Breeders Cup Preview

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

First off, you got to be dying to Red Board some of those races.

Taste of Paradise in the Vosburgh? How did that stone off pace horse get up when it looked like speed was doing so well til then? (Uncle Camie) helped. That looks like a really fast final time. 1.08.4 on that track was smokin. Taste probably new topped big. Like I said, Im waking up to Red Board.

Then speed held well in the Beldame. That was the chance to cash Happy Ticket on top. The Distaff is gonna be tuff, but the cat is outta the bag now.

Then the Jockey Club Gold Cup front runners cave on 46.73 and 1.11.30 fractions. Lava Man missed the break on a tough turn hole. (You had to anticipate that to a certain extent) and Flower Alley went berzerker. The Pletcher entry figured to chuck it at 3-2. Rumor has it that Flower Alley had a neg. 2.2 TFig for the Travers. Man, thats hard to accept. Same old, Same old recently though: \"Flower wasn\'t as fast as they said or he bounced off a real fast number.\" Regardless, he regressed. He was the top 3YO by default, enough of this Champion 3YO b.s. Beating up on a restricted race Bellamania at 10 marks doesn\'t amount to a hill of beans.

Borrego was on top big at a mile and cruised on them. The others in THIS race better pass on the Classic. Suave has a money chance. That was another game effort by a horse coming out of the Saratoga Breeders Cup Handicap.

Sun King proved hes a tryer. He\'s just out of his league at the distance.

In the Goodwood Roman Ruler stayed close to Rock Hard Ten getting big weight at 9 marks. If Baffert sends him back to run in New York hes loopy. Ruler is a Zed horse with 120lbs at 10 marks. That aint gonna get it.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Not sure how you can look at the placing in the JCGC and explain it on the past numbers. It\'s gonna be another interesting figure it looks like, especially if you wanna give Suave a Zero. In that event Borrego is very likely to be a Classic bounce candidate.

Don\'t think Flower Alley, Bellamania and Roman Ruler ran quite as fast as the Travers figures suggest. That didn\'t get Alley beat in the JCGC though. He had a meltdown and didn\'t run his stalking race. (He was gonna lose regardless) Still, its very hard to project those horses running as good at 10 as they had 9. Didn\'t see it pre race and certainly don\'t see it post race.

Scrappy got beat I see. Time looked good. It may be Don\'t Get Mad ran a good one, but Scrappy may have needed a start too. At least he tried and finished.

 Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> First off, you got to be dying to Red Board some
> of those races.
>
> Taste of Paradise in the Vosburgh? How did that
> stone off pace horse get up when it looked like
> speed was doing so well til then? (Uncle Camie)
> helped. That looks like a really fast final time.
> 1.08.4 on that track was smokin. Taste probably
> new topped big. Like I said, Im waking up to Red
> Board.
>
> Then speed held well in the Beldame. That was the
> chance to cash Happy Ticket on top. The Distaff is
> gonna be tuff, but the cat is outta the bag now.
>
> Then the Jockey Club Gold Cup front runners cave
> on 46.73 and 1.11.30 fractions. Lava Man missed
> the break on a tough turn hole. (You had to
> anticipate that to a certain extent) and Flower
> Alley went berzerker. The Pletcher entry figured
> to chuck it at 3-2. Rumor has it that Flower Alley
> had a neg. 2.2 TFig for the Travers. Man, thats
> hard to accept. Same old, Same old recently
> though: \"Flower wasn\'t as fast as they said or he
> bounced off a real fast number.\" Regardless, he
> regressed. He was the top 3YO by default, enough
> of this Champion 3YO b.s. Beating up on a
> restricted race Bellamania at 10 marks doesn\'t
> amount to a hill of beans.
>
> Borrego was on top big at a mile and cruised on
> them. The others in THIS race better pass on the
> Classic. Suave has a money chance. That was
> another game effort by a horse coming out of the
> Saratoga Breeders Cup Handicap.
>
> Sun King proved hes a tryer. He\'s just out of his
> league at the distance.
>
> In the Goodwood Roman Ruler stayed close to Rock
> Hard Ten getting big weight at 9 marks. If Baffert
> sends him back to run in New York hes loopy. Ruler
> is a Zed horse with 120lbs at 10 marks. That aint
> gonna get it.

