A different Breeders Cup Topic

[beyerguy]

\" \"She needed to be straightened out,\'\' Dutrow said. \"She had front-end issues, hind-end issues. Now, she\'s got no issues.\'\'\"

I\'m sure Carl Nafzger, trainer of a Kentucky Derby / Breeder\'s Cup Classic winner, is a total incompetent.  This guy has some nerve...

[richiebee]

Beyerguy:

       When I met TGJB at the Spa this August, I mentioned to him that I thought it was strange that Buckram Oak would have horses both with the infamous Mr. Dutrow and Carl Nafzger, who is the \"hay oats and water\" poster boy. Nafzger was subjecting his own employees to drug testing before the various state racing commissions were.

       RD Jr is coming off as very hard to like, and as Yogi once said of an injury he himself had sustained, \"X rays of the brain proved negative\".

[beyerguy]

I have noticed with Drugtrow that the sudden turn arounds seem to have disappeared.  No more claim, run them back four days later, and smash through the previous lifetime top.  It is now more of the \"time\" factor.  Maybe I\'m wrong, but this has been my obsevation since the detention barns went into effect.  The winning percentage is still high, but at the lower levels of the game, he is winning in a different manner than he did early in the year.

beyer,

I don\'t pay as much attention to his claimers, but he\'s been using that 2 month layoff pattern with the higher class horses where I focus my attention for awhile. If I get a chance, I\'ll take a detailed look at his stats via Formulator. The suspension period sort of screwed everything up because the DRF was counting the horses returning to his \"name\" after the suspension as trainer changes when it was the same barn.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Yes you are right because each horse has or had a different probablity to run an off race over another independent of each other making it a very complex equation. But all math is doable with a computer/software/time.

NC Tony

[davidrex]

     beyer guy,
  Have noticed and read on-line same feelings you are having.

Tighter conditions and slight improvement in testing seems to have caused the change in m.o.

Got to tip my hat to the thief, some of the earlier generation claim ...drug...step up...run in 4 days.....have taken well to retirement.

PARTYpokerON!

[kev]

One thing I have seen with the so-called super tainers, is that most of them can\'t get those high win % out of horses coming off long lay-offs.

[NoCarolinaTony]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The formula is fine, the question is whether you
> agree with the 45% figure Jerry is using.  
>
> I am not sure what Jerry is using 45% to
> represent.  If it is 45% that one of the entrants
> will run an \"x\", then 45% is just an average based
> on 1000\'s of horses, not the individual chance of
> each horse in the race based on her pattern.
>
> If you accept the 45% as a valid variable, then
> the formula is most definitely 100% usable to
> express the chances of 12 of the 13 horses running
> that \"x\".
>
>

Yes Jimbo thank you for correcting my mistake. I\'m sorry but I did that rather quickly and misinterperted the intial question. Subsequently I went and checked your math and you are most certainly correct. Hey I\'m in South Carolina at our manufacturing plant the past few days and you know how \"slow\" us southerners are.

I agree the real question is how accurate is the 45% is across the entire population.

NC Tony

[escovedo]

nonnight,

Total agreement on steroids, Pletcher, Irwin (LOL!) but reserving judgement on Shug.  The clenbuterol issue is a joke as far as I\'m concerned;everbody\'s been using it since the 80\'s.  It\'s just now with Allday, EPO, etc. it\'s truly scary!

es

[bobphilo]

es,

I share your concern about steriods - their use scares me too. When Ben Johnson tested positive after winning the Olympic 100 meters, he was disgraced and banned for life. That\'s how seriously track and field takes the issue. As a handicapper and bettor I detest being cheated. I also hate seeing honest trainers who try to run clean struggle to survive, while their cheating colleagues prosper and have armies of fans who bitterly attack all those who criticize their \"heros\". In addition, I also consider myself an ethical human being, and to see these guys giving some poor innocent animal sustances known to cause cancer cancer and renal failure, disgusts me. Anabolic steriods make muscles tremendously stronger, while the bones and ligaments that support them, if anything, are made more suseptable to injury. Worse of all, vets who have taken an oath to heal horses and were trained in state-supported vet schools (our tax dollars) use their skill to cheat the sport and hurt or kill horses in the process. Aside from that, steroids are great.

Bob