California Figs

[jimbo66]

Joe B,

Your post is non-sense.  I am taking no shot at Class.  In fact, to be honest, I collaborated with Class on several races on BC day.  We both bet Flower Alley.

The \"shot\" I was taking, was at Len, not Class.  Feel free to defend his honor, if you must.

I don\'t need to justify anything about the races you suggested, but I will comment, since you asked.  To clarify first, I do believe that pace matters in the race and I do factor it into my own bets.  In the past, when I have made comments to Class, it is because 1)  Pace is not the answer for everything and sometimes he makes it sound that way and 2) Since this is the Thorograph board, I don\'t see why he wants to talk about pace all the time.  

Let\'s start with Pleasant Home.  You say her win was pace aided.  I guess I would buy this if the horses to beat in the race, were all part of the pace.  But Stellar jayne, Ashado, Happy Ticket and Society Selection all sat off the pace.  Yes, the pace was had and the pacesetters collapsed, but the \"figure horses\" weren\'t part of it.  I don\'t know how this horse wins by 10.  He had 5 figures in a row that were a couple lengths short of competitive.  You can make a case that she could win, but for her to win by 10 is tough to take.  

Your other two are much easier to explain.  Flower Alley bounced in the JC Gold Cup.  He ran two negative 2 races at Saratoga.  He was rank early in the Gold Cup, which he never had been before, and backed up before the turn.  It was a classic bounce.  You could bet him to run back to his Saratoga figures in the Breeders Cup.  I did, so did Class, so did a few others on this board.  

Borrego is an even a better example.  He has never run faster than a \"0\" in his life.  Then he runs a negative 3.75 in the JC Gold Cup.  How many people on this board pointed to Aptitude a few years back and said that Borrego has a similar running line?  Many people.  He was an absolute bet against in this race, regardless of the pace scenario.  You really think he ran a figure 6 to 8 oints worse this time because the pace was \"moderate\"?  You are the one who should explain that, not me.

[jimbo66]

Beyerguy,

Yes, the distance matters.  Jerry mentioned it for both horses in the seminar.  Wonderboy had a great distance pedigree and Jerry said that Sensation\'s gave no indication either way.  I had a conversation with Michael D about Sensation (before the race) and he thought that her pedigree was troublesome for the distance.

But there is a big difference between factoring in a pedigree and saying that \"the figures were not very likely to be indicitive of what they might do at the longer distance\".  

Their actual figures were still the best indication of what they would run on Saturday.  Pedigree supposition is a factor, but certainly not the most important.

Plus, do you really consider a 1 1/16 race at Belmont a true distance race?  It is a one turn elongated sprint.  

[beyerguy]

One turn or two, there is a huge difference between 6.5 and 8.5 furlongs.  I actually think one turn races are tougher on sprinters trying to stretch out than two turn races.

Pedigree is one thing, how they run the sprints is another.  No way did Sensation look like a horse that wanted more ground to me in her previous efforts.

As for the best indication, sometimes yes, sometimes no, but the odds should be there to guess yes as I\'m sure you practice.

I think the Pleasant Home result was the most interesting one of the day.  

Going in, I expected a competitive pace that would help horses like Happy Ticket, Pleasant Home and Society Selection. Visually (at least while at the track), I got the impression that the early part of the race \"was\" competitive. Plus, two of the three horse above finished 1st and 2nd (a combination I did not have - damn it) while coming from way off the pace.

However, numerically, the pace and final time do not look especially fast to me based on the other races that day, all the high quality horses in the race, and the huge 9 length win.

Several second string horses that were on or close to the pace at various calls  collapsed very badly (worse than you would expect if the pace was neutral) and a few of the good ones were reasonably close at one point or another and didn\'t finish very well. However, none of the other closers (like Society Selection and In the Gold) ran nearly as well as Pleasant Home on a relative basis.  

I\'m interested to hear everyone\'s point of view on this result.

[HP]

Ashado looked vulnerable, especially given the pace scenario and the way it looked the track was playing to this amateur.  I liked In the Gold, and I took it as a positive sign that she was taking some money.  Happy Ticket was an easy toss for me off the pair of tops.  I used Stellar and Sweet Symphony (despite several negative comments during the week I decided to overlook after seeing Intercontinental win despite Bailey\'s assertion that he \"wanted no part of a mile and a quarter.\").  

Pleasant Home was a toss for me off three big races...oops, she ran another!  

