California Figs

[NoCarolinaTony]

I also think Soc Solection got hung up and banged with Ashado and Capeside Lady who was dying on the rail. Pleasant Home was running free and blew by those two on the outside  (a great inside out ride by C Valasquez) while they were racing each other. Anyway Once she got the lead I was Begging for SS to get place and it seemed like forever for those two to finally get camera time at the wire.

Again Pleasant Home last Race at Kee closing into a speed bias should have told us all to be aware that she was sitting on an A race.

NC Tony

[richiebee]

Jimbo:

     Glad you cashed a couple of tickets. It takes a brave man to defend CH, and an even braver man to admit to collaborating with him, but you guys both work hard at it and I appreciate (both of) your observations and insights.

     Now that BC is over and its too early to get on the Derby, where will you ply your trade? Waiting for GP, which should have full fields for Jan/ Feb/ Mar with the closing of FG?

[rando]

CH   On Oct. 9 I had bias at Keeneland Big Rail Med Speed and outside closers on turf. With that in mind it further increased the value of that race beyond just the pace or the fact speed was carrying. Big rail is not a designation I COME TO VERY OFTEN. PH was 1W3W5-6W3W in that race at Keeneland.

[rando]

Correction I had outside on the turf at keeneland Oct. 9 not outside closers. Refer to my last post.

[rando]

Brokerstip   Am surprised you didn\'t mention the rags #\'s onAce,Shakespeare,and English channel and make the comparison to the TG #\'s! I had both and use only as one of many factors considered when trying to collect. But I\'m a bettor that handicaps to keep the wolves away. By the way Thanks to JB FOR HIS PASSION TOWARDS HIS WORK. Disclaimer I make no negative comments toward the work of Either Len or Jerry. I\'m trying to cash flow my habit.

[brokerstip]

HP,

I don\'t often post here because I don\'t want to get into any prolonged debate.
SWB had an excellent pattern on both sheets. He had much stronger number power on Rags. That is, either they had HH and FS slower or SWB faster than the TG\'s.

Either way,(and I have used speed figs for 30years) SWB was imho a much \'stronger\' line on RAGs than TG\'s. And, I would think that is why Len singled him out as the \'key\' to the race. I agree that the TG\'s had him looking good but their analysis tiptoed to HH (which was also a great call).


Me, I will wait for the maestro to sort out the \'apparent\' difference in the Cal. #\'s.

[marcus]

I\'ve wondered if the So Cal fracs were a function of the racing surface , maint etc + It\'s been said that the Cal Bread is on the upswing partially due cross breeding w/ KY breads  . I know it\'s not that simple , but those are a couple things that I think about when looking at a horse coming east from So Cal.  

[jbelfior]

Jimbo---

I hear you. Not everything is answered by bounces off of career tops either. I think we all try to look to final numbers, pace, trips, etc as to why a certain horse did not run the way we expected.


That\'s what makes this game so fascinating. We all have our opinions and we all tend to lean on the handicapping tools that we are most comfortable with. For you it may be final numbers, patterns, and some pace analysis.


Although CH tends to talk about pace more than the average poster here, I\'m sure he would be the first to admit that performance ratings are an invaluable tool.

That being said, although LITF was not himself on Saturday, a 3 wide, 3 abreast move at Belmont going 6f is a shortcut to defeat. Not suprised by the fact that all 4 sprint winners at Belmont have now come from inside the 4 post.


Good Luck,
Joe B.  

[brokerstip]

Rando,

I didn\'t look at the Rags for every race. Was afraid of Information Overload which is the Mad Cow and/or Avian Flu of horseplayers.

My curiosity was aroused when HH opened up near double digits and SWB was 7/2.

Joe B.

\"That being said, although LITF was not himself on Saturday, a 3 wide, 3 abreast move at Belmont going 6f is a shortcut to defeat. Not suprised by the fact that all 4 sprint winners at Belmont have now come from inside the 4 post.\"

I agree. That 3w or 4W duel is a very tough trip.

[RICH]

her last was a 3/4? move threw her top, she was well rested and to me was one of the only ones projected to move foward. I thought the last was a big tip off to another move foward.

[bdhsheets]

Rich wrote:

\"her last was a 3/4? move threw her top, she was well rested and to me was one of the only ones projected to move foward. I thought the last was a big tip off to another move foward.\"

I was wondering when someone would point out that Pleasant Home had an explosive line. One never knows how big the forward move will be, but for many, its hard to bet when they look several points too slow. That\'s why they\'re 30-1, but you only need to be right once in 20-30 attempts to make it worthwhile.

[jbelfior]

bdsheets:


I\'m interested in your explosive line theory. Please explain.( I may have missed your previous post if you have already done this.)....thanks.




Good Luck,
Joe B.

[twoshoes]

Joe B.

I\'m guessing he means she was forging at 1 3/4 to 1 for four or five straight races and it could  be interpreted that she was due to move to the next level. She did and picked a grand time to do it. I\'ve found this to be a powerful line in the past. One example that comes to  mind is Editor\'s Note in the 96? Belmont. Forging at 5\'s and blew to a new top of 2 in the Belmont. Check Pleasant Home\'s sheet and then go to the archives and check the sheet on Editor\'s Note and file the pattern away for future reference.

Good Luck,
Mark