The Classic

[kev]

Looks like to me it\'s going to take a -2 to -3 to win this race.

You have two of the three fav\'s that looks like to run a soild race. Being Saint L. and Rock. meaning I can\'t toss them nor can I make them a key. The other horse being Borrego, he might be backing up off that big race last time out. So what other horses at long odds and that are fast enough will do. Next is Flower Alley has a -2.2 and get\'s in light, I don\'t like the high bounce in his last race but he could come back around to the -0.2 range with weight he could grap a little share of it. Sir Shackleton has a -2.2 he caught my eye the other day looking like he had a line where he could pop in that big race again, then this morning I study it a little bit more and thought now he really had a shot to run his top, and he will be every bit of 20-1 or more. Perfect Drift at best will run his -0.2. Sun King even though he has a -1.0 at the weight it would make him a horse to deal with. SK line is ok, good thing is he\'s a 3yr and has about seven weeks from that top.

[scottv]

RHT\'s poor performance outside of California really, really bothers me.  Plus the foot bruise just further adds risk to betting him.  St. Liam\'s layoff is not attractive, but since he has a race over the track, a great jockey and the right running style, he seems more attractive than RHT.  
Perfect Drift scares me as a place/show horse wager at 20-1.

[NoCarolinaTony]

What you saw of RHT outside Cali was all pre Mandella and was as an immature 3yo.
The foot bruise issue is another matter that has me concerned.


NC Tony

[scottv]

I love RHT, it\'s just hard for me to convincingly bet thim with that negative hanging on his back.  I lost alot of money on that Baffert horse (i can\'t remember his name) in the 99 Classic at gulfstream who had the same problem.  He was awesome in CA but when he shipped he was bad.  That led to Cat Thief, Budroyale, Golden Missile, Chester House superfecta that paid tons.

Point is, he\'s 50/50 to run out of the money, can you say the same thing about St. Liam???

[NoCarolinaTony]

Saint Liam is the best 9F horse in the world. He has only tried 10F once and was by far his worst race in the past two years.

NC Tony

\"Saint Liam is the best 9F horse in the world. He has only tried 10F once and was by far his worst race in the past two years.\"

To me this is the key to the race.

His only attempt at 10F was pretty poor. IMHO, you can even make a little case that in a couple of his 9F races he didn\'t look like a 10F horse (prior to getting really good). However, that poor effort did come on a ship out to CA. Plenty of horses throw in a dud making that ship without it being an indication of anything. He was pretty much toast in that race before they even ran 9F. It\'s not like he tired in the last 70 yards. I\'m confused enough to not know how I\'m going to play that race yet. I can\'t see taking him at a very short price, but I think he\'s the best horse if 10F is within his range to deliver a top effort. I\'m hoping he draws a far outside post. Then I\'ll feel better about betting against him.        

[NoCarolinaTony]

Im with you on this race. All of the big 3 have legit questions about them. and I am going to wait until the PP and Jockeys are listed. It will be an interesting race for sure. I will be hoping that \"Parochialism\" in wageing will effect the odds to some extent.

NC Tony

[kev]

I don\'t look at it as a distance problem for him, hell it\'s only what another what 1F you think that caused him to run up the track like that?? I saw a 0-2-X pattern coming into that SA race for him. Just ran the -6 and then a -0.2 and then a -4 if that wasn\'t sitting him up for a off race I don\'t know what it was. RHT only earned a 1pt better fig than he did, SL had more weight and was wider in that race. SL got a better fig than Borrego he had 115lbs and SL had 122lbs.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Bet him then. Good luck.

I\'m sure he can be an in the money horse so I\'m not tossing him out completely, I just think he\'s not running at the end of his 9F races, he\'s hanging on for dear life  he\'s life or death at 10F. His Tomlinsons for the distance are quite weak at 272. We all know Peace Rules was not a 10F horse and that one Kicked his ass last year at 9F.  As for his pattern comming in, he had significant time off before the Donn  so his pattern should factor in his rest as well. Although he did beat RIM and Eddington at that time both were comming in off layoffs with RIM pointing for the Dubai Classic. The ship to Cali was probably very tough on him so he does have an excuse, but Dutrow is a shrewd guy, why has he not run him 10F other than that one? The Foster came up light as he beat Eurosilver (A Big Nobody) and Perfect Drift (Always a Bridesmaid). Dutrow felt the need to use a rabbit to insure a victory against Commentator.  Can he win, sure. Will he be a value play? No way. I think there are enough questions to seek value elsewhere.

