Short Priced Throwouts

[HP]

She fired big, and then ran two bad ones off that...  Look at it again.  She\'s stretching out for the first time off a top.  I won\'t quibble over the odds line...  Not for me.  If the price was GREAT, could she hang around for a piece underneath in tri/supe-land?  Maybe.  HP

[HP]

P-DUB,

Just ask about whichever one you want.  I can\'t really write the whole explanation of each one right now in between work.  Sorry.  HP

[jimbo66]

You are right P-Dub, lists without any reasoning aren\'t worth much.

Here is my list of short priced \"bet againsts\".

1.  Ouija Board is #1 on this list.  She was not the best horse last year, but rather got the best trip.  The win enhanced her already overblown reputation (her numbers are not that fast).  Now, this year, she has had a spotty campaign and by her own connections admission, she may not be the horse she was last year.  I would liked to have bet against \"the horse she was last year\", betting against a lesser version at a very short price, make betting against Ouija Board, the best betting opportunity of the day (IMHO)  The \"livest\" contenders in my mind are Wonder Again and Wend.  WA ran her usual decent race last time, but has actually run several faster earlier in the year.  Wend got a nice figure despite an awful break.  The horse has tactical speed and with a clean break could sit a trip and has \"number power\".  She is lightly raced enough that she could move forward here, while others likely cannot.  (she might not even need a forward move to win, if she draws inside and breaks clean though)

2.  I don\'t think Adeiu will be first choice, but will probably be 2nd choice or at least take money.  She is slow.  She is running 7\'s on Tgraph, while Folklore and Sensation can run 2\'s.  Gotta best against Adeiu in all slots.

Those first two are \"throwouts\" for me.  All the way out of the top 4 slots in the exotics.

There are other favorites who you can bet against for value reasons, but they don\'t classify as \"throw outs\".

1.  Lost in the Fog.  As previously stated, the horse is very consistent, the race lacks much early zip, and it will surprise nobody if this guy wins.  But at 6-5 or possibly less, in a 12 horse race in which he is NOT the fastest horse, you can bet against him.  I think the horses to bet are Wildcat Heir and Battle Won.  WH has that negative 5, although he has fitness issues.  BW has 4 races in the negative 2 and change range.  Ran well last time turf to dirt, and if he draws inside has enough early gas to get a \"Speightstown\" type of trip.

2.  Leriodesanimaux.  I know I am contradicting an earlier post I made after the Atto Mile, when I said I wouldn\'t keep throwing money against this horse, but I might one more time if the turf is not soft.  Artie Schiller has two races that fit nicely here and are faster than all of Leroidesanimaux\'s races, except the Atto Mile.  The fact that the Atto Mile was so fast, combined with Frankel\'s poor record in the Breeders Cup, and the likely very short price of Leriodes, I think you can justify a bet against him.  Artie at 8-1 or so, without an outside post, with good turf, is a bet for me.

3.  Ashado. Tougher to bet against a horse that has so many numbers that win the Distaff this year.  I just don\'t like the pattern of the awful race at Saratoga, followed back by another really fast race last time, where she seemed to be getting leg weary at the end.  The pace scenario will not be in her favor in the Distaff, as Healthy Addiction, STellar Jayne and Yolanda B Too, all have speed.  She likely won\'t be sitting off a collapsing pace setter through moderate fractions.  I think that with the honest pace scenario, we will see Society Selection\'s best race this time.  I know she hasn\'t put up the big number yet that wins this and betting her to run a new top after 18 starts is not brilliant betting, but I think she might.  She likes Belmont and will be flying at the end, if she can get the right trip.  It could be like the Alabama of last year, a fresh Society Selection runs down Stellar Jayne and Ashado, after they duel each other into defeat.

