BC Sprint

[richiebee]

The BC Sprint, the final leg of the early P4, will hopefully be a meaningful race to me. I\'m hoping to be alive.

Yesterday\'s racing at Bel showed the great value in P4s. The 7th race winner, Rahy\'s Appeal, paid $13.80, followed by Friendly Island (second favorite, $8.60), Win with Beck (favorite, $5.30) and Spite the Devil ($20.40), combined for a P4 of $3927. The parlay was about $1600.

Back to the BC. I project Lost in the Fog to be about 7/5 - 8/5, and will be looking to beat him. As has been mentioned, the key to beating him is challenging him in the first quarter, and for the first time this year,he will be facing horses capable of putting some pressure on him. These horses are Pomeroy and Silver Train.

Pomeroy flashed brilliant speed in two consecutive races at 6f, then missed the break in the Vosburgh. Co owned by Michael Tabor, any pressure Pomeroy exerts on LITF will increase Tabor\'s Lion Tamer\'s chances.

Silver Train ran a quick 6f race at Belmont early in July, going a half in 44.2 and 5/8ths in 55.4, and he could conceivably be a pace rival for LITF.

Either one of these 2, with a good break, could put pressure on LITF and Russell Baze that they have been spared until this point. Could either of Pomeroy or Silver Train survive a duel with LITF? Not likely, with the more likely of the 2 being Pomeroy.

I think the 2 animals parked right behind the speed, Battle Won and Wildcat Heir have the best chance of the upset. If Battle Won hadn\'t run in a turf prep, he would be coming into the race off of the enigmatic (to me at least) Pair/Pair/ Pair pattern, which tends to assure more than a 60% chance of a pair or a new top.

I will watch the workout tab closely to monitor Wildcat Heir\'s activity. Over the years (this is a subjective, and not scientific observation) I have noticed that Ben Perkins\' charges tend to put forth their best efforts off a quick 3f or half mile work prior to their races; if WH were to turn in a moderate or slow work this week I would like his chances less.

Deep closers: Lion Tamer and Imperialism. Lion Tamer hasn\'t won a 6f race since January 03; Imperialism has never won a 6f race.

Not the strongest Sprint renewal, as Jimbo has pointed out. There are only 2 Grade 1 winners at 6f in the race.. Taste of Paradise and Wildcat Heir. Taste of Paradise, like Riskaverse, shows no inclination to win two consecutive races.

So my early p4 looks like this:

Juv Fillies: Ex Caelis, Folklore and Original Spin
Juvenile:    First (Lasix) Samurai
F/M Turf:    Favourable Terms, Ouija Board, Wend, Wonder Again (soft/yielding
             only).
Sprint:      Battle Won,Imperialism, Lion Tamer, Pomeroy, Wildcat Heir

[shanahan]

that is really a helluva post - I think you nailed this and could not agree more, although I had not thought about it that way...thank you for the observations.

1. LITF relaxed behind a horse in the Swale stakes at 7F and ran very well. He is not a one dimensional speed horse. There was just no one that could run with him in a lot of these races because he was so superior.  

2. Gilchrist recently said that he didn\'t want the same thing to happen to LITF that happened to his last speedy BC Sprint horse, Soviet Problem. That one dueled and go caught in the last few jumps.

I wouldn\'t count on this horse getting buried in a duel. If he does duel, his opponent(s) can be counted on to be off the board.  

[richiebee]

CH:

  Considering I am trying to beat LITF, I would like nothing better than to see his connections try to take him off the pace, to \"relax\" him as you would say.

  He sat behind \"A (1) (a single) Horse\" in the Swale. His sitting behind one horse does not qualify him as a stalker or a closer.

  If they wanted to get him to relax, you would have thought they would have \"tinkered\' with him in one of the \"exhibition\" races he ran at one of those leaky roof tracks in the West, not in the BC.

Richiebee,

I\'m not sure what their plans are for the race. I guess they would rather have the lead. I just don\'t see them comitting suicide to get it based on the comments I have read. I also don\'t see the horse coming from mid pack or anything like that. My guess is that if someone is extremely aggressive about going for it, they will try to sit second or just behind the duelers and get involved in the 2nd quarter instead of the first.