Asides from seeing that the pace wasn\'t \"slow,\" I\'m not sure what the result means...  Might not have been a pace thing...maybe some of the better ones just didn\'t have it and PHome brought her \"A\" game...  HP

[twoshoes]

< However, i am getting a bit tired of all the shots people take at CH. He probably has forgotten more about this game than most of us on this board (certainly including myself) have learned. >

Agreed - the trouble is he insists on talking about it.

[richiebee]

CH:

   Yeah, I know how it is when you catch a $60 winner. You\'ll be happy to hear our thoughts on this one 8 months from now, maybe 8 years. And no, I dont know how to make a frikkin smiley face, but I\'ll indulge you with some observations:

1) As I have posted previously, if you look at PHs Beyers, even taking into account what you call \"the baked in wide\", this horse was no match for the contenders in the race. TG had a much better line on PH, a line which made her part of the mix.

2) Trainers matter always, jockeys matter always. I think they matter more in races such as the BC races where the competition is deep, where there are big fields, where 8 or 9 of the runners are qualified to win. Shug had won at least 2 previous runnings of this race (Personal Ensign, Inside Info)(is there anyone I missed?) and has always been dangerous on big NYRA days, having won four of the six BC Preview races one year in the old days when all the Preview races were run on one day. I think if you look back over the years at NYRA, the number of horses saddled by Shug for the Phipps who went off at 30/1 in a Grade 1 stake is... a very low number.

3) Self indictment, count 2.  (A) I didn\'t handicap the Distaff enough, and did not have enough real time awareness of the tote to see an obvious overlay; (B) one of my many Hcapping shortcomings is that when I decide a certain bloodline is great on an off track (Pleasant Colony, Con Cielo and Relaunch are my personal favorites, as was Hagley, but his line is basically gone) I basically abandon them on a fast track, sometimes to my detriment. If the track would have been \"good\", I would have been all over this filly based on the fact that Pleasant Colony was her maternal grand sire.

[BitPlayer]

I think traffic may also have played a part in some of the big names not firing.  They\'re used to clear sailing in small fields, and Saturday they were running between and behind horses, and maybe having to check slightly from time to time.  That was coupled with horses that are beyond or near the end of their comfort zone, distance-wise.

richiebee

I\'m not so much interested in handicapping the race after the fact as I am in trying to figure out well everyone actually ran. A 9 length win over horses like Ashado, Society Selection, etc... suggests a huge performance. But the time of the race didn\'t look especially fast to me. Often, in situations like that the pace is very fast and it\'s possible to conclude that many of the contenders were used up and that allowed some closer to win big without really running all that fast.  In this case though, the pace doesn\'t look all that fast (the fractions don\'t look extreme). If the race really did collapse you would think that Society Selection and perhaps In the Gold would also have been well clear of Ashado and some others that were closer even if not as impressive as Pleasant Home (PH obviously ran well. It\'s a matter of degree). Maybe as bitplayer suggested there were some tough trips in there that weren\'t obvious or some distance issues.

I didn\'t see the Beyer figure yet and Jerry has given out the TG figures either.  

[rando]

Speaking as one who had two key horses for the BC in PH and Shirrocco. sp? the real question is WHY? PH race at Keenland was spectacular because of the bias (according to my eyes) that day that race at Keenland. That was major reason I bet accordingly. No differance than the path that Shirrocco ran inthe ARC vs.the horses that finished in front. 5W 5W 5W

[richiebee]

CH:

  In retrospect, maybe Society Selection moved too early. In the Gold didn\'t move at all.

  Trainer angle, redux: Shug has 5 seconds in the Distaff to go along with his 3 winners.

  Ashado has won 3 G1s this year, and is the likely Eclipse winner, no?

rando,

I agree on that. She was very wide and closed against against a slow pace on a track that might have been tilted against her style. Under any circumtances, it couldn\'t have been as good a set of conditions as she was likely to get at Belmont Saturday. That\'s why I threw her in.  

>In retrospect, maybe Society Selection moved too early. In the Gold didn\'t move at all. <

Could be?

>Ashado has won 3 G1s this year, and is the likely Eclipse winner, no?<

Who else?

Let\'s wait for Jerry\'s figure.

[jimbo66]

Richiebee,

I keyed Society Selection (as I always seem to do) and was watching her the entire race.  She didn\'t move early.  She moved just when she needed to and saved ground all the way.  If the rail wasn\'t dead, it was a perfect trip.  She was just not good enough.  As they hit the turn, I thought I had the winner.  Then a few strides later, the other horse was gone and I was praying that SS would get by Ashado for the exacta.

[rando]

SORRY   Can\'t spell. KEENELAND