California Figs

[brokerstip]

HP,

I was sitting with a Rags player as I usually do on \'big\' days. I had the TG\'s with me.
First instance, I had printed Len\'s picks from the his seminar posted on this site.
I saw he felt SWB was a big time key. So, I grabbed the Rags and, lo and behold, Stevie was every bit as fast as FS and had a super looking line.
I remember remarking that SWB was way overbet based on TG\'s.
I passed.

Second Instance:

I felt going in the 1st race that the 9 was going to be my key at a generous price (was 20-1).
The 8 was a toss based on tg\'s.
Another friend, (and probaably the best pure hadicapper I hang with).
He doesn\'t use either TG\'s or Rags. He loved the 6 in the first race.
So, I went with the 1-6-9 only to be nipped by the 8.  

Both these races had Cal shippers outrunning their TG numbers.

I play California most of the time and the numbers work fine out there but there is a notorious lack of ship ins for their average daily race cards.

I think Jimbo poses a very fair question.  

[HP]

Brokerstip,

Did not play the first race.  

I used TG and I thought Stevie Wonderboy was an obvious contender.  I can\'t really address your other points because I didn\'t see the Rags for comparison...  

The one thing I\'m noticing in this debate is the differences in how handicappers view a race.  For me, big numbers for a 2yo are a NEGATIVE.  I would assume a 2yo would bounce off a number approaching zero, and when they do it twice in a row I think they are throwouts, so FSamauri was always off my tickets.  They are not three year olds or older horses who are going to improve off those huge numbers...  They\'re babies!  

If, as you say, StevieWonderboy looked close on Rags, I might have thrown him out too!  On TG, StevieWonderboy looked like a horse that could really move up; I love them off pairs, and the only downside was his slight layoff before the BC.  I also didn\'t see him as being taxed by the reasonable figs he had already run, unlike FSamauri.  

Given that he won, I can\'t say he was \"overbet,\" but I think we can agree that neither of us were happy looking at the tote...  

I don\'t think it\'s a case of SBoy \"outrunning\" his Cali #\'s, I think he looked like a horse that could improve, and did.  

I find it hard to believe that Jerry will weigh in on this and say anything but that he thinks the Cali numbers are right...but it\'s his board!

HP

I often look at 3-4 sets of speed figures and 2-3 sets of pace figures. There are often differences. Even when they are similar, the smaller differences will cause you to come to different conclusions about the patterns. I think you need a pretty large sample of horses (shippers) to determine if an individual figure or two are off, an unexpected result was just a random move, or whether an entire circuit is off.  

TG and RAGs should be pretty easy to compare, but there is no exact formula for comparison with other sets of figures because those other guys occasionally partially build ground loss, weight and other things into the track variant (too long to discuss and unwelcomed here) perhaps without realizing it and certainly without the knowledge of 99.9% of the people that use the figures.    

[HP]

Class,

You must bet a million dollars a day!  If I looked at that much stuff to make a bet my head would explode at the window.  

In fact, I think I spend (this year too, despite my resolution to the contrary) WAY too much time looking at BCup stuff.  I think I\'d get better results just looking at the sheets the day of the races.  Wait till next year!  

HP

[jimbo66]

HP,

Have you taken into consideration that the way you play the 2 year old races might not be the way everybody else does?  (I really don\'t mean that sarcastically, even though it might sound like that)

I really don\'t know how you could have looked at Stevie Wonderboy\'s sheet and saw his top was 5 points slower than First Samurai and 6 points slower than Henny Hughes, and come to the conclusion that 4-1 was a good price.  

I congratulate you for coming up with him and I agree he was \"usable\".  I believe the quote in the seminar was something like \"very likely or most likely to move forward but will it be enough in a very fast group of 2 year olds\".  If this was the quote for a horse that was 8-1 or 10-1, then I think you can make a case to key him.  At 4-1, that is very tough to do for me and I would guess for most.  

To be honest, I find it absolutely amazing that you bet Stevie Wonderboy.  Not because you used TGraph to come up with him, but because of your own specific betting style, which you have often espoused on this board.  You are the same poster who discussed Sensation with me last week and said you would bet against her at a short price (2-1 or 5-2 was what you quoted).  I came back and said she would be 5-1 or more, which I thought was value.  You said you wouldn\'t \"quibble over the price\".  There are other examples on the board of you pointing to 5-1 as too short a price to bet.  I am not criticizing that strategy at all, as a matter of fact it is probably damn prudent.  But to take 4-1 on a horse who was 5 or 6 points too slow to start with, when you normally don\'t even bet horses in that range, that is quite a leap of faith in your expectation of his forward move.  