I think a lot of people were scratching their heads a little when Pletcher entered a rabbit in the Gold Cup considering Flower Alley\'s stalking style, but when he was between horses in a 46.3 (which is quite fast for a Belmont 10F race that starts on the turn) the guys I was with mostly had dropped jaws. I guess he was a little too wound up or something, but that was preposterous.

Unless something significant happens in any remaining sprints, I have to think yesterday\'s Voshburg result makes LITF the heavy favorite.

Happy Ticket is one nice filly.

Rock Hard Ten has yet to run a super fast race, but he keeps winning and he looked pretty good yesterday chasing down Romer Ruler at 9F off that slow pace. That was a perfect prep considering the division fell apart even further yesterday.

I think The Daddy\'s \"10F\" win against the 2nd/3rd string 3YO routers compliments the quality of LITF\'s opposition a little.

Shakespeare and English Channel were both very game. Shakespeare looked brilliant when he moved up on the turn, but I was a little disappointed he couldn\'t draw off from those horses after making that kind of move. If the Europeans send someone from the top string, I think they can beat him unless he moves forward some more in his second try at 12F. Hard to criticize him though.

 
 
 

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Theres been horses carve out 46.3 or 46.4 halfs in the JCGC since they made it a 3YO\'s race, obviously depends on the track race day. Albert the Great for instance. I know Funny Cide was on that fraction in the JCGC he missed. But on that track 46.73 was probably a mistake. Still, it was no reason to collapse. A combination of factors did Flower Alley in. The key was waiting for a race where these world beaters moved up to face their elders and the Jockey Club Gold Cup was that opportunity.

The backfire rabbit cinched it...lol

Theres only 1 3YO that belongs in the B.C.Classic, but Scrappy had some trouble yesterday and may have needed a race. Its also possible Don\'t Get Mad fired a real good one. I\'ll look at the day carefully. Still Scrappy\'s best to this point was only Zero.

I\'ve noticed another issue, looking at Red Boarding and ROTW\'s lately. Has anyone else noticed Tgraph is assigning career top figures to 3YO\'s and its taking them until age 4 maturation to duplicate or exceed them? Borrego\'s sheet rang the bell on that. Take a look. Look at Suave as well, though Suave was off for months. In other words did anyone really believe Flower Alley\'s Travers was 2 full points (4 lengths) faster than Borrego\'s Pacific Classic? Anyone? That was incredulous. He beat Bellamy Road, what is that worth an automatic negative 2.2? The one bad apple spoiling the whole bunch effect? Did that Negative 5 from the Wood impact the Travers figure? I Haven\'t reviewed the Jim Dandy number yet, but I think its time.

If Baffert comes east with Roman Ruler weighted up he\'s wacked. Don\'t worry, he won\'t unless its a mle race.


classhandicapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think a lot of people were scratching their
> heads a little when Pletcher entered a rabbit in
> the Gold Cup considering Flower Alley\'s stalking
> style, but when he was between horses in a 46.3
> (which is quite fast for a Belmont 10F race that
> starts on the turn) the guys I was with mostly had
> dropped jaws. I guess he was a little too wound up
> or something, but that was preposterous.
>
> Unless something significant happens in any
> remaining sprints, I have to think yesterday\'s
> Voshburg result makes LITF the heavy favorite.

