Probably Final Pop Quiz

[TGJB]

The seminar is taking a lot of time, and for the most part I\'m preaching to the choir, so this might be my last pop quiz about the Ragozin numbers for the BC horses, at least until after the seminar is taped Wednesday.

I\'ve touched on this one before, but I want to make sure everybody gets it.

Borrego won the Jockey Club Gold Cup by 4 1/2 lengths, destroying a field that included Graded SW Suave, Sun King, Flower Alley, etc.

A.P. Arrow ran the same day in the Super Derby. He was coming off a neck win in a nw1x allowance, and that was good enough to make him 5-1 against a very weak field. He ran second in the derby by a neck to N.Y. Bred The Daddy, with the first six horses being seperated by 4 lengths-- the others in that group being Nolan\'s Cat, Military Major, Smokescreen, and Kilates Kiss.

According to Ragozin,

a) Borrego ran 10 lengths better than A.P. Arrow and the rest of the Super Derby horses.

b) The Super Derby went really fast, and A.P Arrow ran almost as fast as Borrego on a day Borrego crushed that GI field.

c) A.P. Arrow ran faster than Borrego by 1 1/2 points.


That\'s right, sports fans. If you use Ragozin\'s figures, you are accepting the following-- A.P. Arrow would have gotten 5 pounds from Borrego as a 3yo in the Gold Cup, and overall would have beaten him by 5 lengths on the day he buried that field (and yes, we all agree Borrego could have run faster, but as it was he won by daylight). And A. P. Arrow would have beaten Suave by 10, and Sun King by 15 lengths.

In fact, since the sixth horse in the Super Derby was only beaten 4 lengths, The Daddy, Nolan\'s Cat, Military Major, Smokescreen, and Kilates Kiss ALL would have finished ahead of Borrego. and beat Sun King, Flower Alley etc. by 10 lengths or more.

That makes sense, right? Wonder what Sun King would have gone off in the Super Derby...

By the way, since we\'re on the subject-- Ragozin also has Suave running 3 points FASTER winning a 50 optional claimer/nw3x at AP by 3 lengths over Courthouse and Step Right In, than he did running second in the Jockey Club. Meaning, if he had run back to the AP race, he would have finished 6 lengths better in the Gold Cup-- a race he lost by 4 1/2.

[beyerguy]

Sometimes bad numbers will get you lucky, I\'m assuming Military Major looked awful good on The Sheets Friday night in Oklahoma.  

I am not saying they have it right by any means, they are so far off it is *almost* laughable.  Laughable, that is, if you didn\'t know people were paying good money for numbers like that.

[scavsiu8]

I am new here, but I have to say that you really know your \"ish\" and I appreciate the fact that you are so accessible. The way you just explained is mind-blowing yet 100% true. I can\'t believe they are so off on that and it is why I have choosen to learn TG and stick to it...

[TGJB]

BeyGuy-- they got the Super Derby pretty much dead on. The problem is the Gold Cup-- they have it 5 or 6 points too slow.

Yes, their figures have become awful. I have made an issue over the last few years of their sloppy work-- beaten lengths wrong in the 04 Derby, lots of ground loss errors-- and refusal to address or fix the mistakes. But this is something else, not mistakes, and it\'s important to understand the context--

THESE ARE THE BIGGEST RACES, AT MAJOR TRACKS, THE ONES WITH CONSISTENT HORSES-- WHAT\'S HAPPENING TO THE DAY TO DAY FIGURES?

AND-- NEW YORK IS DONE BY RAGOZIN HIMSELF-- BY ALL ACCOUNTS THE BEST THEY HAVE.

[beyerguy]

Gotcha, I misunderstood thinking they had them both wrong.  Wow, if they got that one right, it boggles the mind how far off they are on Borrego.

[jimbo66]

So, you are leaving out the question on your quiz about the Turf race and Shakespeare\'s number?

Somebody on the other board is asking how come Shakespeare got a 5 and Gun Salute a 3.

I don\'t think he will get an answer.

It is interesting that Len takes the approach of ignoring his customers, when they question numbers.  You would think somebody over there would take the time to at least explain the rationale or reasoning, hoping to convert new customers or retain existing ones.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- I asked the Gun Salute/Shakespeare question as pop quiz #3, yesterday. You must have taken a day off.

Nice analysis of the B.C. You should do more of that.