Lane's End

[congaree1]

Let me quess, Dawn of War was moving forward.

CON

[TGJB]

He was definitely usable, but I screwed it up-- boxed 4, using 2-11-12-13, didn\'t hit it. That track is very, very tough-- I wouldn\'t begin learning to use the data by playing there.

[Michael D.]

you got Host on your tickets at 10-1 if you\'re using TG. unfortunately, i didn\'t consider the 10, and my pk4 tickets are long dead. one difficult track no doubt.

[Kasept]

I also had him in my 5 horse box, as well as Gulch Approval, but could never have come up with Catcominatcha... Count me as another who struggles with KEE...

Dawn\'s 14-14-6-6-8 coming in looked very appealing, especially with a 5/3-2-0 mark and 2 starts at the trip...

[Michael D.]

the \"6\" at 1m 70 made this guy very usable at 36-1, as Jerry says. i just couldn\'t take the backwards move last, and i though he would have to be used harder to get the lead from that post.

[JR]

Yea, but those 10 cent Superfectas are a gem! Box 8 for $168 and get back $4k. How can you lose?

[sighthound]

chalk-chalk-chalk-chalk = $30

[NoCarolinaTony]

Jerry,

First off I hate Keeneland tellers. I had called the 11-6 exacta box only to get a $4 quinella?....(race is about to go off so I took it).Anyway I was undecided between 6 and 9 for second slot in super. I finally decide to use 9 here was my ticket (sic) 2-5-11/2-5-9-11/2-5-6-9-11/2-5-6-9-11-12 (why not box for $0.10?)

At least I had my $20 win and the lousy $4 qui. Still felt like a loser.

Ask Mall....we both hit the race and felt like losers.

Anyway how could you not have that horse somewhere in the exacta or other exotics. He was favored over 12 in last race (second choice) he stumbled at start and was one of only a few horses  in the race with 2 turn(ie those who came in the super had 2 turn experince).Turning for home i have $10 ex box 2-11 ( why did prado get off rail?) and $10 box 5-11. His figs were equally as good as the next best horse who figured to get a rough trip from the 12.

Also was live in NTRA pic 4 with the 3 favs in last leg . None of them ran a lick. Tried to cover with the 8+10 but needed the 2-3 or 5 somewhere in the $.

Oh well a day that could have been


Nc Tony

[shanahan]

the analysis is inexcusable for KNLD saturday - specifically on \"WAR\".  40% to pair up and 40% for a new top on the pattern...and you don\'t even mention it?  Unfortunately I bought the analysis, not the Thoroquick...I won\'t make that mistake again...that is really outrageous to tell your paying customers \"definitely usable\" after the fact...how about a credit for future product?  Sounds odd, but good god...

[ronwar]

I read here sometime ago a good pattern to play next time out is when a horse pairs, then has an off or x.  A lot of times they come back with a good one. I have found that it especially so for horses still developing.

I went about 4 deep in that race to catch him though. Unfortunately I didnt think Host would come out running and left him of my ticket in the 4th leg.

[TGJB]

Shanahan-- wrong. I didn\'t do the analysis, but I actually took a walk over to OTB to make almost exactly the same bet (Sharp Attack to win, protect under Laity). When I saw the prices I changed my play-- War, who figured to be bet as one of the contenders, was 30-1, and Ritchey\'s horse was 18-1. So I made half my play on SA to win, the rest on a weighted 4 horse box-- using War less than the others.

1-- Overlays come up that we can\'t forsee-- we have to get the analysis up for sale by the evening before.

2-- We can\'t assume that everyone who buys the analysis has the resources to make big spread plays.

3-- We have always said that you are much better off learning how to use the data and making your own decisions. This example shows why-- the real good players don\'t make a decision avbout how to PLAY a race (as opposed to handicapping, and forming opinions of the horses\' chances) until at least 10 minutes to post.

[Mall]

\"Loser\" might be too strong a word after cashing on & keying a 38-1 shot. I just wish I was the one who bought the analysis, since Lucas\' horse was the only one in the top 6 that I didn\'t use in the super, which I thought was the right approach, as before the race it seemed as likely, or maybe even more likely, that the winner would run 2nd or 3rd from an outside post at 8.5f. At Kee, they sometimes go a number of yrs in between wins from the nine hole at that distance, & when you\'re trying to make a home run type score & don\'t use \"all\" in the 4th slot of the super, you know going in that the risk of not cashing that bet is very high.  On the other hand, \"loser\" might be just the right word for our play today keying Pampered Princess in 1st & 2nd in the super & not using the Pletcher horse which finished 3rd. At least you were smart enough to cash a nice win & even nicer exacta bet. Solid start to what should be a very good meet for you if you keep up the good work. It was fun.  

[shanahan]

I\'m not asking for refunds here...just accountability for the product, thats all...it\'s your business, and opinions are what we pay for on analysis.  Do you really think it is excusable in lieu of the data?  I don\'t...and am still dismayed it could be overlooked by the producer.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Mall,

You are right and  I am being too hard . I know you and I left thousands in superfecta\'s (sic) there going for the big time play.  It hurts when you have the right runners but just don\'t play it right in the end.

And you were also right about the 8 (Capeside Lady) we left out of todays Race 8 super today. I re-looked at the form on the flight back. I believe that if we could make a case for including Bending Stings, clearly you could make a similar case that Capeside Lady also belonged.

Breeders cup day is coming!!

In the end, I also had a lot of fun and appreciate the added insight you provided this weekend. Thanks!!!

With hindsight the TG race of the week clearly should have been the Spinster and not the Winstar Galaxy. It clearly would have shown the value in TG figure vis a vis the Intercontinental race as it turned out. (Hind sight is 20 20)

One last thing to those who don\'t like to play Keeneland. There is HUGE value in the Superfecta Pools ( the $0.10 ). It seems to be bringing in a lot of speculative money that otherwise wouldn\'t ordinarily be there.

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

Shanahan,

I couldn;t believe my eyes when I saw the Dale Romans horse at 36-1 , who was favored over  Laity(12) in the previous race, and who stumbled at the start of his last, gets completely overlooked by the Kee crowd. Post 11 & 12 are tough there although it ended up 9&10 with the scratches. If you could bet the 12 you had to bet the 11 for all the same reasons. What is the value you would prefer?

Anyway, you have to be flexible when betting when opportunities like that present themselves. Jerry is right in that you should wait as long as possible to make your bets, unless you have to phone em in.............

Good luck

NC Tony