> Happy Ticket is one nice filly.
>
> Rock Hard Ten has yet to run a super fast race,
> but he keeps winning and he looked pretty good
> yesterday chasing down Romer Ruler at 9F off that
> slow pace. That was a perfect prep considering the
> division fell apart even further yesterday.
>
> I think The Daddy\'s \"10F\" win against the 2nd/3rd
> string 3YO routers compliments the quality of
> LITF\'s opposition a little.
>
> Shakespeare and English Channel were both very
> game. Shakespeare looked brilliant when he moved
> up on the turn, but I was a little disappointed he
> couldn\'t draw off from those horses after making
> that kind of move. If the Europeans send someone
> from the top string, I think they can beat him
> unless he moves forward some more in his second
> try at 12F. Hard to criticize him though.
>
>  
>  
>  
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 10/02/05 10:46AM by
> classhandicapper.

[spa]

Chuckles, are you ruling out Alex??? Did you see what happened when Rose shook the reins at him. It looked to me that he almost jumped out of his skin surging forward........

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I typed poorly. The one 3YO with a chance is Alex. He is clearly the best horse of this crop. (Still have to review Indiana Derby Day)

Its a dayum shame a gutless sprinter like Lost in the Fog could steal 3YO honors from him. Alex can sprint. Any horse can sprint. Still, Fog has been ducking the horses that are going to challenge him on the lead B.C. Day. Hes a good sprinter but if he comes to New York hes in a whole new environment. The B.C. sprint is a tough race to win, especially as favorite. I\'ll be taking a stand against him.



spa Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles, are you ruling out Alex??? Did you
> see what happened when Rose shook the reins at
> him. It looked to me that he almost jumped out of
> his skin surging forward........

CTC,

\"Its a dayum shame a gutless sprinter like Lost in the Fog\"

I was reviewing the DRF book \"Champions\" last night and I\'d be hard pressed to find a better overall sprint campaign than LITF\'s. We all know that he\'s been beating 3YOs etc... but Housebuster pretty much did the same for most of his dominant year.

IMHO, if LITF wins the BC sprint, this would have to go down as one of/if not the best sprint campaign of the last 30 years or more.    

[jimbo66]

Yes, \"gutless sprinter\" is another dumb comment from the Clown, class.  And you know how I hate to agree with you......

LITF is nothing, even if he wins the BC Sprint this year, wins 10 straight next year as well.  Until he wins at 12 marks, he is a gutless sprinter......

Seriously though, I just can\'t get past the feeling that LITF is not as good as his record indicates.  The best horse he has beaten so far is Egghead.  But he won\'t have to beat much next time either.  Who exactly will be 2nd choice in the BC Sprint?  

I am very very late to the Afleet Alex bandwagon, but kudos to Ritchey and the owners for pushing forward with this horse when they very easily could have retired him and \"cashed in\".  They have done everything right so far, I just hope they don\'t make a mistake that hurts the horse in the next few weeks and run him 1 1/4, when is isn\'t ready yet.  Would love to see him run down Dutrow\'s Saint Liam inside the eighth pole and then have the camera span to smug Dutrow as Alex wins the Classic.  I don\'t think he will win the Classic and can\'t bet him to do it, but it would be good for racing if he did.  The problem is exactly what kind of prep two weeks off this long layoff would get him ready for the BC Classic?  if he runs a soft race, he won\'t be tight enough, if he runs a big effort, it will be tough to come back in two weeks.  I guess the former will be teh strategy.  

As for Horse of the Year, it should be Alex.  I would give Alex a decent shot to beat LITF at 7 furlongs, when he is right.  

[P-Dub]

Typing isn\'t the only thing you do poorly.

Gutless sprinter?? A gutless sprinter gives up the lead down the stretch. When has LITF done that??

