Can't stop my leg...

[TGJB]

Someone sent me a copy of the Ragozin B.C. sheets. I looked at them, and once I got up from the floor, a few questions occurred to me, so we\'ll do a pop quiz, like last year. We\'ll start with this one:

According to Ragozin, the fastest race run this year by any filly in the Distaff field is--

a) Ashado\'s 9 length win in the GI Go For Wand.

b) Happy Ticket\'s 5 length win in the GI Ballerina.

c) Stellar Jayne\'s 1 1/2 length win in the GI Ruffian.

d) Sweet Symphony\'s 6 length win in the GI Alabama.

e) Healthy Addiction\'s nose victory over Fencelineneighbor in a restricted overnight stake at Del Mar.

Yep, you got it. According to Ragozin, Healthy Addiction not only ran faster than any of the others this year, but fast enough that day to beat Stellar Jayne or Sweet Symphony, on their best race this year, by about 5 lengths-- but only fast enough to beat Fencelineneighbor by a nose.

You gotta admit, those guys have a sense of humor. More to follow.

[J-DUB]

     Those overnighters out west must be some tough hustle!

[kev]

You all have Lost in the Fog tied for the 5th fastest, they have him the fastest by 1/4pt over Pomeroy. My main picks this year is going to with TG figs. I got the rag\'s sheets to help with some horses I might be stuck on. Yes, both products are all over the place in their number\'s. It\'s two different style\'s you have to use in reading both. Rag\'s horses bounce alot more than TG. I\'ll tell you what there\'s one horse that looks to either to run monster race or stink up the track on both products and that\'s Rock Hard Ten. This guy has a pattern that he could be sitting on one hell of a race.

Jerry did you get anything out of the BC tops and pair-ups I wrote?? Looks like 3yr dirt are more solid to run tops and turf horses just keep pounding their figs out.

[Boscar Obarra]

 lol. Been saying for MANY YEARS this whole figure thing was an art form as much as a science. Don\'t know who\'s right, but TG is certainly more transparent about what they do , and in public.

The only absolutes in this game are the guys that take measurements in CC\'s.

[TGJB]

That \"5th fastest\" with LITF is a little simplistic, since other than WH we\'re talking about very small differentials, and that\'s before weights, and the others mostly have isolated big figures-- I vote in the TVG sprint poll, and I put LITF second, because consistency is an issue in probability. We may get to Ragzoin\'s sprint figures later on, but there are much juicier things to look at.

I\'ll take a look at your stuff when I get time, but the way you did it makes for an apples/oranges comparison, since we use specific standards for new top, pair etc. when we do our studies.

By \"all over the place\", I assume you mean relative to each other, since I keep hearing exactly the opposite about our stuff. And those discrepencies are exactly what I\'m going to be pointing out, framing the conversation in the real world (otherwise known as common sense). Do you really believe Healthy Addiction ran a better figure than those other fillies?

[Silver Charm]

>consistency is an issue in probability.

I\'m impressed. You don\'t get that kind of education growing up at OTB.

[kev]

All over the place...meaning TG might have one horse moving forward 1pt and Rag\'s will have it backing up 4pts. As far as Healthy A. beyer has 8 other horses fastest than her. Does seem a little fast.

[TGJB]

Okay, I\'m going home to watch the Astros bring home my bet (got 7.5-1 before the playoffs started), but I\'ll throw the second pop quiz out there before I leave.


What is \"18\"?

a) one of the numbers on the hatch in \"Lost\".

b) the winning figure Ragozin gave the winner of a 2yo 20k maiden claimer at Calder in July.

c) the number Ragozin gave Folklore for winning the GII Adirondack at Saratoga.


Yep. This was the famous July 27th at Saratoga day, where Friedman said that there was no need to split the variant even though they sealed the track before the last 2 dirt races, one of which was the stake.

Now, to appreciate this, you have to understand two things-- first, that Ragozin had Folklore\'s 2 previous numbers as 14-13, and her next 2 as 10-5, and that this was a race where she WON a graded stake.

Second-- and this is important to keep in mind with all these examples, like The Daddy/Borrego, and Healthy Addiction/all the top mares in training-- THERE WERE LOTS OF OTHER HORSES IN THE ADIRONDACK WHO GOT EVEN WORSE NUMBERS. Like Adieu, for example, who by an amazing coincidence, according to Ragozin, also picked that day to run 6 points worse than on any other day of her life, while only getting beaten a couple of lengths in a GII at Saratoga. And all the other horses in those two races that (with the exception of the winner of the other late dirt race, who ran out of his mind) I predicted AT THE TIME would all \"go forward\" a bunch next time out,on Ragozin-- like Ragozin said Adieu and Folklore did.

Yeah,that probably happened.

[Michael D.]

Jerry,
Why don\'t you post all those Adirondack #\'s after the BC. I will remind you later. At the beginning of the Saratoga meet, some trainers were making noise about the new super, and changing track conditions during the day. TG and Beyer made some pretty big adjustments, Ragozin did not.......

[high roller]

hi jerry

todd pletcher was on tvg yesterday talking about how the track changed drastically for these last two races, you should get the transscript and post it