There is no \"favorite\" to bet against in the Turf, so no comment there.  In the Juvenile, you have to respect the favorite and there is no compelling reason to bet against the favorite off the three straight 1\'s.  The only reason I might bet is if Henny Hughes\' price is very attractive, relative to First Samurai. I don\'t think there is much between them, in fact, HH has the fastest race of the two.  He was compromised by the pace moreso in his last also.  I see 8-5 on First Samuria offshore and 5-1 on Henny Hughes.  If that holds up on race day, Henny Hughes would be worth a bet IMO.  As for the Classic, if Saint Liam draws outside, it could be tough.  But I don\'t necessarily believe the 1 1/4 was the problem with the Santa Anita race, so this race being 1 1/4 is not what will beat him, IMO.  I also agree with the poster who said that RHT and SL might be co-favorites.  That is not the price that is available offshore right now, RHT is 3-1 and SL is 8-5, but I find very few people who like SL, so I can see them both around 2-1.  The classic is either a race to try a complete bomb or to single SL in the pick-4 IMO.  

Good luck

[Wrongly]

Jimbo

The BC \"win enhanced her already overblown reputation.\"  What?  The Filly has won 6 of her 10 starts, 9 ITM finishes only off the board finish was a G1 against colts.  Finish 3rd in the ARC last year.  Heck, last year she should have taken on the boys in the Turf.  Overblown reputation, come on.

That being said is she the same Filly; maybe not, but she not a toss!  

[dlf]

Almost wrote exactly the same post, Wrongly. I hope this backlash against Ouija Board continues...with any luck, she won\'t even be the favorite! OK, she picked up 5 pounds in last year\'s race that she won\'t be getting this time, and I know that is worth about 1.5 points. But I urge all the doubters to look at the video of her race in last year\'s BC...she swung 3-4w around the far turn, and disposed of Film Maker quite easily. (Also notice how Wonder Again hangs, and fails to get by Film Maker.) Does anyone here really believe if she was carrying 123 instead of 118 that she wouldn\'t have won anyway?
As Dunlop said, \"Maybe not the same filly\", but definitely not a throwout.

[TGJB]

Wrongly-- I think you just made Jimbo\'s point, which is that her accomplishments and therefore reputation exceed her ability, as measured by figures.

I haven\'t watched the replay of her last race yet, but I think you have to be skeptical of a horse when they are getting bet based on performances that occurred last year. She didn\'t come back very well and that last was against much weaker. It\'s a leap to simply assume she\'s the same horse. She hasn\'t demonstrated it yet. As the favorite, that probably makes her a bet against. At a big price, you start noticing things like she was only a 3YO last year and could be better. :-)

[ezgoer89]

As far as judging Euros on TG figs, I have relatively low confidence.  Sacrilige to say this... oh well.  I could fill a binder with the sheets of supposedly slower Euro horses who have won and/or run well in BC races as well as Graded races around the country.  Just like Beyer had no success making figs on Australian racing, I don\'t think you can use the method TG or any other fig makin services utilizes in American racing and apply it to Euro racing.  It\'s slamming a square into a circle.  The racing is just too different.

Anyone remember Domedriver, L\'Ancresse, Six Perfections, Antonius Pius, etc?  Ouija Board has had physical issues this year, but certainly ran a huge race last out and appears to be right. She threw a 114+ TF at 12f and ran away from a 13 horse field.  She\'d never ship if not 100% and on her best, she smokes these horses, just like last year.  I don\'t think for one second she\'s going to be short odds, not with Intercontinental, Megahertz, and Wonder Again.  Beware.

[TGJB]

EZ-- give me some examples from the last couple of years of European horses who  ran more than a point or so different numbers here than we gave them in Europe. I\'m not talking about lightly raced ones-- show me stake horses.

[jimbo66]

Wrongly and DLF,

I assume you use figures, since you are on this board.  Ouija Board has done all those things you said, and her top is a \"3\".  Her two races this are a 15 and a 4.5.

Wonder Again has several races in the 1.5 range.  Wend has tactical speed and got back to her 2.5 top last time.  Like I said, you can make a case for a move forward, but a pairup with a trip might win.  Wend is 10-1 or more, most likely.

And \"yes\", I really believe that Oiuja Board did not run the fastest race in last year\'s F&M turf.  She was visually impressive, but with the weight and great ride she got from Fallon, she didn\'t get the best figure.  