Ducking horses?? Gilchrist has let everyone know well in advance where he will be running. He\'s run for big purses and in Graded company, its not like these races are not worth running in. Running in the Riva Ridge and King\'s Bishop is ducking competition?? Several different horses took their shots at him in the RR, I thought he showed a lot of heart in that 7F race. He\'s run more than 1 negative 2 so he\'s certainly talented enough.  Its not like he\'s running 3s and every one else is running 4s.   When are some of you going to give this horse some credit??  If he wins the BC Sprint it will be because the field was depleted, or some other reason besides he\'s a damn good horse.  Did you cry this much when Favorite Trick beat nothing but a bunch of 2 YOs when he was HOY??  LITF has raced all over the country, racing over multiple tracks with many cross country trips. Name me another horse that has logged more miles than him??

Its OK to raise questions and compare different campaigns. To belittle LITF\'s accomplishments is juvenile at best.  You must have been a piece of work on the playgrounds when you got whipped over and over.

I breathlessly await your next post entitled \" Why Easy Goer is better than Sunday Silence despite being beaten 3 out of 4 times\".

Looking forward to LITF silencing the doubters in 4 weeks.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Typing isn\'t the only thing you do poorly.

Another is being patient with ninnies that don\'t have a clue.
 
> Gutless sprinter?? A gutless sprinter gives up the
> lead down the stretch. When has LITF done that??

Gutless in that he never even attempted to prove he was a real horse. Never gave the most remote thought to it. Totally gutless.

 
> Ducking horses?? Gilchrist has let everyone know
> well in advance where he will be running. He\'s run
> for big purses and in Graded company, its not like
> these races are not worth running in.

What are you talking about? He\'s got one significant win against one horse that is now dead. The 3YO sprinters are even weaker than the Classic level horses. Oh wait he did win the Bay Meadow Speed Handicap!!

> When are some of you going to give
> this horse some credit??  

When he wins at a mile against Graded Stakes olders, like good horses do. Ta Wee, Dr Fager, Precisionist, Smile...etc.

> If he wins the BC Sprint
> it will be because the field was depleted, or some
> other reason besides he\'s a damn good horse.  

You\'re exactly correct. The B.C.Sprint is becoming as much a survivor race as the Travers. It\'ll be fun, but they won\'t be the best. Still don\'t think he\'ll handle the pressure there, but if he does certainly not gonna jump up and down claiming we\'ve seen greatness...lol

> Its OK to raise questions and compare different
> campaigns. To belittle LITF\'s accomplishments is
> juvenile at best.  

Oh yeah? Who has he beat...lol Are you aware that one of the best ways to score handicapping horses is to understand how they stake up against each other? Ok...hes king of the 3YO spinters..Whoopeee.

> You must have been a piece of
> work on the playgrounds when you got whipped over
> and over.

Hey, you\'re the one that brought playground sensitivity into this, not I. Freudian?
 
> I breathlessly await your next post entitled \" Why
> Easy Goer is better than Sunday Silence despite
> being beaten 3 out of 4 times\".

Ok, one sentence. Trade Trainers and Easy Goer beats Sunday Silence 3-1, though he was never gonna win that Derby despite going quickly past him by the wire.
 
> Looking forward to LITF silencing the doubters in
> 4 weeks.

Send it in. Bet with both hands....LMAO

[P-Dub]

CTC wrote:

>Gutless in that he never even attempted to prove he was a real horse. Never gave the most remote thought to it. Totally gutless.>

Again, Gilchrist announced his schedule well in advance. BTW, \"he\" doesn\'t schedule his races, Gilchrist does. This comment is so ridiculous I should just stop here.

>What are you talking about? He\'s got one significant win against one horse that is now dead. The 3YO sprinters are even weaker than the Classic level horses. Oh wait he did win the Bay Meadow Speed Handicap!!>

This was your response to ducking competition. How many 3 YOs race against older until later in the year??  Afleet Alex has raced against how many older horses?? Flower Alley sure looked good against older, didn\'t he?? Its called managing your horse. He also won the Riva Ridge and King\'s Bishop. Nobody told Bellamy Road not to run in the King\'s Bishop. I suppose thats LITF\'s fault??