[NoCarolinaTony]

I really Hope he gets the Outside Post to just complicate matters a little bit more.

NC Tony

NCT,

That would certainly complicate matters.

I know that a lot of people are looking to beat him at a short price, but there is no Xtra Heat, Caller One, Meafara, Safely Kept, Very Subtle, Smile, Pine Tree Lane etc.. in this race. Without another very high quality speed in there, he could easily get involved with the pace without it taking too much out of him. A world case 400M meter runner won\'t get used up dueling with a high school runner. Based on what I am seeing, unless someone goes on a suicide mission, I think to beat him you are going to simply have to be better than him.  

[richiebee]

NCT

There are 5 days left. One or two more scratches and there wont be an outside.
 
In terms of seeing him beat, my preference would be to see him inside.  

Hey, I\'m not knocking this guy. I just need to beat him at 7/5 (would he be 4/5 with Bailey or Johnny V or Nakatani?). If he wins the BC, even by a whisker, he is Horse of The Year and Champion Sprinter IMO, and you can give Afleet Alex top 3YO.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Didn\'t we have Tabor/Biancone send out a Rabbit in the Derby supposedly to benefit Bandini? Could use the same tactic here as you mentioned previously. That may be the only hope to beat LITF.

A Negative -2 to -2.5 should get it done in this race. Who is capable of doing that besides LITF? Wildcat Heir, Pomeroy, Battle Won, Tast of Pardise, Lion Tamer and possibly Ellusive Jazz. the rest are throw outs (Including Gygistar).

NC Tony

[jimbo66]

Richiebee

I also like Battle Won and Wildcat Heir, but I don\'t know about Silver Train and Pomeroy pressing LITF.  Silver Train did have that one fast paced race, but even in that race, he stalked a little bit.  He is also coming off a one mile race, not exactly the way to sharpen your speed.  As for Pomeroy, speed horses that run a huge number, then come back and don\'t even have their customary early speed in the next race, worry me.  I don\'t think you can expect a bounce back and I don\'t think the horse will have the zip to run with LITF early.

I agree with Class that a horse has to BEAT LITF by being faster than him.  The pace and trip likely favor LITF because this BC Sprint has less early speed than any BC Sprint I can remember, except for the year that Reraise won.  

So, who can run legitimately faster than LITF (and not have too much ground loss).  I think that is Battle Won and Wildcat Heir.  But you need a price on either won, which you might not get.  WH is as low as 7-1 offshore, when I thought he would be 15-1 or so.  Battle Won is around 8-1 offshore, not a great price for a horse that hasn\'t won since May.  

I think you might be wrong about the post draw.  If you want to be LITF you want him drawing outside, not inside.  

Good luck,

Jim

[beyerguy]

Here is a quote from Dutrow regarding Silver Train:

\"Dutrow said the exercise rider told him Silver Train was \"slipping and sliding a bit\" during the work. Dutrow believes Silver Train has a \"very minor\" issue in his hind end.

Sounds like a job for Dr. Allday!

[elkurzhal]

http://www.drf.com/news/article/69708.html
\"Silver Train worked five furlongs in 58.40 at Aqueduct under exercise rider Gustavo Rodriguez on Monday. Afterward, Dutrow voiced some concern about the 3-year-old Silver Train\'s physical condition.

\"He worked well, maybe too fast, and then the exercise rider said the horse felt funny in behind when he came off the track,\" said Dutrow. \"We\'ve dealt with similar issues with him in the past. Fortunately, my veterinarian, Dr. [Stephen] Allday is here so we will attack it and hopefully we will hit the right button and he will be ready to go. We will work on it up until entry time on Wednesday before making a final decision. If we can work it out we will be good. If not, he won\'t run.\" \"

[fasteddie]

\'Fog is one of those rare ones that can run his 2nd quarter as fast as his first, and that\'s a huge edge. If he draws the rail, he may have to gun, and his \"poorest\" race was here on Belmont day, but that was at 7F, and he withstood a lot of pressure. His best wins this, as the field is a little weak this year.
Wildcat Heir is most likely to upset, but don\'t be surprised if he\'s under 5-1 as he may be the \"wiseguy\'s\" horse!