To Be Or Not To Be

[Silver Charm]

Tough to see Shakespeare getting beat by this soft bunch unless whatever created a 16 month layoff resurfaces after setting a track record over a rock hard surface. Only Bill Mott could have a trainer pattern where a runner has run three consecutive tops and have a 27% chance of running another one.

With a win Shakespeare would be a solid favorite on WTC Day and a solid horse to try and beat.

Aiden O\'Brien sends out an interesting sort who opened with three consecutive wins and hasn\'t won since. O\'Brien considered one of the sharpest trainers in Europe is 0-10 first time North America and 0-10 first time lasix. So what does he do this here.

Gives the horse FTL, gotta work eventually. Right?

[xichibanx]

SC,

From what I have been reading Ace is a second stringer in the O\'Brien barn.  He is running here looking for a softer spot away from the top Euros in the Arc this weekend and to keep him away from his better horses.  I saw his last couple from overseas and he really didn\'t impress me.  I picked Shakespere in the race but I will not be betting it.  If Ace won I wouldn\'t be shocked but I really don\'t want him at a shorter price in this field.

WTC day will be interesting at least BC Turf wise but I would want to see the Arc before I develop an opinion.

SC, What is your opinion on Angara tommarow?

xichibanx

[Silver Charm]

>SC, What is your opinion on Angara tommarow?

Same as Jerry\'s.

Incidentally, Sand Springs is going, going, gone. Giving Mott five winners on the Card.

[P.Eckhart]

Ace was pointing for the 10f Cox Plate before being rerouted here for this and the BC. Personally I was shocked. Ace is no second string, he is a top drawer G1 performer at 10f. The problem is he palpably failed to get home on his only try at 12f, which begs the question why is he in this spot.

[Silver Charm]

O\'Brien is trying the FTL angle.

Pass this spot and bet out on Forty Niners Son on Sunday in the Hirsh at Oaks Tree. With a better trip he could have taken down the Million.

[NoCarolinaTony]

I\'m not so sure Shakespeake is an imorrtal lock in this. Picks up 12 lbs and 3 furlongs (pannels to some). Could be the great equalizer.

Ace\'s  timeforms are very good and he has been racing against Europe\'s Best.The US stock is not comparable. Meteor Storm  (Loves Belmont)didn\'t run his best running style in a \"4\" horse feild that Shakespeare won. Who else is running up front with English Channel in this feild? EC does have a lot of heart and is fresh. The rest of this feild is \"alost\".

NC Tony

[jimbo66]

Shakespeare is not going to be a \"solid favorite\" on BC day, no matter what happens tomorrow.  Barring the Euros not sending anybody decent over.  

Powerscourt is not even a first stringer over there and he will probably be a shorter price than Shakespeare.  The field tomorrow is not strong enough such that even a win is not going to be enough to make Shakespeare the favorite.  

Ace is going to be tough tomorrow and it wouldn\'t be a shock to see a better race from Meteor STorm.  We know that Meteor Storm is better at 1 1/2 miles than at 1 1/8.  We don\'t know how Shakespeare will handle the opposite.  He is certainly well bred, but until he does it, there has to be a question.  Meteor Storm should be either on the lead saving ground through slow splits, or right behind the Pletcher, saving ground.  He also figures a nice price, since Shakespeare ate him alive in the stretch at 1 1/8.  

[Silver Charm]

>October 1, 2005 12:09AM

>Shakespeare is not going to be a \"solid favorite\" on BC day, no matter what happens tomorrow.



Jimbob the race is today Oct 1st not tomorrow Oct 2nd.

If he pairs his last figure he is a solid favorite. Solid being around 5-2 or possibly less.

And then again he could break his leg again today and all of this rhetoric is moot.

 

[Michael D.]

the big race is Oct 2nd. OTB has it live at 11:30 AM, ESPN tape delay at 6:00 PM.
if one of the big names fires big, and if shakes fires big today, we are probably looking at cofavorites in the BC..... as for today\'s race, from a betting angle, i just can\'t get excited about it. let\'s just hope shakespeare is the real deal. the sport could use another bailey/mott star.... good luck everybody.

[jimbo66]

How brilliant and anal of you Silver Charm, to point out that I wrote the post at 9 minutes after midnight, thus \"today\" was the proper word. Thank you for this very important correction.

We\'ll see if Shakespeare wins today, then worry about his odds on BC day.  Today is not a great field, but he has to prove he can run his figure at 1 1/2.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Of all the races on the card, the Hirsch is the least appealing. Hard to be inclined to bet Shakespeare with the weight and distance. Sure wouldn\'t want a short price on him.

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Shakespeare is not going to be a \"solid favorite\"
> on BC day, no matter what happens tomorrow.
> Barring the Euros not sending anybody decent over.
>  
>
> Powerscourt is not even a first stringer over
> there and he will probably be a shorter price than
> Shakespeare.  The field tomorrow is not strong
> enough such that even a win is not going to be
> enough to make Shakespeare the favorite.  
>
> Ace is going to be tough tomorrow and it wouldn\'t
> be a shock to see a better race from Meteor STorm.
>  We know that Meteor Storm is better at 1 1/2
> miles than at 1 1/8.  We don\'t know how
> Shakespeare will handle the opposite.  He is
> certainly well bred, but until he does it, there
> has to be a question.  Meteor Storm should be
> either on the lead saving ground through slow
> splits, or right behind the Pletcher, saving
> ground.  He also figures a nice price, since
> Shakespeare ate him alive in the stretch at 1 1/8.
>  
>
>