Watchmaker -- Breeders Cup piece

[SoCalMan2]

Anybody read Mike Watchmaker\'s summary of this weekend\'s preps?  Did you follow him?

First, I did not understand what he was saying about the Juvenile.  He seems oblivious to the potential impact of wind even though he notes that Jerry Bailey explained the blistering early fractions by the presence of a \"fierce tailwind.\"  What is he saying about the closeness of the horses at the quarter and the half?  One would think a tailwind would push all horses so it would be natural for there not to be the spread you would expect for a non wind-aided 21 and change 43 and change. Also, presumably, the slow final quarter could be explained in part by the long tailwind in the backstretch becoming a strong headwind for the last quarter, but he does not consider this.  

Second, he compares the final time of the Frizette and the Juvenile.  I do not know how one compares times because there are so many potential variables, and I rely on experts to do it for me.  But, if you already know the faster of the two of the races was run with a fierce tailwind for the longer backstretch run and fierce headwind for the shorter stretch run (again derived from his own text), you would expect such a race to have a faster time than the other race which did not have the benefit of such a \"net\" wind-aided effect with all other things being equal, yet he ignores this.  Also, he plays down that the races were only 40 minutes apart, yet anybody with a passing familiarity with sailing knows that it is not an unusual phenomenon for wind to pick up over the course of an afternoon and the wind can strengthen quite a bit in 40 minutes (especially true on Long Island).  I am not saying I know this to happen.  I was 5,000 miles away and do not know what happened, but it seems like an explanation to consider which he does not even though he brings up Bailey\'s comment.

Finally, with regard to the Lane\'s End, he says that Dawn of War was \"previously unheralded.\"  Where does he get that?  This was a horse that was never lower than 9-2 in his entire career (including running twice as a maiden in stakes races), was the 8-5 favorite in the $200,000 Miller High Life Cradle (OVER the favorite in the Lane\'s End), and had the second highest lifetime Beyer figure coming into the race (and Watchmaker himself quotes Beyer figures in this same piece so he can\'t be oblivious to the product of his own paper).  Then, he somehow believes the horse was \"understandably dismissed at 36-1\"?!?!?!?  What is he talking about?  This horse had just been favored over the favorite, Laity, in their prior race and came in second with an excuse in that race.  How is such a horse \"understandably dismissed at 36-1?\"

[high roller]

excellent post, much better than the stuff by CTC

[SoCalMan2]

I meant to say that, in his career prior to the Lane\'s End, Dawn of War\'s odds were never higher than 9-2 not never lower.

There was another article the other day where Gary Stevens said he looked like a idiot for gunning Henny Hughs to such fast fractions, but he was under instructions from Bianconne to go all out for the lead.

I wasn\'t there to judge if the wind had any impact on the fractions or not (someone else can tell us that), but IMHO, the jockeys were being a bit more aggresssive than usual late in the card (the way they often are on freshly sloppy tracks that can be speed favoring).

The 2F, 4F, and even 6F fractions for the filly race were also very fast relative to the final time (look at the 6th race at 1M).

Personally, I don\'t think it\'s possible to quantify the pace or its imapact exactly (because of that speed tilted track), but IMO there\'s no way the colt division pace was totally a function of wind. Those were VERY fast sprinters and they were cooking early and this was a mile race.  


 

 

[jbelfior]

I know they are lightly raced 2 yos, but that race had to take something out of FIST SAMURAI. Not sure Brothers wanted that type of race prior to the BC. Wind or no wind, that was a sick pace.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[scavsiu8]

Samurai bled in the race, 2 out of 5 and will be racing on lasix for the 1st time in the BC Juvenile

[TGJB]

Now, that is very interesting about the bleeding. Where did you see that?

There\'s another interesting DRF piece on the unbelievably slow times at Kee. Boy, Miff, they must have some really bad horses down there this year. But I see where that Beyer guy gave a horse who went 6f in 1:11:3 a 110, and the Shadwell winner a 104 for 1:37:3 on FIRM turf. What a nut, huh?

\"In general, horsemen are more apt to complain about a track being too fast, because that tends to increase the risk of injury\".-- Wed DRF, page 4.

Hmmm...

[jbelfior]

DARLEY STABLE was obviously not happy with Mr. Biancone\'s strategy. They sent the horse to Kiaran McLaughlin today.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[scavsiu8]

Lansdon Robbins, part owner....He is a part of another message board and it is unbelievable how cool he is. He loves to talk about his horses and gives us insight about what was going on. FS is actually the most expensive horse that he has purchased and was touting him from the day he hit the track. Nice to see it work out for such a great guy.

Joe,

\"DARLEY STABLE was obviously not happy with Mr. Biancone\'s strategy. They sent the horse to Kiaran McLaughlin today. \"

I don\'t know if you read the article with Steven\'s comments, but it didn\'t say anything about \"why\" he wanted the lead. If he thought the track was being kind to speed, it might make some sense, but not if Too Much Bling (fast and with blinkers on) wanted it too. Yet the comments were very specific. Something like \"what do you want me to do if they go 21.4?\"  \"Go 21.3\". LOL

[elkurzhal]

Moving HH had nothing to do with Mr. Biancone\'s strategy.

http://bc.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=30445

\"The move comes on the heels of a reported sales boycott by Henny Hughes\' owner Sheikh Mohammed and Godolphin against stallions owned by Coolmore Stud, whose Michael Tabor is one of Biancone\'s biggest clients.\"

[miff]

TGJB,

Not surprising you missed the track supers comment \"They\'re still going six in 1:12\" Of course thats normal, duh, except that the raw times are some of the \"slowest in Keenlands history\" Wouldn\'t expect a \"racing\"clueless track super to know the courses are very slow compared to what is normal.

I don\'t get your point on the raw times.The main track and turf are painfully slow so I\'m sure beyer and you have adjusted the variant accordingly.Seems that 1:11.3 and 1:37.3 are fast races considering the surfaces.

[TGJB]

MIff-- no idea what your first paragraph meant. I not only read that quote, I considered including it in my post.

But yes-- we do know how to adjust for track speed. That\'s the point. And that\'s why figures-- not raw times-- are the only accurate way to compare performances, whether they take place over different tracks, or years apart.

[miff]

TGJB,

I never disagreed with that premise and you oversimplfied my previous postings which speak to the inordinate number of neg figs, recently,some of which are questionable, imo.

When several credible fig makers are far apart, on certain races, there is reason for debate. It\'s happening with MUCH greater frequency than before.

For example, you and Rags are approx 8 lengths apart on Borrego and that is ridiculous, regardless of which data one uses.The methodology is basically the same, so what happened? I know you can\'t speak for Rags.

Re Borreg Rag fig,I called a Raggie friend who is close to Rags management. If they respond, I\'ll post it.

[TGJB]

Miff-- There is reason for debate AMONG FIGURE MAKERS, or those that have a BASIS for debate, not just an \"opinion\". All opinions are not created equal.

I will be very interested in hearing whatever your friend finds out, but the betting is that they will say they \"gave them what they ran\".