NC Tony

[scottv]

I like your reasoning.  Part of the problem here is that so many horses have a knock, and most of them appear to slow to win.  The other problem I have is finding pace here.  Not any frontrunners to speak of that are fast enough to cause a hot pace for Borrego, Cnation, Oratorio, Shackleton etc.  

That keeps me looking at Liam, RHTen

who do you like?

[big ant]

He drew the far outside that day in Cali off an effort, and at even money he was the biggest toss of all time;he was wide both turns, but even if he had a dream trip he was getting beat that day;This horse needs time between effots. I think that Bailey tried to save some last time(I have no idea what he ran that day # wise), but if it was an effort i\'m not sure seven weeks is enough for him to recover and run well at a distance he is suspect at. The other thing to consider in this race is that it isn\'t around two turns, and i think that changes things considerably;I think they will go fast early.

[kev]

I never said I was betting him, I\'m not tossing him out of my play\'s, my point is it\'s one race he ran at 10.0, you mean to tell me if the woodward was 10.0 he would have lost? or any of his other races in which he won?? I think if he looses sat. it\'s going to be cause he wasn\'t ready to fire that day, what if he had a pattern that looked good to you he was going to run his -6.0 would the distance stop you?? It\'s only an extra what 12/13 seconds??
Let\'s look at those Tom. distance figs.
1. A Bit O\'Gold is 3-2-1-0 at this distance and has a 264
2. Borrego is 6-2-1-1 has a 229
3. Flower Alley 3-1-0-0 has a 254
Hell Volponi had a 205 coming in the BC the year he won.
Other\'s in the race are ok on the rating\'s, some are not. I never look at those things anyway\'s. I have a question about those if you do use them, in the sprint they have a rating and all of them seem to be high, why is that?? Are they more for longer races??

[kev]

Oh, those Tom.\'s figs that your talking about are those the same in the DRF?? That\'s what I was looking at.

[Michael D.]

SL doesn\'t finish that well, but if bailey gets him in a nice stalking position in the clear, three wide or so, he probably buries these by the quarter pole. he could finish in :26 or :27 and they will still be running for second. the danger is that SL faces some adversity and doesn\'t get to relax. what happens if he\'s stuck in behind horses in mid pack and has to make a wide sweeping move to win it? at 9/5 in a fourteen horse field, you would like to see at least one rough trip victory on his resume...... how about a bit\'o gold. TG has last 10f dirt race, the one that went in 2:07.2, pretty darn fast (two lengths faster than tiznow\'s \'01 BC run, and nearly six lengths faster than tiznow\'s \'00 BC run). i guess you could include this guy at 50-1.  

[NoCarolinaTony]

 First I am not espousing the virtues of Tomlinson figures here. They are one tool. The Tomlinson\'s are only good if the horses sire has a lot of history. We know St. Ballado has a lot of history to draw from. Volponi who I bet, had 10F history and 12F History on Turf btw.  Crytoclearance his sire has bred many a 10F winner. I\'m doubting your Tomlinson for Volponi. I\'ll look it up later.

Anyway, Kev, Have you ever run yourself? Its only another 660 feet or 230 yards? After running a mile the last 1320 feet is what seperates the winners fom the losers. The extra 1F doesn not mean it\'s an automatic 12-13 seconds at that stage of the race. It\'s a velocity kind of thing at that stage of the race. SL usually finishes the last furlong in 13 and change while RHT usually finished in 12 and change. Also a -6 at 9F does not mean it will be a -6 at 10F.

I really like this horse Starcraft some along with RHT. I am waiting for the TG seminar to finalize my bets and see who drops out between now and then.
Again I am not saying St. Liam cannot win, but I don\'t think he will be a good value Bet.

NC Tony