California Figs

[HP]

I\'m glad the other guys took a whack at this Jimbo.  If Folklore paired his \"2\", you think it\'s impossible that Wild Fit could move up TWO points to a \"4\" to finish second?  As for Stevie Wonderboy, good 2yo horses move up!  Other horses in both juvenile races had jumped up before the BC (some of them have TEN POINT jumps!) why is it so beyond the realm of possibility that the horse jumped up five or six points off the pair (an excellent pattern going in)?  

There are lots of explanations and I don\'t think this indicates the Cali numbers are wrong.  I guess Jerry chose to skip this line for whatever reason...  

I only tried to say I wasn\'t meaning to offend you since I figured you were still pissed about my negative comments about Sensation...

Judging by my reading here it would seem you did well so congratulations...  

HP

[NoCarolinaTony]

Richie,

She closed into Pampered Princess (who\'s previous TG Fig was neg 1) at Keenland against a strong rail/speed bias in her last race. You\'d have to figure/project she would jump up at Belmont. She was certainly sitting on a race. Thank God I boxed that exacta. Nothing like a signer exacta.

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

See my post on Happy Ticket a few weeks ago, She\'s a sprinter who stretched out in her last and ran a huge figure. I thought that effort taxed her. You\'d have to think she might be a \"bounce\" candidate in her second consecutive 9F race. I wasted money on her \"just in case\".

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

Jimbo,

I was in contact thoughout the day, with a few guys (Who everyone on this board would say are pretty sharp handicappers) who also said the same thing. They estimate the socal figs to be about 2 to 3 points to slow compared to the NY east coast  dirt figs and actually handicapped that way. The scales seem to be off. The Derby and Derby day races would be another day that you might use as an example of the disparity.

Race 1 and the two Juvy\'s are perfect examples. Your email was exactly my take away from BC day.

This is meant to be contructive not antagonistic.

NC Tony

NCT,

\"See my post on Happy Ticket a few weeks ago, She\'s a sprinter who stretched out in her last and ran a huge figure. I thought that effort taxed her. You\'d have to think she might be a \"bounce\" candidate in her second consecutive 9F race. I wasted money on her \"just in case\". \"

That could be the case. In hindsight, I really didn\'t like her other route performances as much. So maybe I was just putting too much weight on her last effort to begin with. I should have hit that exacta either way, but it\'s hard to complain too much when you cash a $60 horse.  

[HP]

Re: Cali figs

For those of you who think the Cali Figs are too slow because the juvi Cali horses ran so well, these six had previously (before the BC) jumped five or more points, and there are others who jumped three or so...

Folklore
KTemplar
SStone
FSam
HHughes
PVow

So it\'s not unusual for 2yos to move up five or so points...especially since both of them had decent patterns going in (NO BOUNCES and a pair for SWonder and very little backup for Wild Fit).  

HP

[jimbo66]

HP,

Fair point, but you are not reading all of what I wrote.  To repeat, the STRONGEST example of the california figs not holding us was the first race on the card.  At the weights, Captain Squire was about the slowest horse in the race, and Ghostofachance was right there with him.  They ran 1-2.  They were in the \"3\" range, while the NYers were running 0 and negative.  

I want to wait for Jerry to do the card and give his comments, but you are making it hard

There are more recent examples as well.  Taste of Paradise was running much slower figs out West, then moves to negative 3 at Belmont and another presumably strong performance on Saturday.

And you can point out all you want about how 2 year olds move up, we all know that is true.  But when the specific two year olds that DO move up in a sequence of races all have the same point in common (coming from California, having slow TG figures, quicker figures from other sources), then it at least begs the question to analyze it.  (Which Jerry did say he would look at it in his other post and he was also not surprised it was raised).

To sweep it all under the category of \"2 year olds moving up\", is not a prudent approach at all, to me.

But we all look at things differently and maybe you are right.  (I am not necessarily saying I am right that the Calif. Figs are off, I am only saying it should be looked at).

[miff]

HP,

Your point regarding young horses jumping up is something we have all seen and believe in.The point regarding the Cal Figs which poses serious questions are(for ex)Gotaghostofachance(4) Captain Squire(3)Taste of Paradise(4) just from one card.It is HIGHLy unlikely that these older horse all together, and all of a sudden, decided to \"jump up\"

It is far more likely that Jerry is of the opinion that the Cal surfaces are much faster than other fig makers and handicappers. The results,however would seem to indicate that the CAl TG figs may be too slow for the runners in question.

What is also interesting is that all the comparable data I looked at has the runners patterns about the same which means the disagreement probably lies in the variant.

[HP]

Jimbo,

I hear you.  I didn\'t really think about the first race.  

Worst ride nominee:  Gary Stevens on Knight\'s Templar.  With all due respect to Folklore.  

HP

[dlf]

Miff: You wrote, \"The most interesting fig of the day has to be Stevie Wonder Boy who carried 5 lbs more than the older Magna Graduate and ran within 2/5ths raw time.Looks like Stevie will get a 1-ish, imo.\"

Don\'t know if you were at the track, but the wind was really howling those first two, non-BC races. It seemed to calm down quite a bit by the Juv Fillies and then calm even further by post time of the Juveniles. Perhaps this accounts for the raw time discrepancies.

[miff]

DLF,

Agree, the exact wind measurement and direction for each race will be available on Wednesday.I think that 1.41.3(one turn Belmont) for two year olds is fast especially when the next dirt race, one hour later,with the faster sprinters in training ONLY went 1.08.4(don\'t know how much the wind factored in)

[dlf]

It looked and felt to me like it was blowing dead straight west to east (headwind on the backstretch, tailwind for the stretch).

[miff]

Even more interesting because the 2yr olds both went 45+ and 1:10+ into a headwind by your view, faster than the older horses in the 2nd who went 46.4.Your view that the wind was more severe races one and two seems to have merit.

[flushedstraight]

That ride by Steven\'s was eerie similar to his ride on Bella Bellucci in the 01 BC juve fillies at Belmont. It\'s hard to believe he had KT in the right spot.

dlf,

\"It looked and felt to me like it was blowing dead straight west to east (headwind on the backstretch, tailwind for the stretch).\"


I agree. It was still pretty stiff against them in the backstretch for the Juvenile filly race, but I think it eased a little later. I wasn\'t keeping notes. I just especially noticed it for the Juvenile filly race because the fractions were so fast despite it being into the wind early. That pace was VERY fast and IMO it accounts for the collapse later in the race.  The winner was pretty darn good despite the slowish final time.