ANALYSIS

[congaree1]

Pick #6

F/M Turf
Wend-WonderAgain-Megahertz

Sprint - Lost in The Fog

Mile- Valixir- Leroidesanimaux

Distaff- Ashado

Tufr- Shakespeare-Silverfoot

Classic- Rock Hard Ten-Saint Liam

Ok we have been posting about the CUP for a couple of weeks now, and my conclusion is the races appear so complicated, because all the horses are fast and it\'s hard to seperate the contenders from the pretenders:

F/M Turf- I would never like Megahertz in any year but now, their is only one European in the race that is a threat/i think if Ouija Board doesn\'t fire, i believe Megahertz will inhale this field.You have to hold your breath but she does like to WIN.

Sprint- I can\'t wait to see this guy make his 3/8 move on the cripples in this field. Other horses have run faster but thid guy runs fsat and sound all the time. The only horse who had a 3/8 move like him was Kona Gold. 11 in a row.

Mile- Artie was the horse a weel ago but i have a funny feeling he will be overbet again! Easy wise guy horse! Frankel gets his picture again.

Distaff-Ashado- Alot of people are picking on her and i don\'t no why, she is at Belmont and has already proved herslf against this bunch. This race usually dominated by the favorite.

Turf- I have a funny feeling the Europeans are tailing off Bago has not been in the winners circle in some time and although Azamour has stong figs, he also has physical problems.I don\'t think Jerry will have him wide again after the scare in his last.

Classic- Saint Liam is far and away better then this field. This horse is a true freak, the only knock is Dutrow. Ghostzapper ran the scarriest race i\'ve ever witnest last year and this guy nosed with the ZAP. If he doesn\'t fire Rock Hard Ten i think is fast enough comming out of the one hole to get there, and his size will love Belmont.


Good Luck To All!

Con

[jimbo66]

Congaree,

You don\'t have to worry too much about falling off that limb you are NOT on.

Six races you mention and you like 5 chalks.

[congaree1]

Does not mean i will play anyof the races.The bottom line is every body is looking for value, who says that Lerio won\'t be 7-2 Ashado 5-2. Again i may not play a race all day if the price isn\'t right.For example the Sprint is filled with nothing but cripples, this may be the worst sprint division in history. Forget about the numbers and fig, LITF is healthy and sound and has more class then the whole field put together, he should be 6-5 easy. My picks are based on what i see not what i will bet.

THANKS CON

[jimbo66]

Congaree,

Good luck with getting 7-2 on Leroides.  Why settle for 7-2?  Hope for 10-1

The sprint is NOT filled with cripples.  There are a couple of unsound horses in the race, one of which has run one of the fastest figs of all time, and he ran it fresh, which he will be again on Saturday.  Oh, and he will be value at a square price.  

You are on the wrong board to talk about \"class\".  What does that mean?

We can revisit your view on the Sprint AFTER the race on Saturday.  There are 11 horses in the race and LITF is one of the fast ones, but NOT the fastest one.  Definitely the most consistent, which matters.  So you think he should be 6-5 easy?  I guess that means you give him around a 45% chance to win?  That is one view.  I give him about a 20% chance to win, so I want to bet against him at 6-5.  

He is 10 for 10 and has run fast, but all races except for the Egghead race were run against tin cans, with him unchallenged.  I am not sure if he can run his negative 2 under pressure and I am also not sure that even if he runs his negative 2, that he will win.  So at 6-5, that is good betting opportunity to get value going against IMO.

Good luck.

Jim

[congaree1]

jIM,

 Wildcat will be an underlay because of that super fig,explain to me why he is 10-1 on the morning line. It\'sevident that he ran fast,Bellamy Road ran that fig and so did Commontator. I never get sold on the single fig. I\'m not sure if i will bet the race but if i do i will play>>LITF with Taste of Paradice and Lion Tamer.I keyed Kona Gold with Honest Lady in 99 because i thought Kona was clearly the best in the race. If i can get good value with the two i like to run with LITF i will hammer away, but if not i pass.I only look for consistent horses with consistant figs to play,WCH will not be value,i hope your not thinking he will be 10-1 and over.Good conversation.


Con

[jimbo66]

Congaree,

No, I don\'t think Wildcat Heir will be 10-1 on Saturday.  I bet him at 8.70 to 1 today, offshore.  I think he might be 6-1 or so.

I agree with you on the \"single fig\", if the \"single fig\" leads a horse to be favored, as in the case of Bellamy Road. As a matter of fact, I think that having single big and being underlaid is a good bet against in that case.  But Wildcat Heir won\'t be the favorite and will be a fair price, at least what I define as a fair price.  His race in the Defrancis was also fast, not negative 5, but negative 2 and change.  
 
Kona Gold and Honest lady was a nice exacta.  I bet against Kona Gold that year, because he was favored!  I bet on him the year he ran second to Artax (I think it was Artax).  

But even though I bet against him, Kona Gold was a better favorite in that race, IMO, than LITF is on Saturday.  Kona had run big figs against top competition, while under pressure.  I know \"a figure is a figure is a figure\", but for my money, a negative 2 run under pressure throughout, is better than a negative 2 won in uncontested manner against tin cans.  LITF is an EXCELLENT managed horse.  It is not his fault that there are no good 3 year old sprinters and Egg Head was the only good horse he has beaten.  It also isn\'t his fault that many of the top sprinters are not running Saturday.  But I still think even with the watered won BC Sprint, LITF will not pass the test on Saturday.  And taking him at even money to pass this test is not worth it to me.  

A long time ago, I remember a pretty good handicapper telling me \"never bet a horse as the favorite to do something he has never done before\".  Examples like \"stretching out\" and \"changing surfaces\".  In the case of LITF, this is his first try against older horses and he will be the overwhelming favorite.  I gotta take a stand against.

But I fear him more than Ouija Board, who is a great bet against.

But the best bet against of all on Saturday is Captain Squire in the 1st race.  Morning line favorite, spotting the whole field weight, coming in off paired 3\'s, which make his recent form among the slowest in the race, even BEFORE factoring the weight in.

Good luck

[NoCarolinaTony]

Jimbo,

Very Good Stuff!!! excellent in fact.

NC Tony

[congaree1]

Jimbo,

I agree that Squire is a bet against,Mullins must have this guy on something.I have no idea who will win that race.I really like Megahertz though,kindareminds me of Starine.... And she loves to win!OK it\'s early and i have to go run 3 miles.I run with my friend that is 185lb and i\'m 250 we both run 7 minute miles. How would i look on the sheets caccying so much wait.

Have a good one

Con

[HP]

Re: Megahertz

1)  It\'s not a California Grade II.

2)  Can you trust Solis?  

3)  There are five or six in here as fast on best.

4)  Starine was 13-1.  This one will be...about 6-1.

HP

[spa]

Jimbo...you\'re posting like our old friend Chuckles!!!! First race, bet the Ghost to win late. I can\'t seem to find all these winners in all these races,sooo it\'s Oratorio in the big race. Just read that RHT might be out...that will hurt my price........

[jimbo66]

To me, the 6-1 on Megahertz is not the problem.  The problem there is a big difference between dropping back to last in 5 and 6 horse fields and then circling a bunch of slow California turf fillies, while losing ground, then there is in doing the same thing in a field of 14 very fast horses, almost all of whom would have been favored in those California races.  

Congaree,

As for your figure adjustment, I would say the \"70 pounds over\" would give you a figure adjustment of 14 points, which at 3 miles, is worth maybe 40 lengths.

[congaree1]

40 lengths,hey maybe i should run in the classic.


thanks Jimbo

Con