>When he wins at a mile against Graded Stakes olders, like good horses do. Ta Wee, Dr Fager, Precisionist, Smile...etc.>

His career isn\'t over yet. Plenty of time to do that.  BTW, not just any horse can sprint.

>You\'re exactly correct. The B.C.Sprint is becoming as much a survivor race as the Travers. It\'ll be fun, but they won\'t be the best. Still don\'t think he\'ll handle the pressure there, but if he does certainly not gonna jump up and down claiming we\'ve seen greatness...lol>

Nice cop-out. You don\'t think he\'ll do it, but just in case he does........ Show me the quote where I decree LITF as great if he wins the BC??

>Oh yeah? Who has he beat...lol Are you aware that one of the best ways to score handicapping horses is to understand how they stake up against each other? Ok...hes king of the 3YO spinters..Whoopeee.>

You then say.......

>Ok, one sentence. Trade Trainers and Easy Goer beats Sunday Silence 3-1, though he was never gonna win that Derby despite going quickly past him by the wire.>

Do I even need to responsd to this one?? Dude, you are really something else. A complete contradiction. I guess we can stack them up against each other unless you say otherwise.


Jerry,  I promise I won\'t respond to this guy on this subject again. I know you don\'t like your board getting cluttered but this guy is amazing.

[richiebee]

Class said
     
     \"IMHO if LITF wins the BC Sprint, this would have to go down as one of/if not the best sprint campaigns of the last 30 years or more\"

Its hard to knock an undefeated horse, but four of his victories came at what we used to call \"leaky roof\" tracks: 2 at Golden Gate, one at Turf Paradise, and Saturday\'s win at Bay Meadows.

In his other victories, going backwards in time from his victory in the King\'s Bishop at the Spa, he has gone off at the following odds: 30 cents on the dollar, 5 cents on the dollar (Calder), 40 cents on the dollar (Belmont), 15 cents on the dollar (Aq), 50 cents on the dollar (GP Swale) and 70 cents on the dollar(GP Stronach Sunshine Million). Those low odds reflect domination of weak competition.

LITF, if anything, is one of the best managed horses we have seen recently. His connections were never tempted to stretch their colt out and are now rewarded with an animal who has earned over $900,000 and will seemingly arrive for the BC Sprint in sound physical condition.

All that being said, I think he will arrive at the BC overhyped and overrated, thus overbet, and will be a \"bet against\" for me.

When fans talk of great sprinters, I always feel compelled to bring up a personal favorite, the great filly Gold Beauty, champion sprinter of 1982. This was a small filly with a huge heart, defeating males in the True North and the Fall Highweight and winning the Test Stakes versus her own gender as a 3YO. She retired with 8 wins from 12 starts.

After her retirement, this daughter of Mr. P became a great producer. Her son, Dayjur, was champion sprinter in Europe and an unlucky second to Safely Kept in the BC Sprint. Her daughter, Maplejinsky, won the Monmouth Oaks and the Alabama, and Maplejinsky produced Sky Beauty, who won 9 Grade 1 stakes under the supervision of Allen Jerkens.
 

[beyerguy]

LITF showed up for the biggest and best 3yo sprints, what else can he do.  The fields are weak because other than Egg Head, any other decent horse has ducked him.  Those who haven\'t have pretty much been demolished.  Any horse that goes near him early is way back at the finish, while LITF keeps right on running.

[jbelfior]

Anyone know what SIR GREELEY\'s # was last week?....nothing to read in between here...just wondering what this improving 3 yo sprinter\'s (wasn\'t CAJUN BEAT an improving 3yo sprinter?) number was when he blew the doors off of VALUE PLUS.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[NoCarolinaTony]

P-Dub,

It was my lock of the week prediction  last week that Ctc will try to dominate this board with BC stuff. CH has been rather patient lately..

CtC and Easy Goer.What a pair.

NC Tony