The Classic

[NoCarolinaTony]

Michael I\'ve been looking at that number too. Am waiting to see what TGJB has to say about that one in the seminar. Would be a potential value play at those odds.

NC Tony

[kev]

That\'s cool, I think RHT is going to be about the same price of SL maybe even the fav. that\'s all people are talking about on TV RHT and how good he looks and the hype around this horse, which I think he could go either way, he runs a new top and backs up off that -2.1, no pairing up for him. Also I knew you was going to ask something on the line about does that extra 1F thing really matter, ok maybe if the horse is in an close battle, but like I said that you never answer, what if you though he was going to run the -6.0 or a -4.0, would it really matter? Also if you look up the number on Voloni I was looking at the 2002 form I have here it might have change by now. Also Voloni ran 10.0 on the turf 1 time on fin. 4th beaten 5 3/4 and ran 12.0 fin. 3rd beaten by 2L.

[Michael D.]

Kev,
SL is around 8/5 now. RHT between 7/2 and 4/1. If they scrape the track, SL will go off at 6/5 or 7/5. If it\'s playing heavy like it\'s been, maybe closer to 2/1, with RHT and Borrego picking up the slack.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Kev,

With the race being run at Belmont, many of the hometown bettors who may be sitting on the fence will go with the one they know St. Liam over RHT for all the reason you mentioned earlier. TVG guys are west coast guys so they always lean to the left some. Borrego will also get significant play because of Big wins on both coasts in Big races. I\'ll wait and see what the odds are before I make a play anyway. Right now Im thinking RHT will be a better value play and more logical winner at this distance than SL. Sometimes I wait too long to wager - sometimes to a fault of almost getting shut out.

Now if you can guarantee me St. Liam runs a -6 at 10F Im betting the college fund. No one else \"can\" run that other than St. Liam and I don\'t think he does at 10F.

One other thing, while we give St. Liam a built in excuse comming from Post 11 in the Cali 10F race, RHT came from Post 10 in same race. And we had been dissing Cali horses all year etc but Who won the derby? What did Cali horses do on BC preview day at belmont? Food for thought.

NC Tony

[kev]

Your right about the east coast thing and people betting SL, whose the wise guy horse so far??

[NoCarolinaTony]

I\'m not sure there is a wise guy horse yet as the Public Handicappers have until Wed to make there prognostications.

NC Tony

[bdhsheets]

Say what you will, many quality horses head west and fail miserably for whatever reason. Perhaps the constant tremors spook some of them. I\'ll give SL a pass for that one.

[TGJB]

I also questioned that Bit O\'Gold #, so we reviewed everyone out of the race, and it looks right.

[kev]

For right now, it could change after Wed.

Saint L. his sheets just looks like he runs another -2
Borrego I know some horses will pair up their big jump up number, but on 4 weeks rest I think he back\'s up off of that last #
F.Alley at very best might come back around and run a -0.2
Sir Shack. I\'m adding this guy onto my Pick 4, something about his line and that -2.2 from back in Feb. is calling my name.
P.Drift at best a -0.2
RHT one of two things he\'ll do, run a -4 or better or bounce off of that -2.1
Super F. nothing great looking about his sheet
Sun King is a three old and has a -1 and get\'s a weight break, but right now he\'s on the bubble for me.
Suave I\'ve already talked about him and he could be sitting on a big one.
C.Nation another one who could run a -0.2 at best.

Right now I\'ve got: SL, Sir, RHT, Suave. I could add in Sun King depends on how many I take in the other three races.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Kev,

Right about now it looks like this to me. I can see St. Liam winning this race 20% RHT 20% (waiting on foot),Flower Alley 15%,Super Frolic 10% (His race style is to press pace and being this race doesn\'t have a lot of early runners), I can see this one with a chance in the end and his figs Fit, Suave 10%, Borrego 10%, Starcraft 10% and the rest the remaining runners 15% with Oratorio, Bit o Gold and Sun King the best of that lot.

It\'s not  so cut and dried in my mind. I am anxiously awaiting the seminar to see if it provides insight that might provide some tie breakers for me. Right now I\'m thinking better value with RHT. I probaly have Super Frolic  and Starcraft a little higher than most.

NC Tony

[jimbo66]

Tony,

If that is your odds line, then RHT is not \"value\".  You give him a 20% chance.,  He won\'t be more than 4-1, which is 20%.

Based on your odds line the value plays would be Flower Alley and Super Frolic.,  You give Flower Alley 15%, which is a bout 6-1.  I bet him earlier tonight at 26 to 1.  Super Frolic you give 10% which is 9-1 and he will be 25-1 on Saturday, maybe more (sorry Jerry).

[NoCarolinaTony]

Jimbo,

I won\'t accept less than 4-1 on RHT, but you got me thinking now. Perhaps the play is Flower Alley. I can\'t see anyone else really with both proven figs and potential upside.  Is by Distorted Humor so will like mositure in the track and does have early speed which I hope he can control better than he did in last.

Super Frolic style might just work if it all plays out right and I feel could certainly be an exacta/tri/super type horse. The Deep closers may be at a disadvantage in this one.

Thanks.......

NC Tony

[ronwar]

I watched the replay of the race on youbet and the announcer mentioned a strong wind.  With his style and a return to the -2(distance shouldn\'t be a problem) I think Bit \'O Gold fits and certainly would spice up a super

[HP]

I\'m with you Ronwar...50-1 and up looks good to me in this field.  

It wouldn\'t surprise me if you get your 4-1 and up on Rock Hard Ten.  

It\'s raining now (has been raining HARD all night) but it\'s supposed to lighten up later in the week into Saturday.  Big difference between a soaked Belmont and a drying out-type Belmont...  

HP