We probably killed this California figs thing in the absence of the figs for the day.  I did see some Beyer figs for the card.  Folklore bounced to an 87 (Class perhaps you can do a writeup on how the pace influenced that seemingly slow figure).  Stevie Wonderboy got a 105 or so.  They gave Saint Liam a 112.  I didn\'t see the Distaff, which could be an interesting figure.

jimbo,

\"Class perhaps you can do a writeup on how the pace influenced that seemingly slow figure\"

An invitation?  Holy cow!

I do think Folklore and Knights Templar were used up by that pace and ran better than their low Beyer figures suggest. IMO, Folklore was much the best.  

Several other horses that raced just off the pace were also probably close enough to it to be impacted, but to lesser degrees. It depends on how close they were, for how long, and how much ability they have.

[HP]

Jimbo,

\"Have you taken into consideration that the way you play the 2 year old races might not be the way everybody else does? (I really don\'t mean that sarcastically, even though it might sound like that)\"

Yes, that\'s what my post is about.  I could be wrong, but if you and I look at First Samauri, you see a horse that is going to run close to another ONE or so, and I see a horse that will be out of the money, or close to it, because that ONE is a HUGE number for a 2yo.  I think a 2yo that has run in the five-six range is more likely to pop a big number next time out than a horse like FSam is to repeat it.  

\"I really don\'t know how you could have looked at Stevie Wonderboy\'s sheet and saw his top was 5 points slower than First Samurai and 6 points slower than Henny Hughes, and come to the conclusion that 4-1 was a good price.\"

I didn\'t say it was a good price.  Did you read my post?  I said I was sure brokerstip and I weren\'t happy looking at the tote and seeing he was as short as he was.

\"You are the same poster who discussed Sensation with me last week and said you would bet against her at a short price (2-1 or 5-2 was what you quoted). I came back and said she would be 5-1 or more, which I thought was value. You said you wouldn\'t \"quibble over the price\".\"

I said this meaning that Sensation was my first throwout in the race and it wouldn\'t matter if she was 100-1 (that\'s what I meant by \"quibble over price\"...the price didn\'t matter to me, that\'s how sure I was throwing her out)...she bounced before and figured to bounce again, and did.  

I used Stevie Wonderboy in P3\'s and exactas and tris.  I didn\'t play him to win at 4-1.

I will also admit that I am not the greatest oddsplayer/moneymanager!  

Hope this clears things up...  

HP

[jimbo66]

HP,

Ok.  I guess we are not that far off and I do hear you.

I don\'t disagree with you that SW was usable.  I keyed Henny Hughes in the race and cashed the exacta.

I also agree with you that betting against lightly raced horses that have run big numbers is a good strategy.  

I guess my point is that the reason this is a good strategy is because there is VALUE in doing so.  Stevie Wonderboy was not 4-1 because his Tgraph figure was a \"6\" and people thought he could move forward 6 points and win.  He was 4-1 because he looked better on other figures. So, he was tough to take at that price as a key horse, although his win was also no surprise.  (sounds like a contradiction, but it isn\'t)

I see you didn\'t bet him at 4-1, so we don\'t disagree.  I did the same as you, I used him on pick-4\'s as well.  The pick-4 that \"almost was\".  Went 6 deep against LITF and couldn\'t come up with Silver Train.  I don\'t know how deep I would have had to have gone to use him.  Maybe 9.....  

[jbelfior]

Jimbo--


I always respect MOST of your posts on here. However, i am getting a bit tired of all the shots people take at CH. He probably has forgotten more about this game than most of us on this board (certainly including myself) have learned.


Perhaps you can justify that PLEASANT HOME\'s 9 lenghth win had nothing to do with the contentious pace or that FLOWER ALLY\'s improved effort had nothing to do with the easier pace in the Classic as opposed to the JCGC or that BORREGO\'s sub-par effort had nothing to do with the fact that the pace in the Classic was slower than in the Gold Cup or Pacific Classic.



Good luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- I should be doing the BC later today and will post, will make further comments when I can.

