just like the police department. Code of silence is the golden rule. And there are lots of valets with gambling problems, the least of which being a runner for the jocks with gambling problems.

[bdhsheets]

Isn\'t the mantra here: 5#\'s = 1 length? If the horse is toting an extra 10 lbs that\'s a huge advantage, especially for those that can\'t handle an ounce over 118 etc.

Betting coups? You betcha!

[miff]

HP,

I do not know you, but I would bet that YOU know more about what goes on at NYRA tracks, day to day, than Elliot Spitzer.

[miff]

TGJB,

Seriously, if you ever decide to go into politics, let me know. Your ability to not answer or \"change leads\" in mid stream seem to be a talent of yours.

A mile in 1:40 is not relevant to our debate. A mile in 1:34 would be. So you conclude that because tracks are slower today(your opinion, again) horses today are really running adjusted 1:32 miles if they ran on the same surfaces of 20 years ago.Not even close!!

[HP]

The more people say bad things about Elliot Spitzer the more I like him.  

[TGJB]

Miff-- the difference between 1:34 and 1:40 (which I used for convenience sake) is 6%, which means the difference would be 6% of 2%. In other words, the comparable difference (2%) at 1:34 would be 1.88 seconds, if I did my math right, or about 7 1/2 points.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

This is a troubling story. The assistant clerk of scales is Braulio Baeza. He was one of the finest jockeys to ever sit in the saddle. Some say the finest. Has anyone ever heard a word about him being shady in the past?

Before there is general speculation that Baeza or the Jocks passed on the inside knowledge of the overweights to effect \"Betting Coups\", lets at least require that the Media Attention starved Attorney General Eliot Spitzer at least ALLEGE in his indictment the Passing of such information for betting purposes. Heres the story, the indictment is apparently 195 pages long, but I see no indication in this story an allegation of Betting Coup:

http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=30105

Baeza was a tall man for a jockey and his career was cut short due to weight issues. He battled weight for a good part of his abbreviated career. IF Baeza allowed jockeys to run overweight, its certainly possible he did so out of empathy for their plight.

What if there is not even an allegation that Baeza received a kickback from the jocks for this favor? What if no proof exists that Baeza received anything from  allowing jocks to run a little heavy? What if the heaviest it can said they ran was within the 5 pound State threshold?

It doesnt make it right. If it occurred it was a deceit upon the public. NYRA turned over what evidence they had to the State to begin the investigation. But ask yourself this. What jockey would get a four or five pound pass at the scales and turn around and make that knowledge public? Thats what some are speculating. That a clandestine arrangement to shave a few non sweatbox pounds was revealed to larger numbers for the wildly successful \"4 pound Betting Coup\".

[miff]

TGJB,

I think your math is ok. To end this, I\'ll acknowledge your horses are faster theory when it consistently happens on the track.It\'s strange that with the exception of a few modern day performances we have not seen:

6f in 1:06

7f in 1:19

8f in 1:31 etc, etc.


Surely, we have seen some glib surfaces in the past few years and I wonder how you defend your theory without us seeing many, many raw times as shown above. We also have the fastest horses in each category lined up and pointed to the Breeders Cup, which did not exist back when.Still, no consistently monster performances.Your theory does not reconcile.

[MO]

CTC said:

Baeza was a tall man for a jockey and his career was cut short due to weight issues. He battled weight for a good part of his abbreviated career. IF Baeza allowed jockeys to run overweight, its certainly possible he did so out of empathy for their plight.

I know BB. He taught me everything I know about race riding when I was dating his (then) stable rider back in 1988. He ran rings around Shoemaker when Bill was in his prime. BB rode horse of the year 5 years in a row, when Bill was in his prime. BB was indeed the best. And the above comment by CTC is probably accurate. BB was always aware of the perception people had on racing and was always very careful to teach his students the right way of doing things, like keeping your mouth shut, riding your horse out past the finish line, keep your weight in check, don\'t use the whip unless needed, save ground, don\'t make a move on the turn with a sore horse, etc. He was as good a teacher as he was a rider. I asked him a few years back why he wasn\'t the COS and Mario HIS assistant. He said he didn\'t want the job. I knew right then why. I won\'t tell but to say that there\'s a lot more to this story than meets the eye. And there\'s a very good chance he\'s only guilty by association here in this case.

 As for the 5 riders accused of conspiracy here, one speaks no English, and 2 others are known cheaters. And all five would rather rat on BB than take the fall themselves. Its the nature of the game.

http://www.brauliobaeza.com

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff,

its pretty clear, at least to me, the modern american racehorse is a very brittle animal. they\'ve always been brittle, but now its a new level of snap, crackle, pop.

everyone in the industry knows this and theres been mass breakdowns on various tracks that developed issues. Developing safer tracks is clearly a big issue in the industry and it seems apparent theres been a consensus that deeper cushion makes for safer racing. Obviously theres a lot of factors in that.

You can read about the cushion depths at several track sites. I\'ve done so, though haven\'t made a study of it. The salient question to me would be despite a deeper cushion can a modern track be as fast or faster than historically shallower cushion tracks? Factor in recoil and compaction and I\'m not certain about that. Also factor in the changing substance makeup of the cushion and base and its a question with a lot of variables.

TGraph says the horses are faster and I tend to believe them. In the end though it doesnt matter. All that matters is that the figures for the current crop adequately reflect the difference in ability for the horses you\'re gonna bet upon...or buy...lol

[TGJB]

Miff-- I am so tired of going over this again and again. Read the damn article, I cover all of this, and I explain how I came up with the conclusions. One of the problems here is that when we do get a fast time, you say the track is lightning-- not recognizing that it is only fast compared to the even SLOWER, deeper tracks on other days.

What I do all the time, and have done now for many tracks, for 23 years, is deal with exactly this question-- how fast are tracks, and how fast are horses. Is it to some degree subjective? Yes, there is judgement involved. Is it simply \" a matter of opinion\"? No-- I\'ve looked at a lot of data to make those decisions, even before researching (note-- RESEARCHING) that article. Is the difference-- less than 2% over 23 years-- something you can address by looking at the horses, or just by having an \"opinion\"? Please.

Tracks are being made slower with the intent of making them safer-- since I wrote that piece, quoting Porcelli saying cushion depth in NY is 3 1/2 inches, you and others have told me they have gone to 4 inches. Despite that, we do get some really fast times-- especially on grass, where they do less (but some) to slow things down.

[miff]

Chuck,

You missed the point I have been driving at all along. For about 17 years(I do not remember exactly)or more I have been buying TG.During the past few years I feel the product has changed. I tried to figure out why and I did comparisons with other similar products,but still no answers and only more questions.

About three years ago, I FIRST came to this site and began to read some of Jerrys latest thoughts and theories, I knew the old ones.Some I agreed with and some I had serious problems with.In seeking answers to what I felt was a \"changed\" product, I felt that maybe Jerry was beginning to let his personal beliefs slip into the figs.

Faster and faster figs,and many more \"ugly\"pairs were my main problems.  Comparable products were not showing the same thing to the same degree, if at all.I had also heard that pairs were given out \"as a matter of course\" at TG,but I did not believe the source that told me.

I thought I addressed my concerns to Jerry in a respectful way only to be spoken \"down\" to as if I had just started to buy the product and just learned the game and in a how dare you mode. The more I read the more I was convinced that maybe the current figs could not be interpreted/relied upon by me as before.

I have no problems with Jerry having his theories/opinions as long as he does not let them \"bias\"his figure making.Let the horses run the figs, period.