How many times do we get to bet a 14 horse field, where a horse who will be heavy favorite (3-2 or so) HAS NOT RUN A RACE THIS YEAR THAT WILL WIN?  Her lifetime best is probably not enough either.  Oiuja Board needs a new top to win.  

I stand by my original post, betting against Oiuja Board is the best betting opportunity of the day.  

[jimbo66]

Ezgoer,

Ouija Board is a best price 8-5 right now in the futures book.  You don\'t think she is going to be a short price?  What is your definition of a short price?

In a 14 horse field, Ouija Board will not be more than 2-1 and probably closer to 3-2.

Intercontinental is not going to draw money in this race.  The horse is 15-1 right now everywhere.  Wonder Again will probably be 6-1 or so, with a decent post.  

Megahertz will draw money and will be the likely second choice, but she is a bet against also.  She has a couple of 2.5 races, but you know she will lose ground in this race, dropping back to last.  With all the races she has had, she isn\'t likely to run a new top as a 6 year old.  So, on her best, she is as fast as Wend, Wend is a lightly raced 4 year old with tactical speed and will be about three times the price.  

jimbo,

Please stop making the case for Wend being a good value. Thank you. :-)

[dlf]

TJGB: OK, Jerry, I\'ll bite...here are some examples:

Six Perfections: Previous European Top: 5   First U.S. Start: 2 1/4
Powerscourt:     Previous Euro Top: 2 1/4   First U.S. Start: -0.5
Magistretti:     Previous Euro Top: 4       First U.S. Start: 1.5
L\'Ancresse:      Previous Euro Top: 6 1/4   First U.S. Start: 3.5
Storming Home:   Previous Euro Top: 2       First U.S. Start: 0
Domedriver:      Previous Euro Top: 3.5     First U.S. Start: 2
Rock of Gib:     Previous Euro Top: 2.75    First U.S. Start: 0.5

Now I know some of these were 3 year olds who may have been improving anyway (6 Perfections, Rock), and they probably all got Lasix, but I think this is what E-Z Goer (and I, for that matter) are suspicious about. I\'m not claiming to know anything about making figures...I purchase your product, and for the most part, am happy with it. But I do see things which make me raise my eyebrows.

Again, I\'m no expert (been handicapping for less than 10 years), but what about last year\'s BC F&M Turf? You gave Ouija and WA the same fig....WA\'s trip was not that bad (watch the replay, don\'t read the charts), and Ouija was wide on the far turn. I believe that, according to TG, the 5 LB allowance Ouija received is worth about 3-4 lengths at the distance. In the actual race, Ouija finished less than 2 lengths in front of WA.   If my interpretation of the TG numbers (beaten lengths vs. points vs. weight) is correct, at equal weights, WA would have beaten Ouija by 1-2 lengths according to TG dogma, no?

It just seems overyly dogmatic and implausible to me that 5 LBs of weight was the difference between Ouija winning by 2 and losing by 2.

[jimbo66]

Alright Class,

I will shut my mouth, but don\'t worry, nobody is listening and those that are, disagree with me.

i am trying to decide if 13-1 right now, (with the risk of a scratch), is worth betting, or if better will be available on race day.

[TGJB]

dlf-- 5 pounds= 1 point = 2 lengths at 1 1/4 miles, not 3-4 lengths.

Several of those horses were from more than 2 years ago, and we have adjusted what we are doing since then. Give me a list of ALL the Euros who ran in the BC in 03 and 04, and we\'ll post a file with the numbers they had coming in and what they ran. They were unbelievably accurate last year, by memory.

Powerscourt-- you look at his form with and without lasix and think he should be getting the same numbers?

And yes, some improve, especially the young ones, and especially since so many are first time lasix-- but what we find (and what you will see just by looking at the pre-entry sheets of ones that have already run there and here, like Flip Flop, Karen\'s Caper, Luas Line, Mona Lisa, Ouija Board, Sundrop, Funfair, Ace), is that those figures hold up VERY well.