I used Stevie in tris and supers, got busted in the third spot-- my exotic play was against FS, as opposed to on anyone, although I made a win bet on HH as well.
Stevie was the 5th fastest horse on Beyer, who usually has Cal faster than we do.
He was faster on Ragozin. The other California horse-- Brother Derek-- was much slower on Ragozin.

[HP]

Jimbo,

I did the early pick three on the cheap and missed and then gave up the multi-racers...  Saved me money.  

I got a little fixated on Lion Tamer in the sprint.  Silver Wagon was about my fifth choice.  I decided that I liked Attila\'s Storm as my \"move up\" 3yo.  I thought those detention barns would be effective (kidding!)...

HP

[jimbo66]

I can\'t resist one more point HP.  Just to clarify, I am bringing this point up not to be argumentative, but to discuss different viewpoints.  I guess there is a risk of overdoing this Breeders Cup post mortem.  But I like to convince myself that I eventually learn from my mistakes.  

Interesting that you would not have played the co-fastest horse in the race (sensation) at any price (100-1), because you thought she would bounce.

It turns out if she ran her number, she would have won (assuming that Jerry\'s figures are somewhat comparable to the 87 that Beyer gave folklore).

What percentage chance did you give her to bounce?  99% chance?  Not realistic.  

She bounced the first time, so she MUST bounce the second time?  Also not realistic.  Your own post earlier pointed out how unpredictable that 2 year olds are.  And as Jerry pointed out in the seminar, the horse is less likely to bounce the 2nd time, than the first time.  

There were three figures from Juveline Fillies at the \"2\" level.  One by Folklore and two by Sensation.  You could argue that Sensation was less likely to like the stretchout to 1 1/16, but that still left her as the filly with 2 of the 3 fastest figures in the race, a decent post position, 2 wins over the Belmont surface and 10-1 odds.

Tough for me to see that she was a toss at any price.

Although she ran 5th, so you were right....

[HP]

Joe,

Most of us can read a Racing Form and do look at pace, to varying degrees.  The question is how much should that influence final figs?  I think Jerry\'s point is very simple...he makes numbers based on final times, beaten lengths, etc., and NOT pace.  There\'s nothing stopping you from looking into pace on your own, or giving more weight to one number than another...  In fact, Jerry always takes pain to note potential ground loss in his seminars/handicapping, and that is to some degree a function of pace...  I\'m sure Class understands all this, and his intentions are good, but he gets pissed that Jerry won\'t go into this \"what if?\" world of pace-influenced figures...and maybe he should just accept that Jerry does what he does and that\'s...it!  

Class should be happy that nobody has boxed up pace handicapping as neatly as TG and this way he can use his unique insights to make more money (and I\'m not being sarcastic).  

How about Pleasant Home at 30-1!  Jimbo, take note that this is another one this genius made a \"quick throwout!\"  I bet all the heavy sheets/TG guys saw what I saw -- she looked like a prime bounce candidate off a trio of super races.  How else could she be 30-1?  The guys that ignored that and posted about taking her before the race sure read the tote better than me...  My brain was locked.  

HP

[beyerguy]

At some point you guys should at least consider the fact that both Sensation and Stevie Wonderboy were running much farther than ever before.  Wouldn\'t this mean that the figures were not very likely to be indicitive of what they might do at the longer distance?  Surely, Sensation looked like a huge question mark at a longer distance, while SW looked to like it.  I know it doesn\'t work out all the time, but sprint figures are not the best indicator of what a horse might do at a longer distance, at least in my opinion.

[HP]

Jimbo,

Our posts crossed, and I did make a note to you in there about Pleasant Home...

\"She (Sensation) bounced the first time, so she MUST bounce the second time? Also not realistic.\"

Well...she bounced sprinting.  Now she\'s stretching out off the top against...these horses.  As a 2yo filly, I DID think she was 99% likely to bounce, and I was confident enough to post it (I try not to do that kind of thing lightly...).  If there was a window you could bet on individual horses to bounce I would\'ve emptied out on this one...

I don\'t know if this makes sense, but I think 2yos are a lot more unpredictable BEFORE they pop the big number.  I think the problem is you don\'t know which one is gonna POP.  

Folklore on the other hand...had not bounced yet.  Tougher to throw out, but at 5/2, yeah, throw her out!  

HP