REQUEST OF OH GREAT ONE- JERRY BROWN

[high roller]

hi jerry,

could you post based on histrical precedent what number it will take to win each bc race. my opinion below

juv filly  6

juv colt 4

sprint - 2

turf mile 0

turf filly 3

classic - 3

turf  classic 0

[TGJB]

Hysterical precedent? Wise guy...

Horses have gotten so much faster that there really is no way of making a comparison. The last 5 years of BC sheets, with the numbers they ran that day, are in the archives, comparing to before that would be a really bad idea.

But you got me thinking, and here\'s something to keep you guys busy, since I know that some of you (Kev?) like to do this kind of thing. The BC comes at the end of a long year, and my gut feel is that a lower than usual percentage of horses run tops or pair them, keeping in mind they are stake horses. My sense is that it is especially true of the older ones.

Someone want to do the work for the last 5 years? Percentage of paired and new tops, by race, by dirt vs. grass, etc.?

[miff]

Do ya think HISTORICAL precedent is what High Roller meant?

[TGJB]

Geez, I didn\'t think of that...

I guess that\'s why people put that stupid LOL after their jokes. But I\'m drawing the line-- I refuse.

[miff]

Busting chops, you could at least put a smiley face.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Here is Some Fodder for you to consider last 5 years AVG TG


Mile 1.3
JUV Fillies 3.3
JUv Colts 5.0
Sprint -1.25
FM Turf 2.3
Turf Classic 1.2-1.3
Distaff 1.1
Classic -1.5

What is more interesting is the way the winners Figures improved over the last 10 races prior to BC and how much tighter the dispersion of the number (avg) became in L5 and L3 races prior to BC. In otherwords the horses became tighter and less \"bouncy\" as they got closer to BC Day.

For what thats worth.

NC Tony

[kev]

First of all I didn\'t do the baby races, 2nd: a pair to me was within 1/4 of a pt. either way. If the horse had either one or two races here in the usa and no euro number\'s I didn\'t mess with them, but if they had enough euro number\'s I use those.

This is from 1999 threw 2004: 3 races on the dirt and 3 races on the turf.

Dirt Races:
There was 19 tops ran on dirt and 19 pair ups

Turf Races:
There was 29 tops ran on turf and 32 pair ups

For the age:
Dirt: Top (19) 10--3yr  8--4yr  1--5yr
Pair ups: (19) 8--3yr   3--4yr  2--5yr  5--6yr  1--8yr

Turf: Top (29) 12--3yr  11--4yr  5--5yr  1--7yr
Pair ups: (32) 9--3yr   12--4yr  5--5yr  4--6yr  2--7yr

Distaff: 6 tops and 5 pair-ups
Sprint:  7 tops and 8 pair-ups
Classic: 6 tops and 6 pair-ups

Turf:    7 tops and 10 pair-ups
Mile:   12 tops and  8 pair-ups
F/M:    10 tops and 14 pair-ups

Now like I said I didn\'t use some of the turf horses, cause lack of number\'s.
Number of horses in those races.
Distaff  54          
Turf     63
Sprint   81          
Mile     81
Clas.    75          
F/M      76